China's grain output in 2019 increases by 3.48% from last year

1 China’s total grain output in 2019:
It’s estimated that, in 2019, the national grain output will total 634 million tons, an increase of 3.48% over the previous year; the planting area will reach 117 million hectares, up 2.22% over the previous year; the unit area yield will be 5,420 kg/ha. In late July and early August, high temperature and more rain in the main grain producing areas and western provinces played an important role in the growth of grain output. This year, the output of grain in the main producing provinces will reach 506 million tons, accounting for 79.73% of the country's total; the planting area in the main producing provinces will account for 77.53% of the national total.
According to the current trend, the national sown area and the output of grain will be 1.198 million hectares and 675.7 million tons respectively by 2025; the national sown area and the output of grain will reach 126.4 million hectares and 734.9 million tons respectively by 2030.
 
2   Grain production by varieties:
The output of major grain varieties increases, but low yields of potatoes and tomatoes will impact the overall growth rate of grain output.
2.1 Cereals: in 2019, the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of cereals are predicted to be 95.134 million hectares, 575 million tons, and 6044kg/hectare respectively, increasing by 1.60%, 3.29%, and 1.66% from the year before separately.      
2.2 Beans: in 2019, the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of beans are estimated to reach 12.277 million hectares, 22.477 million tons, and 1831kg/hectare respectively, rising by 14.79%, 4.98%, and 0.18% from the year before separately.      
2.3 tuber crops: in 2019, the sown area and output of tuber crops are predicted to be 9.661 million hectares and 36.986 million tons, increasing by 5.27% and 5.65% year-on-year. The per unit area yield of tuber crops (converted into grain) is much lower than that of main cereals, which will restrict the development of tuber crops planting.
3 By varieties:
3.1 Wheat: in the crop year of 2019/20, the total sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of wheat will reach 24.481 million hectares, 137.3 million tons, and 5607kg/hectare respectively, rising by 3.83%, 7.15%, and 3.20% from the previous year separately.
By seasons: the sown area, the output, and the per unit area of winter wheat are predicted to be 23.01 million hectares, 131.09 million tons, and 5679kg/hectare respectively, which will increase by 4.07%, 7.48%, and 3.27% year-on-year separately. The sown area, the output, and the per unit area of spring wheat are predicted to be 1.471 million hectares, 6.179 million tons, and 4201kg/hectare, rising by 0.14%, 0.69%, and -0.49% from the previous year.   
The sown area of winter wheat increases greatly in Anhui, Henan, and Shandong, and good weather conditions will also bring about the increase in national sown area and output. According to the current market feedback, the yield of wheat per unit area will hit a record high in quite a few areas.
By varieties: the sown area of high-quality wheat is 19.095 million hectares, accounting for 78% of the total national planting area; the output of high-quality edible wheat reaches 91.18 million tons, accounting for 66.42% of the total output. The production of high-quality strong gluten wheat and weak gluten wheat are respectively 13.676 million tons and 4.036 million tons, increasing by40.89% and 17.32% from the previous year respectively.
According to the development trend of wheat production in various areas, the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of wheat will reach 24.769 million hectares, 145.7 million tons, and 5882kg/hectare by 2025, and be 25.566 million hectares, 153 million tons, and 5974kg/hectare by 2030. The yield per unit area in China is much lower than that of developed countries, and the breakthrough in yield per unit area is the key to solving food security problems.
3.2 Corn: it’s estimated that the sown area and the output of corn in 2019 will reach 37.281 million hectares and 226.29 million tons respectively, increasing by 3.82% and 7.29% from last year separately. The rebound in corn prices since new corn appeared on the market supports the increase in sown area. The sown area and the output of spring corn will be 25.21 million hectares and 162 million tons, rising by 2.31% and 6.76% from last year respectively. The sown area and the output of summer corn will reach 12.07 million hectares and 64.67 million tons, which respectively increase by 7.14% and 8.62% year-on-year. The timely artificial precipitation in Huanghuai will lead to a growth in corn output.
According to the current development trend, the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of corn will reach 39.414 million hectares, 249.97 million tons, and 6342kg/hectare by 2025, and be 42.015 million hectares, 271.39 million tons, and 6459kg/hectare by 2030. Lower yield of corn per unit area will seriously restrict the development of China’s corn industry.
3.3 Paddy: it’s predicted that the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area in 2019 will reach 29.225 million hectares, 198.9 million tons, and 6807kg/hectare respectively, decreasing by 3.23%, 3.26%, and 0.03% from last year separately.
By seasons, the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of early indica rice will reach 4.97 million hectares, 26.899 million tons, and 5412kg/hectare respectively, decreasing by 5.44%, 8.80%, and 3.55% from last year separately. The flood in the Yangtze River basin in early July will lead to a reduction in the production of early indica rice. The sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of single-season rice will be 18.528 million hectares, 137.27 million tons, and 7409kg/hectare respectively, increasing by -2.62%, -2.32%, and 0.31% from last year separately. The sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area of double-cropping late rice will reach 57.27 million hectares, 34.77 million tons, and 6071kg/hectare respectively, increasing by -3.23%, -2.39%, and 0.87% from last year separately.
By varieties, it’s predicted that the sown area and the output of japonica rice will be 10.424 million hectares and 77.925 million tons, decreasing by 3.9% and 1.9% from last year respectively. The sown area and the output of indica rice are estimated to be 18.8 million hectares and 121 million tons, decreasing by 2.85% and 4.15% from last year respectively.
