China Corn Market Review & Outlook 2007-2008

China Corn Market Review and Outlook focuses on the following: China corn industry develop, trend of corn further processing, market structure and product structure change, strategy suggestion to be a leading player in the industry, etc.

Research Background ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------III
Contents -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IV
Figures and Tables  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1VIII
Figures and Tables ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2 XI
1 Corn Production in 2007 and Forecast for 2008 ----------------------------------------------------------1
1.1 Weather Conditions of Main Corn Producing Regions in 2007 --------------------------------------1
1.2 Changes of Corn Acreage and Output in 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------2
1.3 Analysis of Production in Major Corn Producing Provinces in 2007 ---------------------------------3
1.3.1 Production in Jilin Province -------------------------------------------------------------------------------4
1.3.2 Production in Shandong Province----------------------------------------------------------------------- 5
1.3.3 Production in Henan Province ----------------------------------------------------------------------------6
1.3.4 Production in Hebei Province -----------------------------------------------------------------------------6
1.3.5 Production in Heilongjiang Province ---------------------------------------------------------------------7
1.4 Analysis of Production in Major Corn Producing Reagions in 2007 ---------------------------------8
1.4.1 Analysis of Summer Corn Regions in the Yellow River, Huaihe River and Haihe River plain--8
1.4.2Analysis of Spring Corn Areas in the North -------------------------------------------------------------8
1.4.3 Analysis of Mountainous Corn Growing Areas in the Southwest -----------------------------------9
1.4.4 Analysis of the Hilly Corn Areas in the South ---------------------------------------------------------10
1.4.5Analysis of Irrigated Corn Growing Areas in the Northwest -----------------------------------------10
1.5 Distribution of Main Corn Varieties in China (Zhengdan 958, Nongda 108, Ludan 981, etc) --11
1.6 Corn Seed Production in 2007 and Forecast for 2008 -----------------------------------------------12
2. Corn Trade in 2007 and Projection for 2008 in China --------------------------------------------------13
2.1 Analysis of Corn Exportin 2007 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------13
2.1.1 Corn Export Amount & Price (FOB) in 2007 ----------------------------------------------------------13
2.1.2Corn Export by Country in 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------14
2.1.3 Corn Export by Port in 2007 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------15
2.1.4 Corn Export by Provinces in 2007 ----------------------------------------------------------------------15
2.2 Analysis of Corn Import in 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------16
2.2.1 Corn Import Amount & Price (CIF) in 2007 -----------------------------------------------------------16
2.2.2 Corn Import by Country in 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------17
2.2.3 Corn Import by Port in 2007 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------18
2.3 Analysis of Imp&Exp Enterprises in 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------19
2.3.1 Major Export Enterprises in China ---------------------------------------------------------------------19
2.3.2 Major Import Enterprises in China ---------------------------------------------------------------------19
2.4 Forecast for Corn Trade in 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------20
3 Supply and Demand Relation and Forecast of Hybird Corn Seed in China, 2007 ----------------22
3.1 Main characteristics of China's corn seed industry ---------------------------------------------------22
3.1.1 Hybrid corn growing area decided the seed demand ----------------------------------------------22
3.1.2 Appraisal of new varieties of corn and characteristics in promotion ----------------------------22
3.1.3 Main categories of demands for corn seeds ---------------------------------------------------------23
3.1.4 Distribution of main varieties of corn promoted ------------------------------------------------------23
3.2 Market Demand of Corn Seed in 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------24
3.3 Analysis of market demands for main corn seeds in China -----------------------------------------24
3.3.1 Analysis of Summer Corn Region in the Yellow River, Huaihe River and Haihe River plain--24
3.3.2 Analysis of Spring Corn Areas in the North ----------------------------------------------------------25
3.3.3 Analysis of Mountainous Corn Growing Areas in the Southwest---------------------------------26
3.3.4 Analysis of the Hilly Corn Areas in the South --------------------------------------------------------27
3.3.5 Analysis of Irrigated Corn Growing Areas in the Northwest ----------------------------------------28
3.4 Analysis of Main Corn Seed Producing Areas in China ----------------------------------------------29
3.4.1 Total Supply from Corn Seed Production ------------------------------------------------------------29
3.4.2 Analysis of Seed Bases in Northwest China, inc. Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang ---30
3.4.3 Analysis of Seed Bases in Northeast China, inc. Liaoning, Jilini and Heilongjiang -----------31
