China Grain Production & Consumption in Nov. 2013

By CnAgri2014-01-06 09:20:57 Print

According to historical data released by National Bureau of Statistics, grain consumption in November increased year-on-year,driven by recovery of feed consumption and industrial consumption. The consumption growth rate is not great. Domestic grain stocks increased month-on-month. The consumption coefficient kept stable.
　　
Grain consumption for food use was 27.852 million MT in Nov., including 10.033 million MT consumed by rural households, 7.971 million MT by urban households and 9.848 million MT by the catering industry, down 0.13%, down 2.14%, up 2.38% and unchanged respectively on the year-on-year basis. Grain consumption for food use totaled 262 million MT in Jan. ~ Nov., a growth of 2.45% on the year-on-year basis.
　　
In the first half year, avian flu influenced meat poultry products’ supply, grain consumption increased in genera. In recent, with recovery of meat and egg consumption, grain consumption declined.
　　
Grain consumption for feed: according to National Bureau of Statistics, meat production totaled 58.03 million MT in Jan-Sept., up 1.30% YOY and is estimated to be 83.85 million MT in the whole year. Live hog slaughtered by scaled enterprises registered 19.884 million heads, up 1.61% from last year. Based on meat production and slaughter in Jan-Sept., meat production is forecast at 8.1411 million in Nov. and 74.047 million MT in Jan.-Nov., the former up 1.03% YOY. Live hog slaughter registered 62.12 million MT in Nov. and 624.8 million MT in Jan.-Nov.. According to China Ministry of Agriculture, live hog inventory of monitoring enterprises in Nov. increased 0.7% YOY and 0.20% MOM. Social live hog inventory is forecast at 463.6 million heads, up 2.46% YOY. Annual growth rate of meat production is predicted to be 2%. 
　　
Based on meat production, live hog inventory and classified feed consumption by scaled enterprises, feed consumption is forecast at 23.208 million MT, up 3.44% YOY; excluding consumption of imported soybean and other oil meal, actual grain consumption for feed is 17.456 million MT, up 5.98% YOY. Feed consumption totaled 222 million MT in Jan-Nov., up 2.15% YOY, among which, grain consumption for feed registered 164 million MT, up 3.06% YOY.
　　
As for breeding profit, live hog price was RMB15.83/kg in Nov., up 6.6% YOY.  With corn price decline, monthly ratio between pork and grain increased to 6.61, up 5.94% YOY, stable at a high level. In the market, price ration between pork and feed and that between meat and feed registered 4.69 and 7.46 respectively, up 2.30% and 1.52% respectively. Live hog breeding profit rose compared with the same period last year but poultry breeding profit declined. Price ratio between egg and feed and that between meat and feed was 3.13 and 5.05 respectively, down 5.96% and 3.75% respectively.
　　
Later feed consumption: according to monitoring data by Ministry of Agriculture, inventory of fertile sow in Nov. declined 2.30% YOY and 0.5% MOM. According to historical data, inventory of fertile sow registered 49.17 million MT, down 2.88%. Its inventory has declined for 3 months in a row. In later period, livestock inventory and production shall decline after being stable for a while.
　　
Annual feed consumption: in conclusion, grain consumption for feed totaled 183 million MT in 2013, up 3.55% from 2012, caused by high price of grain processing products and price decline of corn. Take soymeal price as an example, its price increased 22% YOY in the first 6 months in 2013 and declined later but the growth rate still registered 8% recently. In general, price increase of protein feed drove growth of grain consumption for feed.
　　
Grain consumption for alcohol production: as for fermented alcohol, the production of scaled enterprises, according to National Bureau of Statistics, registered 834,900 kiloliters in Nov. with monthly growth rate of 17.43% and totaled 8.1377 million kiloliters in Jan-Nov. with annual growth rate of 6.79%; according to historical data, the production growth rate in Nov. was 4.9% YOY and 13.6% MOM and production in Jan-Nov. totaled 8.169 million kiloliters, up 9.26% YOY.
　　
As for white spirit, according to National Bureau of Statistics, the production registered 1.2725 million kiloliters in Nov., up 11.88% YOY and totaled 10.8541 million kiloliters in Jan-Nov., up 7.46% YOY; according to historical data, the growth rate of production in Nov. was 10.56% YOY and11.3% MOM and production in Jan.-Nov. registered 11.382 million kiloliters, up 7.72% from last year.
　　
Calculated by 65% concentration of white spirit, alcohol production registered 834,900 kiloliters. Calculated by the direct fermentation ratio of 60%, production of grain alcohol registered 1.3312 million kiloliters. Since producing 1 MT alcohol needs 3.2 MT grain, grain consumption for alcohol was 3.4078 million MT, up 17.71% YOY and 12.73% MOM; grain consumption for beer registered 0.6424 million MT. Grain consumption for liquor registered 3.9502 million MT in Nov., up 14.94% YOY and up 7.1% MOM and totaled 41.2115 million MT in Jan.-Nov., up 7.37% YOY.
　　
Grain deep processing: starch price was RMB2825/MT in Nov., down 4.33% YOY and 1.94% MOM, without regard of RMB value change, down 1.664% YOY and 0.72% MOM. Price for alcohol continued rebounding to RMB5978/MT, down 5.22% YOY and up 3.17% MOM, without regard of RMB value change, down 2.54% YOY and up 4.39% MOM. Price increase of alcohol promoted its production growth.
　　
Domestic corn price was RMB2373/MT in Nov., down 0.67% YOY and 1.13% MOM,without regard of RMB value change, up 2.01% YOY and up 0.09% MOM. As for starch processed by domestic corn, the profit was RMB86/MT, profit of alcohol, RMB-136.44/MT and the profit margin was 3.03% and -2.28% respectively. Poor profit and loss in deep processing industry limit domestic corn consumption.

