Analysis of staple food grain planting in China in 2018 and 2019 and suggestions for 2020

The trade war waged by Donald John Trump has had some impacts on global food markets since the beginning of 2018, obviously impacting the front-end planting. Although a trade deal has been achieved by China and the US in January, 2020, the outbreak of novel coronavirus again suppressed global demand, and has had a heavy adverse impact on agricultural production, thus significantly affecting food production, farmers’ income, social employment, economic growth, national finance income, and social income.
1  Analysis of agriculture-related product prices
1.1  Analysis of price trends of agricultural materials
Affected by macro economy and the epidemic in the Chinese mainland and international markets, the prices of agricultural materials showed a decline trend, which is conductive to reducing food production costs, and labor costs continued to increase.
Fertilizer prices: The average price of three major fertilizers in February, 2020 fell by 0.11% month-on-month and 3.63% year-on-year, and it has been decreasing since May, 2019. By varieties, the prices of nitrogen fertilizer, potash fertilizer, and compound fertilizer in February respectively increased by 0.09%, 0.09%, and -0.51% from the previous month, and dropped by 4.83%, 2.41%, and 3.65% year-on-year.
Pesticide prices: The price of pesticides in February increased by 2.53% month-on-month and declined by 16.33% year-on-year. Since November, 2018, pesticide prices have been decreasing year-on-year, with decrease rate at 11%-20% after September, 2019.
Diesel oil prices: In February, diesel oil prices fell by 7.19% from the previous month after continuous slight increase since September, 2019, and dropped by 3.3% year-on-year. The decrease in diesel oil prices is conductive to reducing the cost of agricultural machinery services.
Seed prices also declined to some extent.
Labor costs: Per capita disposable income of rural residents stood at 16021 yuan in 2019, increasing by 9.61% year-on-year. In December, per capita income of migrant workers reached 3962yuan/month, increasing 6.48% over the same period of the previous year, while per capita income of non-migrant workers was only 2116yuan/year, down 1.79% year-on-year.
As a whole, decreased agricultural material costs and increased labor costs made food prices down, leading to the reduction of rural residents’ disposable income.