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Analysis and Forecast on China Dairy Industry (2015-2016)

By CnAgri 2016-01-08 10:06:03 Print Tel:861064403086 Email: [email protected]

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Brief Introduction:

2015 was another important turning point in the history of China’s dairy industry. There was pacing up of the transition from extensive quantity growth to intensive quality and efficient growth, and there was the transition from unconventional unregulated growth to steady regulated growth. Features of China’s dairy industry in 2015: (1) China’s GDP growth was “larger than 7%”, the growth of food consumption slipped, whereas dairy processing companies were digesting their stock during most of the time. (2) Raw milk production cost kept at a high level, but raw milk price kept on falling, dairy farming ran in deficit and some farmers had to give up dairy farming. (3) Lots of dairy companies devoted great effort to exploration of the top-end market and reduced the production of medium/low-end products, which restrained dairy consumption to a certain extent. (4) The development mode of dairy company’s “high input and high output” lost the comparative advantage in international competition. While the market is completely open, domestic top-end brands are at an inferior position in international competition. (5) Quality and safety incidents involving dairy products seriously hurt consumers’ confidence on domestic made products (especially infant/young child’s formula milk powder), and such negative impacts sustained in 2015. (6) Dairy farming would continue to be under close scrutiny of the public and the Government in food safety, epidemic control and environmental pollution, and more and more attention would be attracted from the media and the society. China’s dairy industry shall still have sound development opportunities: (1) Currently the per capita milk consumption of domestic residents is less than 20kg, less than 1/4 of the world average level, more and more residents gradually recognize the nutritious value of dairy products, hence the market shall have a huge potential in the future. (2) The Government strengthens support and regulation on the industry, the processing industry is being disciplined, the competition of dairy market is becoming more orderly, and the margin of dairy processing has improved. (3) After the adoption of the two-children per family policy, the annual average net increase of population shall be larger than 3 million, hence there shall be 20 billion yuan increased demand for infant/young child’s formula milk. (4) Lots of international dairy Titans are positive towards China, while intensifying market competition, they would also help to promote the upgrading of the domestic dairy industry to a certain extent. (5) Yili became one of the Top 10 dairy enterprises in the world in 2015. Chinese dairy companies implement the “going out” strategy and the scale shall become larger and larger. This Report panoramically expounds the current situation of China dairy industry in 2015, including the production of raw milk and dairy product, dairy consumption, dairy trade, price tendency of raw milk and dairy product, operational condition of China dairy industry, competitive situation of China dairy market, business performance and investment situation of key dairy enterprise, world dairy market trend, production, consumption and trade status of major countries of dairy production and trade, influence of work dairy market environment upon China diary industry, and the forecasting upon the development tendency of China diary industry in 2016. This Report is the crystallization of collective intelligence of dairy research group of Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Limited. The senior dairy analysts of dairy research group of BOABC are the members of “thinking bank” in related government departments and associations, who keep good relationship with these departments and associations as well as national key dairy enterprise, correlative industry and enterprise. These resource superiorities provide particularly precious professional support for the composition of this Report, and also guarantee the accuracy, authority, scientificity and perspectiveness of the data cited herein. BOABC believes this Report will be the important reference material for strategic decision-making of domestic and overseas investment company, dairy enterprise, dairy burdening supplier, and related equipment supplier as well as such organizations as guild and research institution.

