Analysis on Fertilizer Demand and Supply in China in 2012

By CnAgri2012-07-06 16:13:11 Print

The first half of this year witnessed a growing surplus in the fertilizer market. While fertilizer production was under expansion, consumption and exports were dull. Fertilizer supply and demand were 48.75 million MT and 38.5 million MT respectively in the first half of this year, up 5% but down 1 ~ 2% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

Fertilizer production and imports were estimated to be 33.9 million MT (nutrient, same below) and 2.5 million MT (mostly potassium) respectively in January ~ June, up 3.5% and 20% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Fertilizer consumption and exports were about 37.2 million MT and 1.15 million MT respectively in January ~ June, the former parallel to the same period of last year but the latter down 30% on the year-on-year basis.

BOABC predicts that fertilizer market may be basically balanced in the second half of this year with a moderate surplus. Fertilizer production, especially low-concentration nitrogen and ammonium phosphate, may be hampered by soft market demand. Fertilizer exports are expected to step up during the low-tariff period. Fertilizer consumption for industrial uses is expected to increase.

Fertilizer inventory is predicted to be 14 million MT at the end of this year, suggesting a stock/consumption ratio of 22.7%.

From "China Fertilizer Market Weekly Report"