'Good to Excellent' HRSW Declines Due to Dry Conditions

By CnAgri2012-07-06 13:29:34 Print

The overall condition rating for the US hard red spring wheat crop, across the north central region of the US, declined slightly the last week of June, as a period of hot and mostly dry conditions stressed crops. Rating declines were most noticeable on the portion of the crop rated good to excellent, falling from 77 percent to 71 percent. More of the crop slipped into the fair condition rating, 24 percent up from 19 percent the previous week. This still leaves the crop with a very strong showing overall as only 5 percent is rated poor to very poor, but the crop is now more on par with the 2011 crop as of the first of July. For much of the season we have been tracking ahead of last year.

By state, crop ratings remain the highest in North Dakota at 80 percent good to excellent, followed by Minnesota at 66 percent, Montana at 63 and South Dakota at 60 percent. Crop ratings declined over the past week in all states, except for Montana. Soil moisture supplies were depleted in most areas with the heat and dryness, and cool temperatures would certainly be welcomed to stabilize crop conditions, along with some moisture replenishing rains to optimize the number and size of kernels produced.

Crop maturity was pushed with the hot conditions, with 73 percent of the crop now headed, up from 57 percent last week, and well ahead of only 12 percent a year ago at this time. Both South Dakota and Minnesota are at or near 100 percent headed, followed by 82 percent in North Dakota and 35 percent in Montana. The advanced maturity of the 2012 crop in most areas, relative to last year and normal should be a positive to help minimize potential yield losses from the heat, but many producers are concerned with forecasts of continued above normal temperatures during early July.

The northern U.S. durum crop also declined in condition ratings across North Dakota this past week, but improved across Montana. North Dakota's crop is now rated 83 percent good to excellent, compared to 92 percent the previous week. In Montana, the crop improved to 87 percent good to excellent, up from 74 percent. Maturity of the crop advanced to 69 percent headed in North Dakota and 35 percent in Montana, both well ahead of normal. The majority of the northern US durum region avoided the extreme heat that hit parts of the spring wheat growing area, but it would also benefit from a period of cooler temperatures and some replenishing rains as more of it enters the reproductive and kernel development stage.