Flour Production & Wheat Consumption in Sept.

By CnAgri2013-11-04 11:18:19 Print Flour production by medium and large mills recorded 11.441 million MT in Sept. and 96.138 million MT in Jan. ~ Sept., up 4.99% and 6.87% respectively on the year-on-year basis. These mills consumed about 15.461 million MT wheat in Sept. and 129.9 million MT in Jan. ~ Sept.
 
Deducting repetitive statistics, BOABC estimates that flour production and wheat consumption were about 6.674 million MT and 90.19 million MT respectively in Sept. small mills ran at 24.9% of their capacity and medium and large mills 47.4% in Sept.
 
Wheat consumption for various uses was 10.799 million MT in Sept. Wheat imports in Sept. hit a monthly record of 718,000 MT since 2004. Wheat inventory was 111 million MT at the end of Sept., suggesting a stock index of 10.3, both below the same period of last year. The inventory in Sept. consisted of 59.03 million MT state reserve, 12.53 million MT flourmills’ stock and 31.26 million MT on-farm stock.
 
Wheat procurement in major production regions totaled 54.5 million MT by the end of Sept., a decrease of 3.125 million MT on the year-on-year basis. Of the total, 40.33 million MT were procured by state-run companies.
 
Wheat price was RMB2,476/MT in Sept. and RMB2,432/MT in May ~ Sept., up 13.13% and 13.46% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Wheat production is estimated to be 117 million MT this year, a drop of 2.59% on the year-on-year basis. Wheat imports are estimated to go up to 4.3 million MT in the year because of decreased production of flour-use wheat.
 
As wheat price is at a high level, feed mills’ wheat consumption may drop to 10 million MT. Wheat consumption for industrial uses is surmised to shrink, too. Wheat consumption and year-end inventory are predicted to be 124 million MT and 37.64 million MT respectively in this crop year, suggesting a safety index of 30.3%, a lower index level than last year. Wheat price may average RMB2,444/MT in the year, up 8% on the year-on-year basis.
 
High-quality wheat production is about 69.042 million MT this year and flourmills’ high-quality wheat consumption is about 62.513 million MT. High-quality wheat inventory is predicted to be 22.411 million MT at the end of the crop year, suggesting a safety index of 35.85%, accredited to large quantities of imports.
 
In view of the rising wheat price, winter wheat acreage and spring wheat acreage are predicted to be 22.757 million hectares and 1.683 million hectares respectively in the next crop year, 0.82% and 7.52% more than the previous year. Wheat production is predicted to be 123 million MT next year, a growth of 5.12% on the year-on-year basis. Year-end wheat inventory and safety index are predicted to be 38.5 million MT and 31% next crop year. High-quality wheat production and consumption are predicted to be 84.935 million MT and 70.5 million MT respectively next year.




From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”