Grain Supply and Consumption in 2011/2012 in China

By CnAgri2012-08-27 13:04:56 Print

Grain production is predicted to be 575.3 million MT in 2012. Grain imports registered 9.177 million MT in January ~ July this year and is predicted to reach 12 million MT by the end of this year.

Domestic grain consumption is estimated to be 566 million MT in 2011/2012, including 293 million MT for food use, 165.4 million MT for feed use and 73.32 million MT for industrial uses (31.14 million MT for deep-processed products and 42.18 million MT for alcohol production). Year-end grain inventory is estimated to be 229 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 39.32%.

The feed industry consumed about 16.284 million MT grains in July, 3.19% more than the same period of last year. Feed production and grain consumption for feed use registered 130.3 million MT and 96.732 million MT respectively in January ~ July, up 4.22% and 5.12% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

5.78 million MT grains were consumed for industrial uses in July, 5.77% less than the month before but 1.98% more than the same period of last year. Grain consumption for industrial uses totaled 73.387 million MT in January ~ July, a drop of 0.41% on the year-on-year basis.

Grain consumption for alcohol production was 3.295 million MT in July and 24.48 million MT in January ~ July, up 5.93% and 3.63% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

Starch, ethanol and corn prices recorded RMB2,988/MT, RMB6,423/MT and RMB2,446/MT respectively in July, down 1.98%, down 1.49% but up 0.83% respectively against the month before, down 3.81%, down 8.96% but up 6.47% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for currency value change, their prices were down 1.09%, up 0.6% and up 1.71% respectively against the month before, and were above the same period of last year by 9.4%, 4.57% and 19.68% respectively.

Starch and ethanol production generated a profit of RMB128/MT and RMB71.2/MT respectively in July, suggesting a gross profit ratio of 4.29% and 0.98% respectively. Starch mills produced 1.66 million MT starch in July at the cost of 2.47 million MT grains.

Domestic grain consumption for various uses was about 47.886 million MT in July, up 0.28% on the year-on-year basis. Domestic grain consumption and exports added up to 47.907 million MT in July, up 0.27% on the year-on-year basis. Grain inventory was 285 million MT at the end of July, suggesting a stock/consumption ratio of 5.94, slightly above the same period of last year.

Grain inventory in July consisted of 98.674 million MT paddy, 42.34 million MT corn, 136 million MT wheat, 2.709 million MT barley and 5 million MT others.

Paddy, corn and wheat inventory totaled 277 million MT at the end of July, including 127 million MT state reserve, 53.32 million MT commercial stock and 96.38 million MT on-farm stock.

In the 2012/2013 crop year, domestic grain consumption is predicted to be 571 million MT, of which 2.84 million MT are predicted to be food-use consumption. Grain imports and exports are predicted to be 4.82 million MT and 1.86 million MT respectively in the crop year. Year-end grain inventory is predicted to be 230 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 40.26%.

From "China Grains Market Weekly Report"