BOABC Viewpoint

In November 2019，average hog price is 36.04 yuan/kg nationwide, decreasing by 1.14% month on month; piglet price is 77.63 yuan/kg, increasing by 22.34% month on month. In this month, the profit of feeding self-produced pigs and outsourcing pigs respectively is 2572.66 yuan/head and 1697.16 yuan/head.
ASF was sporadically confirmed in the Northeast in October, showed a trend of spreading in early November, and further spread wildly in middle November. Farms in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning sped up the marketing of hogs for fear of infection, while slaughterhouses seized the chance to force pig prices down, resulting in a sharp decline in pig prices in the Northeast as well as North China. For the price difference between the North and the South, more pigs in the North were transported to the South, which brought pig prices in the South down, and the national pig price was decreasing.
At present, national pig production is low, and large scale marketing of hogs will basically end within one month. It’s predicted that the marketing of hogs in large numbers by farms in the Northeast will draw to a close at the end of November, and pig prices in the North will be stabilized in early December. In South China, pork consumption demand began to rise in late November as the phenomena of making preserved meat are increasing in Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, and other southern provinces, and pig prices started to rebound in the South at the end of November. It’s predicted that pig prices in South China will continue to rise in December. On the whole, the large scale marketing of hogs in the Northeast will lead to a more serious shortage of hog supply before the Spring Festival, and pig prices are likely to hit another record high.
BOABC estimates that China’s slaughter of hog was about 500 million heads in 2019, decreasing by 30% year on year, pork output was 37 million tons, decreasing by 32% year on year and the average price of hog will be 20yuan/kg. The detail data are as follow: