Hog and Feed Market Price Change

The average price of hog was 33.87 yuan/kg nationwide, decreasing by 5.73% month on month and increasing by 127.01% year on year. Piglet prices were 97.71 yuan/kg, increasing by 9.33% month on month and increasing by 173.68% year on year. Wholesale prices were 45.02 yuan/kg, decreasing by 10.17% month on month and increasing by 122.65% year on year respectively.
The prices of compound feed for fattening pigs were 3.14 yuan/kg, increasing by 0.29% month on month respectively, increasing by 5.20% year on year respectively.
To effectively curb the cross-regional spread of ASF, crack down illegal actions, ensure standardized and orderly allocation and transportation of pigs, and accelerate pig production resumption, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that a 60-day specific rectification of illegal allocation and transportation of pigs would be carried out from April 1 to June 1.
 
In April, main pig producing regions faced greater difficulties of transporting pigs to other provinces, leading to decreased pig prices and increased slaughter weight. Affected by the decrease in pig prices in North China, the price in the South also slipped, but the price gap between the North and the South further enlarged. Softened consumption and declining pork prices were also the main factors for the decrease of pig prices.  
 
Prediction on pig prices in May:
We expect that pig prices will continue to decline in May, facing greater growth difficulties. The main reasons for the decrease are as follows:
(1) There are many big hogs on the market, especially in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu. Currently, they are weighting 150-170 kilograms, and will successively appear on the market in May. (2) A large quantity of frozen pork was imported. Pork consumption in colleges and universities and companies is dominated by frozen pork. With the opening of colleges and universities in May, imported frozen pork will usher in a peak season. Some large scale slaughterhouses have started to largely import frozen pork products, and will sell these products at low prices. It will push the price of domestic fresh pork down.
 
It’s predicted that the price gap between the South and the North will continue to expand in May, 2020, and the national pig price will slightly decline, averaging 30-32yuan/kg.
 
Prediction on piglet prices in May
Although pig prices have declined, it’s still at a relatively high level in history. For considerable breeding profits, farmers have higher enthusiasm on restocking. It’s expected that piglet prices will continue to rise in May.
It’s estimated that domestic piglet prices in May will increase by about 100yuan/kg from the previous month.