CEMAC: Business Climate Index Declined in the Third Quarter

By CnAgri2012-10-19 20:17:12 Print

China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center (CEMAC): National Business Climate Survey results showed that the business climate index (BCI) was 122.8 in the third quarter, dropped 4.1 points quarter-on-quarter, and 22.8 points higher than the threshold. Of which, the current BCI that reflected the current state of business climate was 119.7, down by 3.5 points quarter-on-quarter; the expected BCI that reflected the anticipation of future business climate was 124.8, decreased 4.6 points quarter-on-quarter. In the third quarter, the entrepreneur expectation index (ECI) was 116.5, down by 4.7 points quarter-on-quarter.

Influenced by the spread of European debt crisis, weakened international market demand, and obvious domestic overcapacity contradiction, the BCI in the third quarter dropped back. While the BCI was still in a boom interval which was obviously higher than the threshold, and was 13.2 points higher than the BCI in the fourth quarter of 2008, during financial crisis, indicating that the current economy was in a normal state overall. The expected BCI was 5.1 points higher than the current BCI, showing that the expectation for the future of entrepreneurs was relatively positive.

In terms of different industries, the rank of BCIs followed by the information transmission, software and IT services industry, wholesale and retail trade, construction, lodging and catering, industry, social services, transportation, storage and postal industry and real estate was 145.8, 128.9, 123.9, 123.4, 122.7, 122.0, 114.5, 108.0 respectively. As compared with the results of the second quarter, the BCIs of lodging and catering, wholesale and retail trade rose by 2.3 and 0.4 points, respectively, that of social services, industry, construction, transportation, storage and postal industry, information transmission, software and IT services industry, and real estate declined 8.8, 6.5, 4.6, 3.7, 3.0, 1.2 points, respectively.

In terms of sub-branches of the industry, the BCIs of production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water, manufacturing, and mining industry was 135.8, 123.7 and 99.3 points, respectively. Of which, the industries with high prosperity from high to low in descending order were pharmaceutical, tobacco, food, agro-food processing, beverage, crafts, wood processing, instrumentation, and furniture, the BCIs were above 130. The industries with low prosperity from low to high in ascending order were steel, petroleum processing, and chemical fiber industry, the BCIs were in a recession interval (the sentiment index is less than 100).

Survey results showed that the industries with low prosperity and relatively obvious decline were mainly investment-related industries such as steel, while the industries with relatively high prosperity and stable development were mainly informatization and industrial upgrading-related industries such as IT services, as well as consumption-related industries such as wholesale and retail trade, and consumer goods industry in the manufacturing sector.

In terms of different types of registration, the BCIs of state-owned enterprises, collective-owned enterprises, joint-stock cooperative enterprises, joint ventures, limited liability companies, cooperation limited, private enterprises, enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and foreign funded enterprises was 127.1, 113.8, 115.1, 112.8, 118.7, 132.6, 117.6, 122.8 and 120.8 points in the second quarter, respectively. As compared with the results of the second quarter this year, the BCIs of foreign funded enterprises, joint-stock cooperative enterprises, limited liability companies, private enterprises, cooperation limited, state-owned enterprises, enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, collective-owned enterprises, and joint ventures fell 10.7, 6.2, 4.7, 4.0, 3.0, 2.6, 2.4, 1.3 and 0.5 points, respectively.

In terms of the sizes of enterprises, the BCIs of large, medium and small-sized enterprises were 134.4, 123.4 and 114.0, respectively, down by 5.2, 3.3 and 4.1 points quarter-on-quarter, respectively.

In terms of different regions, the BCI of central region was obviously higher than that of the eastern and western regions. In the third quarter, the BCIs of eastern, central and western regions stood at 122.2, 127.0 and 118.6, respectively.

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

The business climate index is comprehensively reflects the economic situation and the expected direction, through out by the good or bad judgments on the business situation from the entrepreneurs from the business climate survey. The range of BCI is between 0-200, 100 as the critical value, when the index is greater than 100, reflecting the business climate state is good and optimistic, the more close to 200 the higher the level of optimism; less than 100, reflect the state of the business climate is poor and pessimistic, closer to 0 reflect deeper pessimistic.

The entrepreneur confidence index is comprehensively reflects the industry situation and the expected direction, through out by the good or bad judgments on the macro economic situation from the entrepreneurs from the business climate survey. The range of ECI is between 0-200, 100 as the critical value, when the index is greater than 100, reflecting the entrepreneur confidence state is good and optimistic, the more close to 200 the higher the level of optimism; less than 100, reflect the state of the entrepreneur confidence is poor and pessimistic, closer to 0 reflect deeper pessimistic.

2. Statistical Coverage

The survey covers eight sectors: industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, storage and postal services, hotel and catering industry, information transmission, software and IT services, real estate, and social services. Each industry is according to the scale of the proportion of a sample.

3. Survey Methods

Samples were selected by adopting the sampling methods of stratified, probability proportional to size (PPS). The national total sample size were 21,000 enterprises.

4. Survey Contents

Survey involved in the business running, enterprises operation, profitability, employment, investment, financing, inventory and other production and management problems.

5. Calculation Methods

The business climate index = 0.4×Current BCI +0.6×Expected BCI

Current BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the current quarter - poor proportion of +100

Expected BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the next quarter - poor proportion of +100

The calculation method of ECI is similar to that of BCI.

6. Classification of Eastern, Central and Western Regions

Eastern regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan; central regions including Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan; western regions including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.