3.4.4 Analysis of Seed Bases in North China, inc. Hebei, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia -------------32
3.5 Analysis & Forecast of the Supply-Demand Equilibrium of Corn Seeds in China, 2007-2008-33
3.6 Forecasting the future trends of corn seed market of China ---------------------------------------34
4 Analysis & Forecast of the Supply-Demand Equilibrium of Corn in China, 2007-2008 ----------36
4.1 Analysis & Forecast of the Total Supply of Corn in China, 2007-2008--------------------------- 36
4.1.1 Supply of Corn Output in 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------36
4.1.2 Changes of Corn Storage in 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------36
4.2 Analysis & Forecast of the Total Demand of Corn in China, 2007-2008 -------------------------37
4.2.1 Analysis of Feed Corn Demand in 2007 --------------------------------------------------------------37
4.2.2 Analysis of Further Processing Corn Demand in 2007 --------------------------------------------38
4.2.3 Analysis of Edible Corn Demand in 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------39
4.2.4 Analysis of Seed-Used Corn Demand in 2007 ------------------------------------------------------39
4.3 Analysis & Forecast of the Supply-Demand Equilibrium of Corn in China, 2007-2008 --------40
5 Analysis & Forecast of Corn Market Price in China, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------42
5.1. Analysis of Changes of Corn Futures Price in 2007 -------------------------------------------------42
5.1.1 Analysis of Chicago Corn Futures Price and Forecast --------------------------------------------42
5.1.2 Analysis of Dalian Corn Futures Price and Forecast -----------------------------------------------43
5.2 Analysis of Corn Spot Price in 2007 ----------------------------------------------------------------------45
5.2.1 Price Analysis of Main Producing Regions -----------------------------------------------------------45
5.2.2 Price Analysis of Main Consuming Regions ----------------------------------------------------------46
5.2.3 Analysis of Main Port Prices -----------------------------------------------------------------------------46
5.3. Comparison of Spot Price and Futures Price and Trend Forecast --------------------------------47
5.4 Review of Primary Incidents of Corn Market in 2007 --------------------------------------------------48
43.18 billion Yuan will be used for ‘three dimensional rural issues’ by the Central Finance in 2008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------48
Central No. 1 documents focus on agriculture infrastructure in 2008 ----------------------------------48
Quality Variety Subsidy on 170 thousand ha in Henan in 2007 ------------------------------------------49
Railway Construction Fund Readjusted for Grain Shipment in Oct. 2007----------------------------- 49
Jilin start processing project for new energy resource based on corn stalk ---------------------------49
Grain Export Tax Refund Abolished in 2008 -----------------------------------------------------------------50
Tax Imposed on Grain Exports in 2008 -----------------------------------------------------------------------50
The state plan the out put of ethanol fuel will be up to 2 million tons till 2010 ------------------------50
Ethanol fuel subsidy changed from quota system to flexible system ------------------------------------51
6. Analysis & Forecast of of Corn Further Processing Industry ------------------------------------------52
6.1 Market Review of Corn Further Processing Industry in 2007 ----------------------------------------52
6.2 Review and Outlook of Corn Starch Market in 2007 --------------------------------------------------53
6.2.1 Market Review of Corn Starch Market in 2007 -------------------------------------------------------53
6.2.1.1 Main Processed Varieties of Corn Starch and Their Market Prospects -----------------------53
6.2.1.2 Analysis of Corn Starch Production Distribution ---------------------------------------------------54
6.2.1.3 Analysis of Concentration of Corn Starch Enterprises -------------------------------------------56
6.2.1.4 Main Features of Corn Starch Production ----------------------------------------------------------56
6.2.2 Analysis of Price Level of Corn Starch in 2007 and Forecast -------------------------------------57
6.2.3 Analysis of Corn Starch Import and Export in 2007 and Forecast --------------------------------58
6.2.4 Trend of Corn Starch Further Processing in 2008 and Predictions ------------------------------59
6.3. Analysis of Alcohol and Ethanol Industrial Development in 2007 and Forecast----------------- 61
6.3.1 Analysis of Corn Alcohol and Ethanol Production in 2007 -----------------------------------------61
6.3.1.1 Rising Output of Alcohol and Ethanol ---------------------------------------------------------------61
6.3.1.2 Characteristics of Alcohol and Ethanol Production in China ------------------------------------62
6.3.1.3 Corn Consumption for Ethanol Production ---------------------------------------------------------64
6.3.2 Analysis of Import and Export Situation of Alcohol --------------------------------------------------64
6.3.3 Development of Domestic Ethanol and National Grain Safety ------------------------------------65
6.3.4 Application of Alcohol and Ethanol in 2008 and Prospects ----------------------------------------66
6.4 Review and Forecast of Disnatured Corn Starch Market ---------------------------------------------66
6.4.1 Analysis of Production of Disnatured Corn Starch in 2007 ----------------------------------------67
