Yarn Production & Cotton Consumption in October

By CnAgri2012-12-03 10:31:45 Print     Yarn production by medium and large mills registered 3.04 million MT in October, 1.7% more than the month before and 15% more than the same period of last year. Yarn production totaled 26.895 million MT in January ~ October, an increase of 13.4% on the year-on-year basis. The promulgated figures showed a production increase of 18.2% in October and 13.9% in January ~ October, both on the year-on-year basis.
 
    BOABC estimates that medium and large mills consumed 965,000 MT cotton in October and 8.557 million MT in January ~ October, up 6.51% and 5.04% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Cotton consumption for various uses was estimated to be 995,000 MT in October and 8.82 million MT in January ~ October.
 
    Consumption of other fibers was estimated to be 2.087 million MT in October and 18.508 million MT in January ~ October, up 21.31% and 19.64% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
    Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu ranked top three in yarn production in October, whose productions were 751,000 MT, 449,000 MT and 379,000 MT respectively, up 17.34%, down 1.32% but up 4.41% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Jiangxi, Hubei and Hebei topped other provinces in terms of yarn production increase rate, whose production increased 64.71%, 31.77% and 27.27% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
    Cotton consumption for textile production was estimated to be 241,000 MT in Shandong, 144,000 MT in Henan and 122,000 MT in Jiangsu.
 
    Cotton inventory was 9.499 million MT at the end of October, suggesting a stock index of 9.5, up 2.2 on the year-on-year basis. The large stock resulted in a cotton price decline.
 
    Cotton inventory in October consisted of 5.426 million MT state reserve, 877,000 MT textile mills’ stock, 900,000 MT traders’ stock and 2.3 million MT on-farm stock, accounting for 57.13%, 9.23%, 9.43% and 24.21% of the total respectively. farmers sold 65% of their cotton by October, an increase of 15% on the year-on-year basis.
 
    Cotton price was RMB18,693/MT in October and RMB18,574/MT in August ~ October, down 4.87% and 5.1% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
    In the 2012/2013 crop year, cotton production is estimated to be 7.516 million MT, down 3.96% on the year-on-year basis. cotton imports are estimated to be 3.2 million MT. Year-end cotton inventory and safety index are presumed to stay at a high level. Considering little leftover in the cotton market after the government’s increased procurement, cotton price may go up to RMB19,775/MT in the year on average.
 
    In the 2013/2014 crop year, cotton acreage is predicted to shrink 3.52% and production may slip to 7.15 million MT. Year-end cotton inventory and safety index may drop moderately but cotton price may rise above RMB20,000/MT.

From “China Cotton Bi-Weekly Market Report”