2020 Soybean imports to rebound to about 90 million tons

In 2020, the whole world has been affected by COVID-19 outbreak on social, economic and political aspects. From the perspective of international trade of agricultural products, some countries restrict or stop the export of their own agricultural products, and some countries close ports and borders. The trade volume of agricultural products in China is large, involving many varieties and countries, so it is also greatly affected. At the end of April, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Chinese products, which made the long-term trade talks between the two sides into a deadlock again. In addition, the drastic fall in crude oil price and the depressed global stock and commodity markets bring more uncertain factors to agricultural market, and the future situation seems complicated. 
 
In the first quarter of 2020, China's soybean imports reached 17.79 million tons, an increase of 1.04 million tons or 6% year on year. Among them, the quantity of imported soybeans from the United States showed recovered growth. Affected by the trade war, China imported only 2.56 million tons of soybeans from the United States in the first quarter of 2019, which doubled to 7.81 million tons in the first quarter of this year. To sum up, 44% of China's soybean imports in the first quarter came from the United States, 41% from Brazil, and 12% from Argentina. The proportion of US soybean increased significantly.
 
After the resumption of work in March, the soybean stocks in the oil plant decreased rapidly, and many enterprises began to actively purchase soybeans. It is estimated that the purchase volume in the second quarter will exceed 25 million tons, basically returning to the level of the same period in 2017 and 2018. At the same time, the governments of Brazil and Argentina have taken active measures to ensure the normal operation of ports and transportation. 
Despite the uncertainties in China-US trade relations, we take a relatively optimistic view due to the high soybean stocks and export demand of the United States. As a result, total soybean imports of China is expected to reach about 90 million tons in 2020, an increase of about 2 million tons over the previous two years.