Agricultural and food products output kept decreasing, calling for policy adjustment for economic recovery.

According to national statistics of January-April industrial products output of enterprises above designated scale, among agricultural and food products, only feed output increased by 2.6%, and the output of other products continued to decline at a drop from 2.4% to 27.2%; the average decline of total product output was 10.72%, going along the downtrend on the basis of the previous year; the drop of wine and beer output was most pronounced at rates of 27.2%和22.3%.
 
In April, the output of products showed increases and drops and averagely increased by 1.54%. Though the effect of epidemic still exists, many industries have recovered. That means the policy adjustment in the third quarter of 2019 is beneficial to economic recovery. Currently, the output of many products has fallen to the levels before 2007. We need to accelerate national commercial policy adjustment to support economic recovery.
 
1. meat production: chilled meat output of enterprises above designated scale was 2.008 million tons; accumulative output was 7.3315 million tons; month-on-month decline of 12.7%; cumulative increase was 19.4%.
 
According to the historical data, the cumulative output was 7.628 million tons, down 9.46% on a monthly basis and 19.66% on a cumulative basis. According to the current growth rate, the annual meat output was 22.36 million tons, down 40.12% from 2015, lower than the level of 2011. Meat imports in April were 860,000 tons, accounting for 42.83% of monthly output of enterprises above designated scale; the cumulative imports were 3.04 million tons, accounting for 41.33% of the cumulative output.
 
The government giving up on shopping basket project resulted in local administrations neglecting agricultural production which contributes relatively less taxes, and a sharp decline in animal husbandry industry.  
 
2. liquor production: In April, liquor output of enterprises above designated scale was 604,000 kl; the cumulative output was 2,313,000 kl; a year-on-year decline of 2.4%; a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%.
 
According to historical data, the monthly year-on-year decline was 3.97%; the cumulative output declined by11.4% from a year earlier, bringing liquor output to 7.26 million tons by the end of the year, down from 8.87 million kl in 2010.
 
3. beer production: In April, monthly beer output was 3.103 million kl, up 17.1% from the previous month; cumulative output was 8.574 million kl, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%.
 
According to the historical data, the monthly year-on-year increase was 6.23%, and the cumulative output decreased by 24.16% year on year. The beer output has declined for 7 consecutive years, the cumulative 28.26 million tons is lower than 30.62 million kl in 2005.
 
4. wine production: In April, the wine output of enterprises above designated scale was 33,000 kl, up 26.9% month on month; the cumulative output was 91,000 kl, a year on year decrease of 27.2%. The decline of cumulative output resulted from import impact and more importantly from residents’ income decline.
 
According to the historical data, the monthly output year-on-year increase was 17.86%, and the cumulative output is 48.3% lower than that of the previous year. According to the growth rate, the annual output is expected to be 270,900 kl, 77.18% lower than the historical peak output.
 
In April, the imports were 29,200 l, accounting for 46.9% of domestic supply; cumulative imports was 159,900 kl, higher than domestic output; annual imports is expected to account for 63.7% of total supply. The proportion of imported wine reached a record high; domestic wine industry keeps shrinking for the impact of import; grape supply declined and cost increased, resulting in wine output decrease.
 
The sharp decline in the production of the three major consumer spirits -- liquor, beer and wine -- is a sign of income decrease of residents. More importantly, the SMES are facing difficulty in development, and the decline of employment rate is the most core factor.
 
5. dairy production: In April, dairy products output was 2.214 million tons, up 4.8% month on month; cumulative output was 7.783 million tons, down 7.6% year on year. According to the historical data, the monthly year-on-year growth was 8.0%, and the cumulative production fell by 8.98%. The annual output is expected to be 24.76 million tons, which will be the lowest level since 2014.
 
In April, the imports were 270,000 tons, up 4.15% year on year; cumulative imports were 1.13 million tons, up 1.87% year on year. In the first four month, dairy products supply declined, showing a decline in residents’ consumption. The market share of imported products hit a new high.
 
In terms of milk powder, the April output was 94,000 tons, up 2.2% month on month; cumulative output was 333,000 tons, down 4.2% year on year. According to historical data, the monthly output year-on-year increase was 5.5%; cumulative output was 4.3359 million tons. The annual output is expected to be 1.051 million tons. The imports in April were 120,000 tons; cumulative imported products market share was 62.5%. According to the current trend, the annual market share of imported products is expected to be 55.6%, showing a declining trend.
 