Table of Contents:

Chapter 1 Policy Environment for Dairy Industry in China
1.1 Overview
1.2 Policy
1.2.1 “Food Safety Law of P.R. China
1.2.2 “Advertisement Law of P.R. China”
1.2.3 “Management Methods on Food Recall”
1.2.4 “Management Methods on Licensing Food Production”
1.2.5 “Management Methods on Licensing Food Operation”
1.2.6 “Management Methods on Registration of Infant Formulas (draft)”
Chapter 2 Raw Milk Production in China in 2015
2.1 Overviews
2.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Distribution
2.3 Dairy Cattle Inventory
2.4 Raw Milk Production and Milk Yield Per-Cow
2.4.1 Milk Yield Per-Cow Increased Slightly
2.4.2 Milk Yield Increased Slightly
2.5 Raw Milk Price
2.6 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit
2.6.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost
2.6.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Profit
2.6.3 Comparative Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit in Major Provinces
2.7 Scale & Models of Dairy Cattle Farming in China
2.7.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory by Different Farming Scale
2.7.2 Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Models
Chapter 3 2015 Dairy Industry Analysis in China
3.1 Production and Management of Dairy Industry
3.1.1 Overviews
3.1.2 Sales Revenue& Profit
3.2 Dairy Processing
3.2.1 Liquid Milk
3.2.2 Solid Dairy Products
3.2.3 Milk Powder
3.2.4 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder
3.2.5 Other Solid Products
Chapter 4 Trade of Dairy Products and Other Relevant Products in 2015
4.1 Dairy Trade
4.1.1 Change in Dairy Imports Volume and Value
4.1.2 Changes in Dairy Imports by Categories
4.2 Liquid Milk Import
4.2.1 Liquid Milk Imports 0.46 Million MT
4.2.2 Liquid Milk with 1-6% Fat Content as the Major Import Category
4.2.3 Imports from Germany and France up Greatly
4.3 Milk Powder Import
4.3.1 Milk Powder Imports dropped to 0.55 Million MT
4.3.2 SMP & No-Added-Sugar WMP Still as Major Import Categories
4.3.3 Milk Powder Import Price
4.3.4 New Zealand Originated Milk Powder down Significantly
4.4 Whey Powder Import
4.4.1 Whey Powder Imports Rose
4.4.2 Import Whey Powder Mainly from US
4.4.3 Whey Powder Import Price
4.5 Milk Fat
4.5.1 Milk Fat Imports down 11% from 2014
4.5.2 Imports Milk Fat Mainly from New Zealand
4.6 Cheese Import
4.6.1 Cheese Imports up 15% from 2014
4.6.2 Imports Cheese Mainly from New Zealand, Australia and US
4.7 Infant Food Import
4.7.1 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder Imports Volume Rose
4.7.2 Import Infant Formula Mainly from EU
4.7.3 Infant Formula Import Price
4.8 Dairy Related Products Import
4.8.1 Casein Import
4.8.2 Whey Protein Concentrate (WPC) Import
4.8.3 Lactose Anhydrous Import
4.8.4 Ice Cream Import
4.9 Dairy Farming Import
4.9.1 Cattle Frozen Semen Import
4.9.1.1 Change in Frozen Semen Import Volume & Price
4.9.1.2 Frozen Semen Import Price by Original Country
4.9.2 Dairy Cattle Import
4.9.2.1 Change in Dairy Cattle Imports
4.9.2.2 Dairy Cattle Imports by Original Country
4.9.3 Hay Import
4.9.3.1 Change in Hay Imports
4.9.3.2 Change in Alfalfa Import Volume & Price
4.10 Dairy Export
4.10.1 Overview
4.10.2 Structure of Dairy Export
Chapter 5 Dairy Consumption in China
5.1 Overview
5.2 Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
5.3 Regional Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
5.4 Dairy Consumption by Rural Residents
5.5 Changes in Dairy Products Prices
5.5.1 Changes in Liquid Milk Products Prices
5.5.2 Changes in Milk Powder Price
5.6 Market Capacity of Infant Formula
5.6.1 National
5.6.2 Cities in Different Regions
5.7 Other Elements Affecting Dairy Prices
5.7.1 Price for White Sugar
5.7.2 CPI
5.7.3 RMB Exchange Rate
5.7.4 Petroleum Price
Chapter 6 Competition of China’s Dairy Market in 2015
6.1 Overview
6.2 Competition of Raw Milk Market
6.3 Competition of Infant Formula Market
6.4 Competition of Liquid Milk Market
Chapter 7 Key Dairy Processing Companies in 2015
7.1 Overview Consolidation of Dairy Companies
7.2 Key Companies
7.2.1 Yili
7.2.1.1 Operation
7.2.1.2 Strategic Measures
