Soybean imports expected to reach a record 96 million tons in 2020

Although COVID-19 has affected the orderly development of the market economy and the gradual recovery of the domestic pig farming industry, the drop in the price of soybeans and the rise in the price of domestic terminal livestock and poultry products, especially pork, still drove up the crushing profits of soybeans, which stimulated the strong demand for soybean imports. In the first seven months of 2020, China's soybean imports totaled 55.14 million tons, up 18% year-on-year.
 
Since the fourth quarter is traditionally a strong season for U.S. soybean supplies, we would need to import 30 to 40 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year if China implements its procurement program under the U.S.-China trade agreement. Based on current estimates of soybean prices and costs, U.S. soybean imports could reach about 35 million tons, compared with 9.28 million tons in the first seven months, so U.S. soybean imports will increase significantly in the next few months.
 
Based on current orders and shipment estimates, soybean arrivals are still likely to reach around 10 million tons in August and more than 8 million tons in September. The fourth quarter is a traditionally strong season for US soybean supply, so preliminary estimates suggest soybean imports in 2020 could exceed 2017's record of 95.5 million tons to reach around 96 million tons.