Recently, reduction of corn imported from U.S restrained its consumption in deep processing industry. Starch production is predicted to be 1.803 million MT and grain consumption to be 2.691 million MT in Nov. and 21.82 million MT and 32.57 million MT in Jan.-Nov. respectively. According to statistics from relevant departments, starch production and grain consumption were 22.53 million MT and 33.622 million MT in 2012. 
In comprehensive, grain consumption for industrial use registered 6.6412 million MT in Nov., up 12.14% YOY and down 0.56% MOM, and 73.778 million MT in Jan-Nov., up 6.17% YOY. Since GM corn MIR612 was banned from importing, deep processing industry will turn to domestic corn, so prices for deep processing products will increase and enterprises processing domestic corn resume production gradually, which promoted fair competition and weakened impacts of low priced American corn on domestic agricultural production and deep processing industry. 
　　
In overall, grain consumption totaled 54.438 million MT in Nov., grain stocks by month-end was 555.6 million MT and monthly consumption coefficient was 10.22.
　　
Fall grain harvest was in busy season in Nov. and the quantity registered 52.6 million MT. In 2013, grain production accumulated to 580 million MT, including rice 206.5 million MT, corn, 204 million MT, wheat, 89.512 million MT, barley, 1.445 million MT and other grains, 54.14 million MT.
　　
In view of grain purchase in 2013, it registered 112 million MT by the end of November, of which 55.3 million MT was purchased by state-owned enterprise. Purchase of state-owned enterprises was adjusted to 50.84 million MT in Oct.. Major grain stocks registered 500 million MT and 131 million MT in state-owned enterprises, 305 million MT in farmers and 64.31 million MT in other stocks.
　　
According to national grain bureau, direct grain purchased by state-owned enterprises totaled 6.13 million MT in Sept., among which, Hunan, Shandong and Henan ranked top 3 with purchase of 0.708 million MT 0.536 million MT and 0.524 million MT respectively. Grain sale by state-owned enterprises totaled 20.84 million MT in Sept., among which, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang and Liaoning ranked top 3 with sales of 2.267 million MT, 2.189 million MT and 1.779 million MT respectively.
　　
In 2013/14, farmers’ grain sale ratio is 54.23%, lower than the same period of last year, 56.01%. Prices decline of corn and rice lowered down farmers’ desire of selling and thereby caused sale ration decline.

　　Grain safety index: in 2013, planting acreage of grain crops registered 112 million hectares and production is predicted to be 601.9 million MT, slightly up from last year. Grain import continued exceeding 15 million MT. Grain supply increased obviously, growth rate of total consumption slowed down and grain consumption for feed increased with livestock industry recovering, based on which, year-end stocks and safety index of stocks shall increase to 266 million MT and 44.43% respectively.

From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”