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Analysis of overall situation of China's grain imports and exports in January-April 2019

By CnAgri 2019-07-01 15:46:24 Print Tel:861064402118-822 Email: chen.wang@boabc.com

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Brief Introduction:

Table of Contents:

In terms of food imports, the total import of grain products including cereals, potatoes and beans in April was 3.78 billion U.S. dollars, down 5.3% year-on-year, accounting for 28.3% of the total agricultural imports in the month; the total grain import volume in this month was 10.06 million tons, down 4.9% from the same period of last year; monthly import price was US$375/ton, down 0.7% from the previous month and up 0.4% from the same period last year.
From January to April, the cumulative import volume of grain was 32.83 million tons, down 14.3% year-on-year; the import value was 12.87 billion US dollars, up 4.4% year-on-year. with the decrease in domestic food prices fall and the rise in international prices, China’s total food imports declined. From the perspective of food imports, the trade war has no obvious impact on food imports.
Analysis of grain imports by varieties: In April, the import volume of cereals and its powder was 1.51 million tons, down 51.8% year-on-year; the import value was 420 million US dollars, down 32.6% year-on-year; the monthly import price was USD278/ton, down 3.87% year-on-year. From January to April, the total import volume was 7.88 million tons, down 32.63% year-on-year; the import value was 2.365 billion dollars, down 28.13%; the cumulative import price was USD300 /ton, up 6.69%.
The increase in international cereal prices has a significant impact on import volume and import value, indicating that China's imports are mainly affected by  domestic and foreign spreads. When the spread narrows, trade profits will fall, resulting in a decrease in grain imports.
To increase infrastructure investment in rural areas, improve the basic system, give farmers the local average pension level, promote land transfer, realize the scale and industrialization of agricultural industry, achieve the world's advanced level of yield, and realize the potential grain output of more than 850 million tons will provide opportunities for us to export nearly 100 million tons of grain and supply abundant ecological resources, ensuring sufficient supply of various agricultural products.   
In April, soybean import volume was 7.36 million tons, down 24.0% year-on-year; the import value was 2.879 billion US dollars, down 31.9% year-on-year; the monthly import price was 391 USD/ton, down 10.4% year-on-year. The Sino-US summit meeting has temporarily liberalized soybean import which led to the decline in import prices. The Trump trade war will not make the US stronger again, on the contrary, it will endanger the healthy development of the global economy and have an obvious negative impact on direct entities.  
From January to April, the cumulative import volume of soybeans was 31.75 million tons, down 122.0% year-on-year; the import value was 13.207 billion US dollars, down 14.3% year-on-year, and the import price was USD 416 /ton, down 2.30% year-on-year.
For other food imports, the import volume of other food in April was 640,000 tons, down 16.4% year-on-year; the import value was US$190 million, down 8.4% year-on-year; the import price was USD290/ton, up 9.7% year-on-year. Affected by the rebound in the value of the US dollar and the decline in the supply of cassava in Southeast Asia, the import prices of other food products have increased in the new sales year since November 2017.
From January to April, the cumulative import value was US$5.8, down 26.9% year-on-year; the import volume was 2.07 million tons, down 36.1% year-on-year, and the import price was US$282/ton, up 14.4% year-on-year. The price increase has curbed import demand, resulting in sharp decline in import volume and import value.
In terms of grain exports, in April, the total export volume was 490,000 tons, up 48.5% year-on-year; export value was US$249 million, up 10.97% year-on-year; the average export price was US$508/ton, down 25.16% year-on-year. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 1.28 million tons, up 24.27% year-on-year; the export value was 710 million US dollars, down 1.42% year-on-year; the export price was 555 US dollars/ton, down 20.67% year-on-year. The decline in export prices is not consistent with the rise in import prices and changes in the international macro environment. China's export prices are lower than domestic prices, which should be concerned. 
By varieties, in April, the export volume of cereals and its flour was 400,000 tons, up 100% year-on-year, and the export price was 364 US dollars/ton, down 17.8% year-on-year. Rice was the main export commodity. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 980,000 tons, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year, the export price was 385 US dollars/ton, down 21.66%. Affected by the adjustment of national policies, domestic food prices have fallen significantly, which is conducive to promoting grain exports. However, the export price of rice is far lower than the domestic price.
In April, the export volume of potato was 20,000 tons, down 33.3% year-on-year; the export value was 21.644 million US dollars, down 26.4%; the export price was 1082 yuan/ton, up 10.42% year-on-year. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 100,000 tons, down 28.6% year-on-year; export price was USD969/ton, down 11.5% year-on-year; export value was 96.916 million dollars, up 23.8% year-on-year. In terms of the highly marketed potato trade, the price increase has a significant inhibitory effect on exports.
In April, the export volume of beans was 70,000 tons, down 22.2 year-on-year; the export price was 1,170 US dollars/ton, down 1.17%; the export value was 819.05 million dollars, down 23.14% year-on-year. From January to April, the total export volume of beans registered at 200,000 tons, falling by 16.67% from the previous year; the export value was 236 million US dollars, down 19.04%; the export price was 1181 US dollars/ton, down 2.84%. The decline in China’s export prices is lower than the decline in international soybean prices, indicating that changes in the macro environment have led to relatively fierce competition in the international soybean market.
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