Rice Production and Paddy Consumption in July in China

By CnAgri2012-08-17 13:58:33 Print

Rice production by medium and large mills registered 8.892 million MT in July, 11.4% less than the month before but 20.42% more than the same period of last year. Rice production totaled 56.58 million MT in January ~ July, an increase of 20.1% on the year-on-year basis. The promulgated figures showed a rice production increase of 21.9% in July and 21.3% in January ~ July, both on the year-on-year basis.

At a rice/paddy ratio of 68%, medium and large mills consumed 13.076 million MT paddy in July and 83.206 million MT in January ~ July. BOABC estimates that rice production and paddy consumption by mills of various scales were about 9.7 million MT and 14.265 million MT respectively in July.

Calculating at small rice mills’ capacity of 289 million MT/year and medium and large mills’ capacity of 302 million MT/year, small mills ran at 8.7% of their capacity and medium and large mills 46.6% in July.

Paddy consumption for various uses was estimated to be 16.171 million MT in July. Paddy inventory was about 102.5 million MT at the end of July, suggesting a consumption index of 6.3, higher than the 5.8 recorded in the same period of last year.

Early paddy procurement in major production regions was 2.197 million MT in July, of which 1.58 million MT were procured by state-run companies. Paddy inventory in July included 41.93 million MT state-run companies’ stock, 4.6 million MT traders’ stock, 14.98 million MT rice mills’ stock and 40.98 million MT on-farm stock.

In the 2011/2012 crop year (July ~ June), paddy production and consumption were about 200.2 million MT and 203.5 million MT respectively. 177.6 million MT paddy was consumed for rice production. Year-end paddy inventory was 86.14 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 43.76%, up 2% on the year-on-year basis. Rice price averaged RMB2,628/MT in the year, up 12.85% on the year-on-year basis.

In the 2012/2013 crop year, planted paddy acreage, paddy production and paddy consumption are predicted to be 30.427 million hectares, 203.5 million MT and 202.5 million MT respectively, up 0.7%, 1.26% and 2.53% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Year-end paddy inventory is predicted to be 89.49 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 44.34%.

Rice price was RMB2,723/MT in July, up 8.85% on the year-on-year basis. Subject to inflation, rice price is predicted to rise 5 ~ 8% this year over last year to a level of RMB2,812/MT.

From "China Grains Market Weekly Report"