7.2.2 China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited
7.2.2.1 Operation
7.2.2.2 Business Review
7.2.3 Bright Diary & Food Co.,Ltd
7.2.3.1 Operation
7.2.3.2 Strategic Measures
7.2.4 Sanyuan
7.2.4.1 Operation
7.2.4.2 Strategic Measures
7.2.5 Beingmate
7.2.5.1 Operation
7.2.5.2 Strategic Measures
7.2.6 Yantang
7.2.6.1 Operation
7.2.6.2 Strategic Measures
7.2.7 Royal Dairy
7.2.7.1 Operation
7.2.7.2 Strategic Measures
7.2.8 Modern Dairy
7.2.8.1 Operation
7.2.8.2 Strategic Measures
Chapter 8 World Dairy Market in 2015
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Global Raw Milk and Processed Dairy Production
8.1.2 Global Prices of Raw Milk & Dairy Products
8.1.2.1 Raw Milk Price
8.1.2.2 Price of Dairy Products
8.2 Dairy Market of Key Dairy Producing and Trading Countries in 2015
8.2.1 New Zealand
8.2.1.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory
8.2.1.2 Dairy Cattle Yield per Cow
8.2.1.3 Milk Production
8.2.1.4 Changes in Milk Price
8.2.2 Australia
8.2.2.1 Production of Milk and Other Processed Dairy Products
8.2.2.2 Liquid Milk Production
8.2.2.3 Dairy Cattle Export
8.2.3 America
8.2.3.1 Production of Milk and Other Processed Products
8.2.4 EU
Chapter 9 Outlook of China’s Dairy Industry in 2016
9.1 Overview
9.2 Raw Milk Production
9.2.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory to Reach 14.37 Million Heads, Raw Milk Output 38.0 Million MT
9.2.2 Dairy Farm Margin to Be 3,000 RMB/Head
9.2.3 Forecast of Dairy Farming Scale Development
9.3 Dairy Processing
9.3.1 Main Varieties
9.3.1.1 Dairy Output to Increase to 29.5 Million MT
9.3.1.2 Liquid Milk Output to Increase to 26.5 Million MT
9.3.1.3 Milk Powder Output to Stay around 1.47 Million MT
9.3.2 Other Dairy Products
9.4 Forecast of 2016 Dairy Products Import and Export
9.4.1 Import
9.4.1.1 Dairy Products Imports to Growing
9.4.1.2 Milk Powder Imports rise to 0.6 Million MT
9.4.1.3 Whey Powder Imports to Reach 0.45 Million MT
9.4.1.4 Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import to Reach 0.55 million MT
9.4.1.5 Cheese Imports to Reach 85,000 MT
9.4.2 Export
9.5 Price Trend of Raw Milk and Dairy Products
9.5.1 Raw Milk Price
9.5.2 Dairy Products Price
9.6 Dairy Consumption
9.7 Competition Pattern of Dairy Market
Attached Table
 
Figures
Figure 2-1, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province
Figure 2-2, Change of Dairy Cattle Inventory in China, 1973-2015
Figure 2-3, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province in 2015
Figure 2-4, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle in China, 2005-2015
Figure 2-5, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle by Province in 2015
Figure 2-6, Raw Milk Production in China, 1973-2015
Figure 2-7, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle by Province in 2015
Figure 2-8, China Milk Price in Ten Biggest Region, 2010-2015
Figure 2-9, Corn and Soybean Meal Prices in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2010-2015
Figure 2-10, Change of Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces by Month,  2010-2015
Figure 2-11, Change in Cattle Inventory Proportion of Different Farming Sizes, 2007-2015
Figure 2-12 , Cattle Inventory Proportion of Different Farming Models in China in 2015
Figure 3-3, Liquid Milk Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2015
Figure 3-4, Area Distribution of Liquid Milk Output Production in China, 2015
Figure 3-6, Solid Dairy Products Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2015
Figure 3-7, Share of Leading Provincial Solid Dairy Production in National Total, 2015
Figure 3-8, Trend of Milk Powder Production in China, 2000-2015
Figure 3-9, Proportion of Provincial MilkPowder Production in National Total, 2015
Figure 4-1, China Dairy Products Import Structure , 2004-2015
Figure 4-2, China Fresh Milk Import Volume and Price, 2010-2015
Figure 4-3, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import Structure, 2004-2015
Figure 4-4, Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Source Country, 2003-2015
Figure 4-5, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import Prices by Source Country, 2005-2015