6.4.1.1 Review of Output of Disnatured Corn Starch ------------------------------------------------------67
6.4.1.2 Production Characteristics of Disnatured Corn Starch ------------------------------------------68
6.4.2 Analysis of Import and Export of Disnatured Corn Starch -----------------------------------------69
6.4.3 Forecast of Trend of Disnatured Corn Starch in 2008 ---------------------------------------------70
6.5 Market Analysis and Forecast for Corn Starch Sugar -------------------------------------------------71
6.5.1 Analysis of Production of Corn Starch Sugar in 2007---------------------------------------------- 71
6.5.1.1 Review of Output of Starch Sugar --------------------------------------------------------------------71
6.5.1.2 Characteristics of Corn Starch Sugar Production -------------------------------------------------72
6.5.1.3 Consumption of Corn by Corn Starch Sugar Production ----------------------------------------74
6.5.2 Import and Export Analysis of Corn Starch Sugar ---------------------------------------------------75
6.5.3 Analysis of Trend of Corn Starch Sugar in 2007 ----------------------------------------------------76
6.6 Review and Forecast for Gourmet Powder Industry ---------------------------------------------------77
6.6.1 Analysis of Production of Corn Gourmet Powder in 2007 ------------------------------------------77
6.6.1.1 Overall Output of Gourmet Powder ------------------------------------------------------------------77
6.6.1.2 Characteristics of Corn Gourmet Powder Production --------------------------------------------78
6.6.1.3 Corn Consumption by Corn Gourmet Powder Production --------------------------------------79
6.6.2 Analysis of Import and Export of Gourmet Powder --------------------------------------------------80
6.6.3 Trend of Corn Gourmet Powder in 2008 --------------------------------------------------------------81
6.7 Market Analysis of Other Further Processed Corn Products ----------------------------------------81
6.7.1 Market Analysis and Forecast for Lysine in 2007 ---------------------------------------------------81
6.7.1.1 Market Structure of Corn Lysine in 2007 -----------------------------------------------------------81
6.7.1.2 Analysis of Supply and Demand for Lysine in 2007 ----------------------------------------------83
6.7.1.3 Price Analysis of Lysine in 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------84
6.7.2 Market Analysis of Citric Acid in 2007 and Forecast ------------------------------------------------85
6.7.2.1 Supply and Demand of Citric Acid in 2007 and Forecast ----------------------------------------85
6.7.2.2 Citric Acid Production in 2007 and Forecast -------------------------------------------------------86
6.7.3 Market Analysis of Corn Oil in 2007 and Forecast --------------------------------------------------86
6.7.3.1 Corn Oil Production in 2007 and Analysis of Characteristics -----------------------------------87
6.7.3.2 Analysis of Supply and Demand of Corn Oil in 2007 and Forecast ---------------------------87
6.7.3.3 Forecast for Corn Oil Production Consumption and Trade in 2008 ---------------------------88
6.8. Overall Analysis and Forecast of Corn Further Processing Industry -----------------------------89
6.8.1 Industrial Structural Analysis of Corn Processing in 2007 -----------------------------------------89
6.8.1.1 Regional Distribution of Corn Further Processing in 2007 and Forecast ---------------------89
6.8.1.2 Analysis of Concentration Level of Corn Further Processing Enterprises in 2007 and Forecast ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------90
6.8.2 Comparative Study of Corn Further Processing Industry in China and in USA in 2007 ------90
6.8.3 Development of Corn Further Processing Industry in 2007 and Forecast ----------------------92
6.8.3.1 Analysis of Key Features of Corn Further Processing Industry --------------------------------92
6.8.3.2 Analysis of Features of Composition of Processed Products -----------------------------------93
6.8.3.3 Strategies for Future Development of Corn Further Processing Industry --------------------93
6.9. Primary Incidentes of Corn Further Processing Industry in 2007 ----------------------------------95
Corn high yield project started up in Heilongjiang ----------------------------------------------------------95
Approval system on corn ethanol ------------------------------------------------------------------------------95
Changchun plan to build a biochemical industry base with 8 millions tons corn treatment capacity -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------96
Experts Suggest Jilin Further Develop Corn Deep-Processing ------------------------------------------96
2.4 million tons corn further processing project in Jilin would be restricted. ---------------------------97
50 billon Yuan will be invested to the corn further processing project in Jilin by COFCO -----------97
Changchun Dacheng started up a project with 2.25 million tons corn processing capacity --------97
2 million tons output capacity corn Biochemical Industry Area with total 2.6 billion investment set up in Zhaoyuan --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------98
Chifeng signed a 100 thousand tons corn processing project -------------------------------------------98
ANNEX: TABLES --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------99
Appendix II: The Guidelines on Promotion Bio Fuel Ethanol Project Healthy Development of the Industry from NDRC (Policy & Measures) -------------------------------------------------------------------112