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50% YoY Shrinkage of Sales Quantity of Dairy during First Two Months of 2020

By CnAgri 2020-03-30 20:34:34 Print Tel:861064402118-822 Email: chen.wang@boabc.com

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Owing to the impact from COVID-19, the sales quantity of both UHT milk and pasteurized
milk plunged during the first two months of 2020. Processing companies all witnessed slip of
sales quantity, and it is estimated that the YoY decline of the gross sales quantity should be
50%. Dairy consumption and sales witnessed the following features:
(1) Based on a survey on 20 leading dairy companies, their sales quantity during the Spring
Festival fell 10-80% YoY. The YoY decline of sales quantity in the nation during the first half
year should be around 20%.
(2) There was a considerable decline of visits from friends or relatives during the previous
two months, and the purchase of dairy products as gifts slumped. Usually 25% of dairy
purchase by residents is as gifts during the Spring Festival, whereas this percentage
plummeted during this holiday in 2020, to below 7%.
(3) Orders for doorstep delivery slumped: delivery workers could not return to work, which
affected the service, and communities refused the entry of milk delivery men and subscribers
requested postponement, and companies could not set up stalls to accept orders, all these
have caused a huge impact on the quantity of orders. Nutrition meal suppliers, canteens,
schools and kindergartens have all canceled orders.
China Dairy Monthly Report
Independent • Objective • Forward Look 10
(4) Big shopping malls saw sharp downward turn, whereas convenience stores, small shops
and grocery stores were in a better position in sales of dairy products.
(5) Sales of mainstream e-commerce platforms also slipped due to the restraint of post
delivery. In general, the epidemic reinforced online shopping habit of consumers, both the
sales quantity and proportion of e-commerce dealers should rise quickly.
(6) Strong rigid demand for baby formulas, not as bad as the slump of sales of liquid dairy.
(7) The sales of UHT liquid dairy was better than that of pasteurized products (mainly
pasteurized milk and low-temperature yogurt). Products which require refrigeration have a
short life and heavy reliance on shopping malls and doorstep delivery, and it is hard to
stockpile, hence more affected than the UHT products.
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