Figure 4-6, China Milk Powder Import Volume and Price, 2009~2015
Figure 4-7, China Milk Powder Imports by Product Category, 2003-2015
Figure 4-8, China Milk Powder Import Prices by Source Country,2006-2015
Figure 4-9, China Milk Powder Imports by Source Country, 2003-2015
Figure 4-10, China Whey Powder Imports and Growth Rate, 2003-2015
Figure 4-11, China Whey Powder Imports by Source Country in 2015
Figure 4-12, China Whey Powder Import Prices by Source Country, 2007-2015
Figure 4-13, China Milk Fat Imports and Growth Rate, 2006-2015
Figure 4-14, China Milk Fat Imports by Source Country
Figure 4-15, China Cheese Imports and Growth Rate, 2006-2015
Figure 4-16, China Cheese Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015
Figure 4-17, China Infant Formula Imports and Growth Rate, 2009-2015
Figure 4-18, China Infant Formula Imports by Source Country, 2009-2015
Figure 4-19, China Infant Formula Import Volume and Price by Month, 2013-2015
Figure 4-20, China Casein Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015
Figure 4-21, China WPC Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015
Figure 4-22, China Lactose Anhydrous Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015
Figure 4-23, China Ice Cream Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015
Figure 4-24, China Cattle Frozen Semen Import Volume and Value, 2005-2015
Figure 4-25, China Dairy Cattle Imports, 2006-2015
Figure 4-26, China Dairy Cattle Imports by Source Country in 2015
Figure 4-27, China Hay Imports and Exports, 2006-2015
Figure 4-28, China Hay Imports by Source Country, 2015
Figure 4-29, China Alfalfa Import Volume and Price by Month, 2010-2015
Figure 4-30, Structure of Dairy Export from China, by Volume, 2004-2015
Figure 5-1, Per Capita milk and Dairy Consumption Quantity of Rural Residents, 2000-2015
Figure 5-2, Change in UHT Milk and Yogurt Retail Price in China Whole Market by Month, 2013-2015
Figure 5-3, China Infant Formula Milk Powder Average Retail Price with Foreign and Domestic Brand, 2013-2015
Figure 5-4, Regional Distribution of Urban Infant Population and Infant Milk Powder Market Capacity (By Consumption Volume) in China’s Different Provinces and Regions, 2015
Figure 5-5, Average Price for White Granulated Sugar (cargo delivery price in producing venues), 2010-2015
Figure 5-6, CPI Growing Trend in China, by Month, 2008-2015
Figure 5-7, Trend of Exchange Rate between USD and RMB, 2008-2015
Figure 5-8, Trend of International Petroleum Future Price, 2006-2014
Figure 6-1, Whole Milk Powder Enterprises Number by Province, 2015
Figure 8-1, World Milk Prices, 2012-2015
Figure 8-2, Global Prices of Feed for Dairy Cattle, 2009-2015
Figure 8-3, Global Average Milk : feed Price Ratio Trend, 2010-2015
Figure 8-4, Global Prices (FAS) of WMP, 2012-2015
Figure 8-5, Global Prices (FAS) of SMP, 2012-2015
Figure 8-6, Global Prices (FAS) of Butter, 2013-2015
Figure 8-7, Global Prices (FAS) of AMF, 2012-2015
Figure 8-8, Global Prices (FAS) of Cheddar Cheese, 2012-2015
Figure 8-9, Change of Dairy Cattle Inventory in New Zealand, 2003-2015
Figure 8-10, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle in New Zealand, 2004-2015
Figure 8-11, Raw Milk Production in New Zealand, 2004-2015
Figure 8-12, New Zealand Raw Milk Price, 2004-2015
Figure 8-9, Change of Dairy Cattle Inventory in Australia, 1999-2015
Figure 8-10, Export proportion of Australian, 2015.01-2015.06
Figure 8-11, The number and proportion of China from imported Australian cows, 2015
Figure 8-12, Trend of Average Milk Prices in USA, 2012-2015
Figure 9-1, Forecast of 2016 China’s Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Production
Figure 9-2, Forecast of 2016 Percentage of Dairy Cattle Farms with more 100 Inventories
Figure 9-3, Forecast of 2016 China Dairy Output
Figure 9-4, Forecast of 2016 China Liquid Milk Output
Figure 9-5, Forecast of 2016 China Milk Powder Output
Figure 9-6, Forecast of 2016 China Dairy Imports
Figure 9-7, Forecast of 2016 China Milk Powder Imports
Figure 9-9, Forecast of 2016 China Whey Powder Imports
