CEMAC: Entrepreneur Confidence Index Decreased in Second Quarter

By CnAgri2012-07-16 17:15:53 Print

China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center (CEMAC): The entrepreneur confidence index (ECI) reached 121.2 in the second quarter of 2012, decreased 1.8 points over the previous quarter. Of which, the current ECI was 120.1, dropped 1.1 points quarter-on-quarter, expected ECI was 121.9, decreased 2.4 points quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of different industries, the rank of ECIs followed by the information transmission and computer services and software industry, social services, hotel and catering services, construction, industry, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, storage and postal industry, and real estate was 147.9, 131.5, 125.8, 124.0, 121.5, 120.7, 114.2, and 100.0 respectively. As compared with the results of the first quarter, the ECIs of real estate and industry went up by 13.5 and 1.0 points, respectively, that of wholesale and retail trade, information transmission and computer services and software industry, social services, industry, hotel and catering services, transportation, storage and postal industry, and construction fell 12.3, 7.7, 6.9, 4.2, 3.8, and 1.6 points respectively.

In terms of different types of registration, the ECIs of state-owned enterprises, collective-owned enterprises, joint-stock cooperative enterprises, joint ventures, limited liability companies, cooperation limited, private enterprises, enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and foreign funded enterprises was 125.2, 113.6, 119.6, 114.2, 118.3, 125.5, 116.4, 120.3 and 122.5 in the second quarter. As compared with the first quarter, the ECIs of joint ventures, private enterprises, enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, limited liability companies, state-owned enterprises, cooperation limited, and joint-stock cooperative enterprises declined 2.9, 2.5, 1.9, 1.7, 1.6, 1.3 and 0.1 points respectively.

In terms of different enterprise sizes, the ECIs of small, medium and large-sized enterprises was 116.3, 120.9 and 128.3 respectively, decreased 0.1, 2.3 and 0.7 points over the first quarter.

In terms of different regions, the ECI of central region was higher than the eastern and western regions. The ECIs of eastern, central and western regions stood at 118.7, 127.0, and 120.3 respectively.

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

The entrepreneur confidence index is comprehensively reflects the industry situation and the expected direction, through out by the good or bad judgments on the macro economic situation from the entrepreneurs from the business climate survey. The range of ECI is between 0-200, 100 as the critical value, when the index is greater than 100, reflecting the entrepreneur confidence state is good and optimistic, the more close to 200 the higher the level of optimism; less than 100, reflect the state of the entrepreneur confidence is poor and pessimistic, closer to 0 reflect deeper pessimistic.

2. Statistical Coverage

The survey covers eight sectors: industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, storage and postal services, hotel and catering industry, information transmission software and IT services, real estate, and social services. Each industry is according to the scale of the proportion of a sample.

3. Survey Methods

Samples were selected by adopting stratified, sample size is proportional to the probability sampling methods selected for the survey sampling method, the national total sample size stands for 21000 enterprises. The responsible persons report online directly.

4. Survey Content

Survey involved in the business running, enterprises operation, profitability, employment, investment, finance, inventory and other production and management problems.

5. Calculation Methods

The entrepreneur confidence index = 0.4×Current ECI +0.6×Expected ECI

Current ECI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the current quarter - poor proportion of +100

Expected ECI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the next quarter - poor proportion of +100

6. Classification of Eastern, Central and Western Regions

Eastern regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan; central regions including Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan; western regions including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia