Wheat Balance Sheet Update in Oct. 2013

By CnAgri2013-12-03 10:44:39 Print

Flour production by medium and large mills was 11.612 million MT in Oct. and 107.75 million MT in Jan. ~ Oct., up 3.3% and 6.47% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Wheat consumption by medium and large mills was 15.693 million MT in Oct. and 145.6 million MT in Jan. ~ Oct.

Deducting repetitive statistics, BOABC estimates that flour production and wheat consumption were about 6.774 million MT and 9.155 million MT respectively in Oct. Small mills ran at 24.3% of their capacity and medium and large mills 48.2%.

Wheat consumption for various uses was about 14.083 million MT in Oct. Wheat imports are predicted to be 4.75 million MT in 2013/2014. Wheat inventory was 97.53 million MT at the end of Oct., suggesting a stock index of 6.9, both below the same period of last year.

The inventory consisted of 59.03 million MT state reserve, 10.99 million MT flourmills’ stock, 6.25 million MT traders’ stock and 24.62 million MT on-farm stock.

Wheat price was RMB2,528/MT in Oct. and RMB2,448/MT in May ~ Oct., up 13.12% and 13.4% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

Wheat production is estimated to be 117 million MT in 2013/2014, down 3.17% on the year-on-year basis. Wheat consumption is predicted to be 122 million MT in the year, including 8 million MT for feed use. Year-end wheat inventory is predicted to be 41.509 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 34.2%. Wheat price may average RMB2,467/MT in the year, up 9% on the year-on-year basis.

Special-purpose wheat production and inventory are estimated to be 68.689 million MT and 22.688 million MT respectively in the crop year, suggesting a safety index of 36.29%, accredited to plenty of imports. Wheat consumption for flour production is predicted to be 62.386 million MT in the crop year.

Winter wheat acreage is estimated to be 22.538 million hectares and spring wheat acreage in next spring is predicted to be 1.729 million hectares, up 0.45% and 6.38% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Wheat production is predicted to be 123 million MT next year, up 5.12% on the year-on-year basis.