BOABC Viewpoint: 2019 soybean imports to down to 84 million tons, Argentina soybean volume to increase

Due to the impact of African swine fever, the demand of soybean meal market in China has decreased significantly, with an estimated decline rate of 15-20%, which means that the consumption of soybean will also be reduced by more than 15%, with a decline of more than 10 million tons. On the one hand, domestic soybean demand will reduce, and on the other hand, domestic soybean output will also slightly increase, so the soybean import volume will reduce by more than 10 million tons compared with 2017, when the import volume was at its peak. It is expected that the annual soybean import volume will fall to about 84 million tons in 2019.
 
Meanwhile, trade friction between China and the United States have been escalating. China's ministry of finance announced on August 23 that it will impose a 5% tariff on imports of American soybeans from September 1. Since the trade friction between China and the United States in 2018, China's soybean imports from the United States have decreased. The 2018 US soybean imports was 16 million tons less than that in 2017, a 50% decline. Soybean imports from the United States will not exceed 10 million tons in 2019.
 
South American soybean exports to China have increased due to trade friction between China and the United States. In 2018, China imported 61.464 million tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, up 18.18% year-on-year. From October 2018 to July 2019, China imported 53.44 million tons of soybeans from the two countries, up 18.17% year-on-year.
 
In July 2019, China imported 1.07 million tons of Argentine soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 269%. Brazil's soybean supply could run out in the coming months, while China's focus could shift to Argentina, where imports are expected to reach about 8 million tons.