In terms of liquid milk, the April output was 2.045 million tons, up 4.9% month on month; cumulative output was 7.218 million tons, down 7.7%. According to historical data, the monthly output year-on-year increase was 8.0%; cumulative output decreased by 9.2%, showing the number of enterprises above designated scale continued to decrease.
 
6. soft drink production: April output was 14.021 million tons, down 2.2% month on month; cumulative output was 44.46 million tons, down 16.1%. According to historical data, monthly output year-on-year increase was 6.67%; cumulative output decreased by 9.54%.
 
In terms of finished sugar production, the April output was 606000 tons; the cumulative output was 7.3326 million tons; monthly output down 28.0% year-on-year, cumulative decrease of 17.9%. According to historical data, monthly output decreased by 21.28% year on year; cumulative output 7.282 million tons, down 28.54 year on year. Since the new crushing season starting on last November, finished sugar output has been decreasing, showing the sugar cane planting area shrinking in south China. The decline in output of vegetables, fruits, sugar crops and cotton reflected the problems in agricultural policy.
 
7. vegetable oil production: In April, the output was 4.708 million tons; cumulative output was 15.38 million tons; monthly output increased by 22.10%, cumulative decrease of 2.70%. According to historical data of cumulative 15.282 million tons, the historical yield is lower than that of the same caliber. The output recovered with monthly increase of 23.3% and cumulative decrease of 2.70%. According to current trend, the annual output is expected to be 52.462 million tons, down 25.39% from 2017 to the level before 2013. Refined vegetable oil output decrease reflects the consumption of food in restaurants.
 
8. feed production: In April, feed output was 22.45 million tons, cumulatively 80.62 million tons, up 7.10% month on month, up 2.6% cumulatively. According to historical data, cumulative increase of 80.25 million tons, monthly output up 16.31% year on year, cumulative output up 9.4% year on year. The changes in feed mills in November and December showed that the implementation of supporting policy on SMES slowed down the decline in animal husbandry industry, and the recovery of animal husbandry industry drove up feed output; protein feed material imports increased. The vegetable oil output and soybean imports are expected to increase greatly in 2020, and animal husbandry industry will continue the recovery.
 
9. feed equipment: In April, enterprises above designated scale produced 17,425 units of feed equipment, cumulatively 87700 units, monthly year on year decrease of 20%, cumulatively down 14% year on year. The output increase rate is generally the same as historical data.
 
According to the current growth rate, the annual output is expected to be 221900 tons, down 66.1% from the historical high. The grain processing equipment output has drop to level before 2011 and is the second lowest level since 2008. The decrease of grain processing equipment output showed the decrease in number of grain and food industry new-built and technical renovation projects. Grain economy is going along a same downtrend with agricultural and sideline food prices and investment in fixed assets in manufacturing industry. The economic policy since 2014 need to be revised. Encouraging stall economy in big cities and implement effective management will help in healthy development of economy.
 
10. net output of fertilizer: In April, net output of fertilizer of enterprises above designated scale was 4.658 million tons, cumulatively 18.405 million tons, monthly output down 1.4% year on year, cumulatively down 2.4%.
 
According to historical data, cumulative 17.737 million tons, monthly output down 1.6%, cumulatively down 3.3%. The annual output is expected to be 55.89 million tons, which is the lowest level since 2014, down 26.4% from the historical high. The fertilizer output decline showed the decrease in agricultural production.
 
11. net output of pesticide: In April, enterprises above designated scale produced pesticide of 210,000 tons, cumulatively 686,000 tons; monthly output up 13.5% year on year, cumulatively down 2.6%. According to historical data, cumulative output 700,000 tons; monthly output up 20.0% year on year, cumulatively up 4.48%.
 
According to national statistics, agricultural and food products output declined obviously. Crop production showed recovery at the expense of inflation. But the residents’ consumption ability restriction, increase of logistics cost and high prices led to a decline in aggregate demand.   
 
The economic downturn urges us to conduct effective measures to accelerate economic recovery and healthy development. We shall eliminate the restrictive factors in the current system through effective institutional reform and eliminate corruption through the construction of effective social credit system. The local governments shall implement central policies through developing stall economy and solve employment problem. This is the key to solving the current economic problems.