China Feed Production and Corn Balance Sheet in Nov. 2013

By CnAgri2014-01-02 09:34:49 Print

According to Statistics Bureau, feed production increased on year-on-year basis but declined MOM.
　　
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, compound feed production by medium and large mills registered 12.947 million MT in Nov. and 124.508 million MT in Jan. ~ Nov., up 9.60% and 9.64% respectively on the year-on-year basis; concentrated feed production by medium and large mills registered 5.4272 million MT in Nov. and 53.709 million MT in Jan. ~ Nov., up 5.03% and 8.49% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
　　
Besides, feed production of key enterprises of Feed Industry Association registered 3.11 million MT in Nov., including compound feed, 2.76 million MT, concentrated feed, 253,000MT and additive pre-mix feed, 93,000MT. Thereby, production of additive pre-mix feed totaled 6.17 million MT in the first 11 months in 2013.

Feed production totaled 18.966 million MT in Nov. and 188 million MT in Jan.-Nov., down 4.59% and 4.57% respectively YOY.
　　
Converted to complete feed, the production was 28.453 million MT and 17.072 million MT energy feed was consumed in Nov.. Due to continuous increase of wheat/corn price ratio, corn consumption for feed increased. Corn consumption for feed totaled 11.95 million MT in whole society and 8.04 million MT in medium and large sized compound feed enterprises.
　　
Taking 25 days’ operation as full capacity, compound feed mills’ operating rate was 54.07% in Nov..
　　
Demand for other energy feed was 5.122 million MT and for protein and other staple raw materials was 10.67 million MT.
　　
For supply of other raw materials, deducting 770,000MT imports, domestic refined veg oil production was 5.9444 million MT in Nov.; domestic crushing quantity of veg oil was 5.17 million MT, up 21% on year-on-year basis and up 5% MOM. Taking repetitive statistics into consideration, oilseed meal production is predicted to be 11.62 million MT and its production/demand ratio is 1.09.
　　
Supply of non-corn raw materials totaled 19.96 million MT, including 17.334 million MT grain and oil processing by-products, for different varieties, including 2.411 million MT wheat middling and bran, 1.81 million MT rice husk and broken rice, 1.451 million MT corn bran and protein powder and 41,000 MT beer dregs. Direct consumption of  wheat, paddy, flour and rice registered 2.356 million MT.

Corn consumption for various uses was 17.546 million MT in Nov. Corn production accumulated to 197 million MT in 2013. Corn inventory was 204 million MT at the end of Nov., suggesting a monthly stock/consumption index of 11.62.

Corn inventory in Nov. consisted of 24.03 million MT state reserve, 9.388 million MT corn-processing factories’ stock, 8.844 million MT feed mills’ stock, 4.502 million MT traders’ stock and 1.57 million MT farmers’ stock. Corn purchased in major production areas registered 15.24 million MT, of which, 2.667 million MT was purchased by state-owned enterprises and 12.573 million MT by private enterprises.

Corn price was RMB2,373/MT in Nov., down 0.67% on the year-on-year basis and 1.13% MOM. Current corn price is higher than protective procurement price, so it is likely to go down.

Planted corn acreage and corn production are 36.42 million hectares and 213.6 million MT in 2013, up 3.97% and 3.89% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Corn unit yield declined slightly to 5868Kg/hectare, influenced by drought in SC and waterlogging in NC. Due to wide price gap between home and abroad, corn imports are predicted to be 3 million MT this crop year. Corn industry consumption was 51.788 million MT and total consumption, 188.7 million MT in 2012/13 with safety index of 39.29%; corn industry consumption is predicted to be54.65 million MT and total consumption 196.7 million MT in 2013/14. The year-end inventory is 93.957 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 47.76%. Corn annual price declines, forecasting at RMB2344/MT.



From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”