CEMAC: Business Climate Index Declined in the Second Quarter

By CnAgri2012-07-16 17:16:03 Print

China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center (CEMAC): National Business Climate Survey results showed that the business climate index (BCI) was 126.9 in the second quarter, dropped 0.4 points quarter-on-quarter, the decreasing amplitude narrowed gradually. Of which, the current BCI was 123.2 in this quarter, went up by 2.9 points quarter-on-quarter, expected BCI was 129.4, decreased 2.6 points quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of different industries, the rank of BCIs followed by the information transmission, computer services and software industry, social services, industry, construction, whole sale and retail trade, hotel and catering service, transportation, storage and postal industry, and real estate was 148.8, 130.8, 129.2, 128.5, 128.5, 121.1, 118.2 and 109.2 respectively. As compared with the results of the first quarter, the BCIs of industry and real estate rose by 6.0 and 1.2 points, respectively, that of whole sale and retail trade, information transmission, computer services and software industry, hotel and catering service, construction, social services, and transportation, storage and postal industry declined 11.0, 6.0, 4.7, 3.6, 3.6 and 1.5 points, respectively.

In terms of sub-branches of the industry, the BCIs of production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water, manufacturing, and mining industry was 138.2, 129.7 and 115.3 points, respectively. Of which, the industries with high prosperity from high to low in descending order were pharmaceutical, beverage, food, agro-food processing, tobacco, instrumentation, printing, wood processing, furniture, electrical machinery, and special equipment manufacturing, the BCIs were above 135. The degree of prosperity on petroleum processing, steel, and chemical fiber industry was low, of which, petroleum processing and steel in a recession interval (the sentiment index is less than 100), that of chemical fiber close to recession interval.

In terms of different types of registration, the BCIs of state-owned enterprises, collective-owned enterprises, joint-stock cooperative enterprises, joint ventures, limited liability companies, cooperation limited, private enterprises, enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and foreign funded enterprises was 129.7, 115.1, 121.3, 113.3, 123.4, 135.6, 121.6, 125.2 and 131.5 points in the second quarter, respectively. As compared with the results of the first quarter, the BCIs of state-owned enterprises, and joint ventures remained at the same level, that of collective-owned enterprises, cooperation limited, enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and foreign funded enterprises ballooned 3.4, 1.1, 1.3 and 2.2 points, respectively, that of joint-stock cooperative enterprises, limited liability companies, and private enterprises fell 0.1, 1.1 and 0.6 points, respectively.

In terms of different regions, the BCI of central region was higher than the eastern and western regions. In the second quarter, the BCIs of eastern, central and western regions stood at 126.3, 130.1 and 123.9, respectively.

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

The business climate index is comprehensively reflects the economic situation and the expected direction, through out by the good or bad judgments on the business situation from the entrepreneurs from the business climate survey. The range of BCI is between 0-200, 100 as the critical value, when the index is greater than 100, reflecting the business climate state is good and optimistic, the more close to 200 the higher the level of optimism; less than 100, reflect the state of the business climate is poor and pessimistic, closer to 0 reflect deeper pessimistic.

2. Statistical Coverage

The survey covers eight sectors: industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, storage and postal services, hotel and catering industry, information transmission software and IT services, real estate, and social services. Each industry is according to the scale of the proportion of a sample.

3. Survey Methods

Samples were selected by adopting the sampling methods of stratified, probability proportional to size (PPS). The national total sample size were 21,000 enterprises. The responsible persons report online directly.

4. Survey Contents

Survey involved in the business running, enterprises operation, profitability, employment, investment, financing, inventory and other production and management problems.

5. Calculation Methods

The business climate index = 0.4×Current BCI +0.6×Expected BCI

Current BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the current quarter - poor proportion of +100

Expected BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the next quarter - poor proportion of +100

6. Classification of Eastern, Central and Western Regions

Eastern regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan; central regions including Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan; western regions including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.