World Cotton Production To Decline in 2013/14
By CnAgri2013-06-27 11:42:27 Print World 2013/14 cotton production is forecast to decline 3 percent from a year ago to117.2 million bales, as relatively higher expected crops in several major cotton countries are more than offset by declines in China and the United States. Brazil and Australia are forecast to produce 4.5 million bales and 7.0 million bales,respectively, up 5 percent and 21 percent from the preceding year. India and Pakistan are forecast to produce 27.0 and 9.5 million bales, respectively, in 2013/14, an increase of 2 percent each from a year ago. China’s 2013/14 production is forecast to decline 3 percent from a year earlier to 34.0 million bales. The United States is expected to produce 13.5 million bales in 2013/14, down 22 percent from the previous year.
Global 2013/14 area harvested is forecast at 33.9 million hectares, down 1 percent from a year ago and the second consecutive annual decline in world harvested area. Weaker world market prices for the fiber since 2010 explain much of this decline. World cotton yield is forecast at 753 kg/hectare in 2013/14.
Global Cotton Consumption and Ending Stocks To Rise in 2013/14 World 2013/14 cotton mill use is forecast at 110.2 million bales, up 2 percent from a year earlier. India and Pakistan are forecast to consume 23.3 million bales and 12.0 million bales, respectively, in 2013/14, an increase of 2 percent and 4 percent from the previous year. Bangladesh and Vietnam are forecast to consume 3.8 million bales and 2.5 million bales, respectively, in 2013/14, an increase of 2 percent and 11 percent from the preceding year. Projected increases in South and Southeast Asia mill use will be supported by yarn demand from China, where price supports through an official reserve-building policy has constrained the profitability of domestic spinning.
Global ending stocks are forecast at a record 92.5 million bales in 2013/14, up 9 percent from a year earlier. The forecast surge in ending stocks comes as world production outpaces world consumption for the third consecutive year and as global cotton trade is forecast to decline in 2013/14. China is expected to account for 64 percent (58.9 million bales) of projected global stocks due to the ongoing policy of government cotton purchases for state reserves.
Australia’s 2013/14 ending stocks are forecast at 2.7 million bales, up 19 percent from the previous year and representing 3 percent of global ending stocks. Brazil’s 2013/14 ending stocks are forecast at 5.9 million bales, an 8-percent increase from the previous year. India’s and Uzbekistan’s 2013/14 ending stocks are forecast to decline 6 percent and 15 percent, respectively, from a year ago, to 7.2 million bales and 1.2 million bales. Ending stocks in the United States are forecast at 2.6 million bales in 2013/14, down 28 percent from a year ago and at one of the lowest levels in recent years.
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