Forecast of industry operation in 2019/20 crushing season

By CnAgri 2019-10-11 17:04:34 Print Tel:861064402118-822 Email:

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Brief Introduction:

Table of Contents:

It is expected that there are many uncertainties in the domestic sugar market in the new crushing season, and the probability of sharp fluctuations in the sugar market is high.
(1) Whether to continue trade protective policy: The sugar trade protective policy  is expiring in May 2020, then the sugar import tariff will be reduced to 50%, which may adversely affect the domestic market.
(2) Whether to continue industry self-discipline: One of the main factors that the domestic sugar market can maintain stability is that the domestic sugar enterprises carry out industry self-discipline management, jointly maintain the market and jointly resist the adverse trend. Therefore, the continuous implementation of industry self-discipline will be an important factor affecting the future market.
(3) Implementation of direct subsidy: Direct subsidy for sugar material has been proposed for many years, but has not been implemented. The core factor restricting the competitiveness of China's sugar is the high cost of sugar material. If this problem is not fundamentally solved, the domestic sugar market will be vulnerable without trade protective measures and industry self-discipline.
(4) Pressure of state reserves: The state reserves still faces pressure of high inventory. If the sugar price recovers in the new crushing season, reserve discharging will not be ruled out.   
However, under the overall situation of ensuring the coordination of sugar production, sales and supply nationwide, it will be a high probability for China to continue to strive for protective measures and implement industry self-discipline. However, domestic futures and spot markets are easily affected by policies and other factors and result in fluctuations.
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