According to the current development trend, the sown area and the output of paddy in China will reach 27.312 million hectares and 198.6 million tons by 2025; the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area will be 27.22 million hectares, 221 million tons, and 8126kg/hectare separately by 2030.   
From the perspective of rice production in China, domestic output can’t meet domestic demand. Accelerating the socialized service of agricultural production determines the development direction of China's agriculture, economy and society as well as China's global competitiveness. Effectively promoting double-innovation activities in rural and agricultural socialization services will greatly promote the development of rural and agricultural social services.
3.4 Coarse cereals: in 2019, the sown area and the output are estimated to be 4.149 million hectares and 12.543 million tons, increasing by 4.94% and 3.93% from last year.
Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Hebei are the largest producing areas of coarse cereals in China. In 2018, the output and the sown area of coarse cereals in these three provinces were 4.295 million tons and 1.259 million hectares, respectively accounting for 35.59% and 31.84% of the national total. It is estimated that the output and the planting area of coarse cereals in 2019 will be 4.445 million tons and 1.32 million hectares, respectively, accounting for 35.44% and 31.80% of the national total.
3.5 Barley: in 2019, driven by the continuous rise in barley prices, especially the sharp increase in international prices, China's planting area of barley will rebound to 491,000 hectares, up 11.04% from the previous year; the output is 2.156 million tons, up 16.12% from the previous year, the yield per unit area is 4387kg/ha, which is equivalent to 3729 kg of pure grain per ha. The industrialization of barley promotes the development of barley planting. The yield of barley converted into pure grain is higher than that of potatoes, leading to the replacement of potatoes by barley in central and western regions of China. More importantly, the tightening of global supply and demand will lead to a sharp rise in prices, which in turn will support the recovery of barley production.
Jiangsu and Gansu are the main producing provinces of barley. In 2019, the sown area and the output of these two provinces are predicted to be 212,000 hectares and 1.196 million tons, respectively accounting for 43.1% and 55.5% of the totals. The planting area is large in Yunnan, but the yield is far below the average. Improvement in barley variety and yield per unit area in Yunnan is important for raising barley yield and achieving self-sufficiency in China.
According to the current development trend, the sown area and the output of barley in China will reach 705,000 million hectares and 3.423 million tons by 2025; the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area will be 1.115 million hectares, 5.731 million tons, and 5142kg/hectare separately by 2030. The increase in yield is the core force to promote the development of crop planting, accelerate the investment in agricultural science and technology, and speed up the construction of specialized, socialized, market-oriented agricultural service institutions to promoting agricultural production.
3.6 Sorghum: in 2019, the sown area, the yield per unit area, and the total output of sorghum are predicted to be 696,000 hectares, 5005kg/hectare, and 3.485 million tons, decreasing by 5.14%, 0.45%, and 5.56% from last year. In 2019, the sown area and the output of China’s top 5 provinces will respectively reach 498,000 hectares and 2.71 million tons, separately falling by 6.13% and 6.36% from the year before and accounting for 71.58% and 77.77% of the national totals.
According to the current development trend, the sown area and the output of barley in China will drop to 928,000 hectares and 5.006 million tons by 2025; the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area will be 1.02 million hectares, 5.647 million tons, and 5538kg/hectare separately by 2030. The high profit of liquor producers drives the industrialization, specialization and socialization of sorghum production, which plays an important role in promoting sorghum industry and brings about the restoration of sorghum planting in China.
3.7 Soybeans: supported by national policies, the sown area, the yield per unit area, and the total output of soybeans are predicted to reach 9.524 million hectares, 2093kg/hectare, and 19.931 million tons, increasing by 6.64%, 3.15%, and 3.39% from last year respectively. In the face of the impact of the international market and other foods, the increase in soybean planting area will not continue.
According to the current development trend, the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area will be 9.519 million hectares, 21.725 million tons, and 2282kg/hectare separately by 2025, and will reach 9.592 million hectares, 22.638 million tons, and 2360kg/hectare by 2030, which is the lowest among various grain crops. There is still a huge gap between China's soybean yields and the global average. A significant increase in soybean yield per unit area is the key to solving China's soybean supply. Subsidies can only result in short-term growth, and the government needs to work harder to improve the quality of soybean seeds. To realize marketization and reduce the cost of circulation in the domestic market is the key to solving the problem.
3.7 Potatoes: it’s estimated that the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area will be 6.078 million hectares, 21.749 million tons, and 3578kg/hectare, respectively, increasing by 4.68%, 6.59%, and 1.79% from last year.  
According to the current development trend, the sown area, the output, and the yield per unit area will be 6.960 million hectares, 27.126 million tons, and 3897kg/hectare separately by 2025, and will reach 8.063 million hectares, 34.801 million tons, and 4304kg/hectare by 2030.
Overall, in 2019, due to the significant decline in prices, the production of rice and sorghum will decline, and that of rest grain crops will resume growth driven by the rebound in prices.  
In the long run, China's extremely high price of refined oil and sky-high production and circulation costs of bulk commodities will restrain planting income and production recovery. It’s found from recent in-depth studies that highly monopolized oil and railway markets have led to a sharp decline in the international competitiveness of Chinese agriculture. Accelerating the adjustment of railway operation mode and refined oil circulation market, eliminating the negative impact of the government monopoly on the economy is the key to solving the current problems.