Rice Production up 9.6%, Paddy Price up 9.61% in September

By CnAgri2012-10-26 10:42:50 Print

Rice production by medium and large mills (each with an annual sales revenue of more than RMB20 million) registered 9.626 million MT in September, 9.6% more than the month before and 23.97% more than the same period of last year. Rice production totaled 74.985 million MT in January ~ September, an increase of 20.43% on the year-on-year basis. The promulgated figures showed a rice production growth of 23.9% in September and 21.5% in January ~ September, both on the year-on-year basis. The production growth was accredited to the expansion of rice productive capacity and increased consumption around festivals.

At a rice/paddy ratio of 68%, paddy consumption by medium and large mills was 14.156 million MT in September and 110.272 million MT in January ~ September.

Rice production and paddy consumption by mills of various scales were estimated to be 11.099 million MT and 16.323 million MT respectively in September.

Calculating at small mills’ capacity of 289 million MT and the medium and large mills’ capacity of 302 million MT in 2011, small mills ran at 12.1% of their capacity and medium and large mills 50.4% in September this year.

Paddy consumption for various uses and paddy inventory were about 18.19 million MT and 123.6 million MT respectively in September, suggesting a monthly consumption index of 6.8, slightly lower than the same period of last year.

Paddy procurement was about 11.53 million MT by the end of September, of which 6.836 million MT were procured by state-run companies. Paddy stock at the end of September consisted of 44.68 million MT state reserve, 6.7 million MT traders’ stock, 18.77 million MT rice mills’ stock and 53.49 million MT on-farm stock. Farmers sold 50.08% of their harvested paddy by September, 10% more than the same period of last year.

In the 2012/2013 crop year, planted paddy acreage and paddy production are estimated to be 30.352 million hectares and 203.8 million MT, up 0.42% and 1.76% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Paddy consumption for rice production and feed use may be 202.9 million MT, 1.41% more than the previous year. Year-end paddy inventory is predicted to be 85.524 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 42.15%.

Paddy price was RMB2,786/MT in September and RMB2,756/MT in July ~ September, up 9.61% and 9.31% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Considering inflation and the drop of paddy safety index, paddy price is predicted to rise 5 ~ 8% in this crop year to a level of RMB2,812/MT, compared with the previous year.

From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”