Analysis of China Agricultural Product Trade and Agriculture Investment, from January to May, 2019

According to Customs statistics, China's foreign trade showed a downward trend from January to May 2019, and the growth rate of foreign agricultural product trade also declined significantly. Imports of edible farm produce saw a decline in quantity, a growth in value, and an obvious increase in price. Relevant departments should strengthen coordination to be on guard against the impact of international markets on domestic prices.  
1) General situation of agricultural product imports and exports
Agricultural product trade: in May, China’s imports and exports of agricultural products totaled 19.46 billion dollars(133.0 billion yuan, up 2.16%), a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%. From January to May, the accumulative trade value was 90.18 billion dollars (610.1 billion yuan, up 8.96%), a year-on-year growth of 2.35%. Since the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes in October, 2018, China’s monthly trade value of agricultural products has saw decreases for four months and increases for three months year-on-year, and the monthly average showed a growth trend. In May, farm produce trade value accounted for 5.04% of the total trade value.
In May, China’s imports of agricultural products were 12.81 billion dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 7.05%; from January to May, the cumulative imports of agricultural products reached 60.18 billion dollars, up 5.54% year-on-year. The imports of farm produce in May accounted for 7.44% of the total imports of commodities, which ranked only second to that of petroleum ( a share of 15.25%) and was close to that of minerals (7.39%). The total imports of these three basic materials accounted for 30.08% of China’s total imports in May, at an all-time high.
In May, China’s exports of agricultural products were 6.64 billion dollars, basically the same as that of the same period last year; the cumulative exports in the first five months of 2019 totaled 30 billion dollars, down 3.5% year-on-year. Since February, 2019, the cumulative exports of agricultural products have been decreasing. In recent several years, China’s agricultural production was declining, and domestic farm produce prices have been rising since the second half of 2018, which led to a sharp decrease in China’s competitiveness in agricultural product exports. The exports of agricultural products in May accounted for 3.1% of China’s total exports.
In May, China’s deficit of agricultural product trade was 6.17 billion dollars(42.2 billion yuan, down 7.3%), a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%, accounting for 2.9% of the total exports of commodities. In the first five months of 2019, the cumulative trade deficit of farm produce totaled 30.18 billion dollars(204.41 billion dollars, up 23.8%), a year-on-year increase of 16.37%. The trade deficit ratio (the ratio of trade deficit to GDP) was 31.73% in May and 33.50% in the first five months of 2019.
2) In terms of investment, from January to May, the total investment in primary industry was 583.7 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, the first decline since 2006.
In May, agricultural investment was 202.4 billion yuan, down 10.16% year-on-year， accounting for 3.25% of all investment. Since the beginning of 2019, monthly investment has been declining. The deficit in May accounted for 20.8% of the total investment in the month; the cumulative trade deficit in the first five months accounted for 35.8% of the total investment, an increase of 0.9% over the previous year.
In May, the investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry totaled 245.58 billion yuan, down 8.35% year-on-year, accounting for 4.0% of the total investment. From January to May, the total investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry was 786.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, (Note: The National Bureau of Statistics did not announce the actual investment of enterprises above designated size in 2018, and the data was calculated based on the year-on-year growth rate. Similarly hereinafter.) accounting for 3.6% of total urban fixed assets investment. In the first five months, the investment of planting industry was 377.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5%; that of forestry was 73.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.3% over the previous year; that of animal husbandry was 166.94 billion yuan, down 5.8%; that of fishery was 52.018 billion yuan, an increase of 20.2 %, the only sector seeing growth; that of agricultural service industry was 116.85 billion yuan, down 5.3%.
From the perspective of monthly investment, the investment for planting industry was 112.7 billion yuan, down 8.11%; that for forestry was 28 billion yuan, up 6.36% from the previous year; that for animal husbandry was 55.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.36%; that for fishery was 14.8 billion yuan, up 4.35% year-on-year; that for agricultural service sector was 34.4 billion yuan, rising by 18.99% year-on-year. The decrease in investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and various sub-sectors needs to be paid attention to, and is not conductive to the improvement of industrial competitiveness.
