China Beer Production and Barley Balance Sheet in Nov. 2013

By CnAgri2014-01-03 10:00:36 Print

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, beer production by medium and large breweries registered 2.8929 million kiloliters in Nov. and 47.65 million kiloliters in Jan. ~ Nov., up 8.5% and 3.37% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
　　
Cereal products consumption registered 405,000MT in Nov., converted to 542,000MT cereals, of which, 208,000MT was malt. Without price advantage, wheat consumption for beer production declined and malt accounted for 82%.

208,000 MT barley was consumed for beer production and 315,000 MT for various uses in Oct. barley inventory was 1.372 million MT at the end of Nov., suggesting a monthly consumption index of 4.36.
　　
Barley imports were 97,000 MT in Nov., 2.139 million MT in Jan.-Nov. and are estimated to be 2.3 million MT in 2013/2014. Barley consumption for feed use was subdued by abundant corn supply. Total demand is estimated to be 4.554 million MT in the crop year. Year-end barley inventory is predicted to be 0.706 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 15.52%.
　　
Barley price was RMB1,889/MT in Nov. and RMB1,901/MT in May ~ Nov., down 2.72% and 5.94% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Barley price has increased for 3 months in a row. Barley import price averaged $313/MT in Nov. and $335/MT in May ~ Nov., up 1.77% and 11.98% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Taking import tariff into consideration, the import cost was RMB2266/MT in Nov. and RMB2432/MT in May-Nov., up 6.87% and 9.03% respectively on year-on-year basis. Import cost increase determines domestic barley price to rise. 

Though abundant international supply, domestic barley price still increased driven by domestic grain price rising, estimating at RMB2042/MT with growth rate of 2-3%. 

In view of falling barley price, barley acreage and production are predicted to drop to 561,000 hectares and 1.897 million MT respectively next year. Barley imports are predicted to increase to 2.7 million MT next year driven by consumption for beer increase. And import price will rise to RMB2287/MT. Domestic barley consumption is predicted to be 4.69 million MT. Year-end barley inventory and safety index are predicted to be stable next year.