Rice Production and Paddy Consumption in China 2011/2012

By CnAgri2012-07-23 13:32:18 Print

Rice production by medium and large mills registered 10.038 million MT in June, 25.3% more than the month before and 15.27% more than the same period of last year. Rice production totaled 47.688 million MT in January ~ June, an increase of 20.04% on the year-on-year basis. The promulgated figures showed a rice production increase of 14.1% in June and 20.9% in January ~ June, both on the year-on-year basis.

At a rice/paddy ratio of 68%, medium and large mills consumed 14.762 million MT paddy in June and 70.129 million MT in January ~ June.

Rice production and paddy consumption by mills of various scales were estimated to be 11.112 million MT and 16.341 million MT respectively in June.

Calculating at small mills’ capacity of 289 million MT and medium and large mills’ capacity of 302 million MT in 2011, BOABC estimated that small mills ran at 9.8% of their capacity and medium and large mills at 52.6% in June this year.

Paddy consumption for various uses and paddy inventory were estimated to be 14.694 million MT and 88.962 million MT respectively in June, suggesting a consumption index of 4.9, higher than the 4.3 recorded in the same period of last year.

Paddy inventory in June included 43.55 million MT state reserve, 8.1 million MT traders’ stock, 17.16 million MT rice mills’ stock and 20.16 million MT on-farm stock. Farmers sold about 91.41% of their paddy by June, more than the 83.92% sold in the same period of last year.

In the 2011/2012 crop year, paddy production and domestic consumption are estimated to be 200.2 million MT and 201 million MT respectively. Of the total paddy consumption, 177.6 million MT are consumed for rice production. Rice imports equaled to 2.25 million MT paddy imports in the crop year. Year-end paddy inventory is estimated to be 86.309 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 43.85%, a growth of 2% on the year-on-year basis.

Rice price averaged RMB2,724/MT in June and RMB2,627/MT during July of 2011 and June of 2012, up 10% and 12.85% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

Considering the government’s favorable policy, planted paddy acreage and paddy production are predicted to be 30.404 million hectares and 202.7 million MT in 2012/2013, up 0.63% and 1.26% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Domestic paddy consumption is predicted to grow 2.53% over the previous year. Year-end paddy inventory is predicted to be 89.08 million MT, representing a safety index of 44.14%.

From "China Grains Market Weekly Report"