 Agricultural product trade by category
3) Grain imports: in May, the total imports of grain products including cereal, potatoes and beans were 3.44 billion U.S. dollars, down 35.0% year-on-year, accounting for 26.9% of total agricultural products imports. The total import volume of grain in May was 9.34 million tons, down 30.1% month-on-month. The monthly import price was USD369/ton, down 1.8% from the previous month and 7.0% year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative import volume of food was 42.17 million tons, down 18.4% year-on-year; the cumulative import value was 16.3 billion dollars; the average import price was USD 386.5 /ton, up 1.6% year-on-year. 
Grain imports by variety: In May, the import volume of cereal and its flour was 1.51 million tons, down 51.81% year-on-year; the import value was 420 million dollars, down 53.67% year-on-year; the monthly import price was USD278/ton, down 3.87% year-on-year, the new low level since September. The total import volume from January to May was 7.88 million tons, down 32.63% year-on-year; the cumulative import value was 2.365 billion dollars, down 28.13%; the average import price was USD300 /ton, up 6.69%.
In May, the import volume of soybeans was 7.36 million tons, down 24% year-on-year; the import value was 2.879 billion dollars, down 12.2% year-on-year; the monthly import price was USD391/ton, down 10.4% year-on-year. Since Trump initiated the trade war in the world in 2018, China’s imports of soybeans have been declining both in quantity and value. In particular, after additional tariffs were announced between the two countries in October 2018, China’s imports of soybeans sharply fell by 21% year-on-year.  
From January to May, the cumulative import of soybeans was 31.75 million tons, down 12.2% year-on-year; the import value totaled 13.207 billion dollars, down 14.3% year-on-year, and the import price was USD416/ton, down 2.3% year-on-year. As for imports by country, in the first five months of 2019, China’s import value of US soybeans was 2.127 billion dollars, down 66.86% year-on-year, accounting for 16.08% of the total amount of China's soybean imports, a further decrease compared to the 18.54% in 2018. In terms of import volume, China imported only 5.286 million tons of soybeans from the United States, down 65% year-on-year, accounting for 16.65% of China’s total imports, lower than the 18.90% in the previous year.
China’s import value of soybeans accounted for 22.47% of the total imports of agricultural products in May; the cumulative import value in the first five months of 2019 accounted for 21.95% of the total. China’s import volume of soybeans accounted for 78.8% of that of agricultural products in May; the cumulative import volume in the first five months of 2019 accounted for 21.95% of that of the total.
Imports of other grain crops: in May, the import volume of other grain crops was 471,000 tons, down 13.7% year-on-year; the import value was 140 million dollars, down 12.1% year-on-year; the average import price was USD305/ton, up 1.9% year-on-year.
In the first five months of 2019, the cumulative import value of other grain crops was 73,000 dollars, down 24.4% year-on-year; the import volume totaled 2.54 million tons, down 32.8% year-on-year; the average import price was USD254/ton, rising by 12.5% year-on-year. The growth in import price restrained import demand.
4) Grain exports: in May, China’s total export volume of grain was 440,000 tons, a year-on-year growth of 91.30%; the export value was 2.318 billion dollars, up 48.99% year-on-year; the export price was USD527/ton, down 22.12% year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 1.72 million tons, up 37.6% year-on-year; the export value was 9.426 billion dollars, a year-on-year growth of 7.53%; the average export price was USD548/ton, down 21.85%.
By variety, in May, the export volume of cereal and its power was 370,000 tons, the same as last year; the export price was USD374/ton, up 1.64% year-on-year. In the first five months of 2019, the cumulative export volume was 1.34 million tons, up 71.79% year-on-year; the average export price was USD389/ton, down 21.26% from the previous year. The export price was lower than domestic price, indicating that China’s foreign trade is not market-oriented.  
In May, China’s export volume of potatoes was 40,000 tons, and the export price averaged USD950/ton, up 10.42% year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative export volume totaled 140,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.65%; the average export price was USD963/ton, up 16.74% year-on-year. The rise in domestic agricultural product prices led to the growth in export prices.
