Flour Production & Wheat Consumption in June in China

By CnAgri2012-07-23 13:33:47 Print

Flour production by medium and large mills recorded 11.034 million MT in June, 13.2% more than the month before and 9.41% more than the same period of last year. Flour production totaled 58.698 million MT in January ~ June, an increase of 14.52% on the year-on-year basis. The promulgated figures showed a production increase of 15.9% in June and 15.9% in January ~ June, both on the year-on-year basis.

It is estimated that medium and large mills consumed 14.911 million MT wheat in June and 79.322 million MT in January ~ June.

Deducting repetitive statistics, BOABC estimates that 8.572 million MT wheat might be consumed in June for the production of 6.344 million MT flour and 45.603 million MT wheat in January ~ June for the production of 33.746 million MT flour.

Calculating at flourmills’ capacity in 2011, small mills ran at 15.1% of their capacity in June and medium and large mills at 47.5%.

Wheat consumption for various uses and wheat inventory were estimated to be 9.413 million MT and 142 million MT respectively in June, suggesting a stock index of 15.1, higher than the 14.2 recorded in the same period of last year.

Wheat procurement in major production provinces totaled 20.397 million MT by June, 7.306 million MT more than the same period of last year. Of the total, 13.754 million MT were procured by state-run companies.

Wheat stock in June consisted of 43.67 million MT state reserve, 10.29 million MT flourmills’ stock and 85.56 million MT on-farm stock. Farmers sold 31.52% of their wheat by June, more than the same period of last year.

In the 2012/2013 crop year, winter wheat acreage and production are 22.694 million hectares and 109.8 million MT and spring wheat acreage and production are 1.708 million hectares and 6.607 million MT. Due to low wheat/corn price ratio, wheat consumption for feed use increased. Year-end wheat inventory and safety index are estimated to drop slightly to 45.182 million MT and 2.76% respectively.

Wheat price was RMB2,132/MT in June, up 2.76% on the year-on-year basis. Considering the drop of wheat safety index, wheat price is predicted to rise 8% in the new crop year to a level of RMB2,260/MT.

From "China Grains Market Weekly Report"