Weak El Nino Will Last Through February

By CnAgri2012-09-10 19:26:33 Print

The U.S. government forecaster has issued its most definitive report since first raising the El Ni駉 alert three months ago, forecasting a weak phenomenon that will last until the Northern Hemisphere spring. The latest assessment from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) could reduce the risk of a major drought in Asia, which produces some of the world's major food staples - such as sugar cane and grains. But it is unlikely to offset mounting fears about global food supplies.

According to Reuters, the much-feared El Ni駉 will develop weakly this month after mostly neutral conditions in August and persist through February of next year, the CPC predicted in its monthly report. It had forecast weak-to-moderate conditions in August.

"At this point the most likely outcome is a weaker event," Michelle L'Heureux, meteorologist and head of the CPC team that assesses the El Ni駉 and La Ni馻 phenomena, told Reuters.

A strong El Ni駉, essentially a warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, can cause widespread drought in Australia, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and India, but also bring rains to other parts of the globe.

But based on the CPC's outlook, this year could be on par with previous less-disruptive episodes in 2004-05 and 2006-07 and far off a repeat of 2009 when drought damaged crops across Asia.

El Ni駉 is still likely to influence weather patterns, but it will be on a more moderate scale, Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist with the Cropcast weather service, told Reuters.