Figure 9-10, Forecast of 2016 China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports
Figure 9-11, Forecast of 2016 China Cheese Imports
 
Tables
Table 2-1, Feed Prices and Costs for Dairy Cattle Farming in Major Producing Provinces, 2012-2015
Table 2-2, Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2012-2015
Table 2-3, Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Cost & Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2014-2015
Table 2-4, The Division Standard of Different Cattle Inventory Sizes
Table 2-5, Cattle Inventory Proportion of Different Dairy Farming Models in China
Table 3-1, Development Indices of Dairy Industry, 2007-2015
Table 3-2, Asset Management Ratio of Dairy Industry, 2007-2015
Table 4-1 China Dairy Products Import, 2012-2015
Table 4-2, China Milk Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Product Category, 2014-2015
Table 4-3, China Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2014-2015
Table 4-4, China Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2014-2015
Table 4-5, China Frozen Semen Import Price by Original Country, 2011-2015
Table 4-6, Dairy Export from China, 2014-2015
Table 5-1, Per Capita Dairy Possession Quantity in China, 1992-2015
Table 5-2, Share of Per capita Consumpion of Dairy Products in the Total Food Consumpion of Urban Residents, 2009-2015
Table 6-1, Infant Formula Milk Powder Consumption Level Per Capita of China’s Urban and Rural Babies, 2003-2015
Table 7-1, Total Profit of Yili Group, 2011~2015
Table 7-2, Core Business of Yili Group, 1st half of 2015
Table 7-3, Core Business of Yili Group, by Region, 1st half of 2015
Table 7-4, Total Profit of Mengniu, 2011~2015
Table 7-5, Revenue of Different Products of Mengniu, 2014-2015
Table 7-6, Profit of Bright Dairy, 2011~2015
Table 7-7, Core Sector of Bright Dairy, half of 2015
Table 7-8, Core Business of Bright Dairy, by Region, half of 2015
Table 7-9, Profit of Sanyuan Foods, 2011-2015
Table 7-10, Core Sector of Sanyuan Foods, half of 2015
Table 7-11, Core Sector of Sanyuan Foods, by Region, half of 2015
Table 7-12, Financial Situation of Beingmate, 2011-2015
Table 7-13, Core Sector of Beingmate, half of 2015
Table 7-14, Core Sector of Beingmate, by Region, half of 2015
Table 7-15, Production & Business Benefits of Yantang Dairy, 2011-2015
Unit: CNY million, %
Table 7-16, Core Sector of Yantang Dairy, 2015
Table 7-17, Core Sector of Yantang Dairy, 2015
Table 7-18, Financial Situation of Royal Dairy, 2011-2015
Table 7-19, Core Sector of Royal Dairy, half of 2015
Table 7-20, Core Sector of Royal Dairy, by Region, half of 2015
Table 7-21, Total Profit of Modern Dairy, 2011~2015
Table 7-22, Total Profit of Modern Dairy, 1st Three Quarters of 2015
Table 8-1, Fluid Milk - Cow Numbers: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015
Table 8-2, Cows Milk Production and Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2016
Table 8-3, Top 20 Milk Processors List 2014
Table 8-4, Butter Production and Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015
Table 8-5, Cheese Production and Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries , 2010-2015
Table 8-6, Nonfat Dry Milk Trade: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015
Table 8-7, Whole Milk Powder Production And Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015
Table 8-8, Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Production in the US, 2011-2015
Table 8-9, Dairy Production of USA, 2013-2015
Attached Table 1, Forecast of 2015 Raw Milk Supply-Demand Balance in China
Attached Table 2, WMP Supply-Demand Balance in China, 2011-2015
Attached Table 3, SMP Supply-Demand Balance in China, 2011-2015
Attached Table 4, Dairy Products Output by Province, 2008-2015
Attached Table 5, Liquid Milk Output by Province, 2008-2015
Attached Table 6, China Dairy Imports by Tariff Item, 2008-2015
Attached Table 7, China Dairy Exports by Tariff Item, 2008-2015
Attached Table 8, China’s Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province, 2009-2015
Attached Table 9, China’s Milk Production by Province, 2008-2015
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