The export volume of soybeans was 40,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%; the average export price of soybeans was USD1273/ton, up 6.60% year-on-year. The rise in export price restrained export demand. From January to May, China totally exported 240,000 tons of soybeans, down 20.0% year-on-year; the export price averaged USD1195/ton, up 2.12% year-on-year.
In terms of bean export, in May, the export volume of soybeans was 10,000 tons, down 50.00%; the average export price was USD976/ton, up 61.38% year-on-year. The export price of soybeans was close to the international price of non-GMO soybeans, and returned to a basically reasonable state. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of soybeans was 60,000 tons, down 14.98% year-on-year; the export price average USD821/ton, up 16.73% year-on-year. The market-oriented operation will help China’s non-GM soybeans return to the international market.
5) Vegetable oil import: the import volume of vegetable oil was 710,000 tons, up 17.22% year-on-year; the import value was 471 million dollars, down 0.63% year-on-year; the import price was USD665/ton, down 15.23% year-on-year. Vegetable oil imports have risen sharply since the trade dispute, significantly replaced soybean imports.
From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 3.19 million tons, up 42.24% from the previous year; the total import value reached 2.108 billion dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.74%; the import price averaged USD661/ton, falling by 14.41% from the previous year. The import value of vegetable oil accounted for 3.5% of that of all agricultural products.
In May, the import volume of oilseeds was 390,900 tons, down 41.44% year-on-year; the average import price was USD644/ton, up 16.41% year-on-year; the cumulative import volume was 9.07 million tons, realizing a year-on-year growth of 2.35 times; the import price was USD585/ton, down 3.60% year-on-year.  
In May, the import value of soybeans, oilseeds, and vegetable oil totaled 3.601 billion dollars, accounting for 28.1% of the total imports of agricultural products. The total import volume of soybeans, oilseeds, and vegetable oil (converted into crude oil) registered at 2.182 million tons, up 16.1% year-on-year, accounting for 50.8% of that of enterprises above designated size.
In the first five months of 2019, the cumulative import value of soybeans, oilseeds, and vegetable oil amounted to 16.95 billion dollars, down 9.81% year-on-year, accounting for 28.2% of that of agricultural products. The total import volume of soybeans, oilseeds, and vegetable oil (converted into crude oil) registered at 9.84 million tons, accounting for 48.9% of that of enterprises above designated size.
7) Imports of edible animal products (Note: including meat, aquatic products, and raw milk after February 2018), in May, the total import volume was 1.039 million tons, up 22.5% year-on-year; the import value was 3.13 billion dollars, a year-on-year growth of 30.5%; the import price was USD3015/ton, up 6.6% from the previous year. The import value of edible animal products in this month accounted for 24.4% of that of agricultural products, a record high, and the import price also hit a historical high.
From January to May, 2019, the import volume and import volume of edible animal products were 5.41 million tons and 16.1 billion dollars respectively, increasing by 52.7% and 59.7% year-on-year; the average import price was USD2984/ton, up 4.6% year-on-year.
7) Imports of other products
Imports of dry and fresh fruits: the import volume was 720,000 tons, up 36.35% year-on-year; the import value was 1.053 billion dollars, increasing by 34.63% from the previous year; the average import price was USD1455/ton, down 1.26% year-on-year. The import value of dry and fresh fruits accounted for 8.22% of that of agricultural products. From January to May, the cumulative import volume and import value of dry and fresh fruits were 3.46 million tons and 5.326 billion dollars respectively, increasing by 39.06% and 34.98% year-on-year; the average import price was USD1541/ton, falling by 2.93% year-on-year. The cumulative import value of dry and fresh fruits accounted for 8.22% of that of agricultural products in the first five months of 2019.
In May, the import volume of sugar was 380,000 tons, up 90% year-on-year, and it’s 2.2 times of domestic sugar production, a historical high level; the monthly import price was USD338/ton, down 13.0% from the previous year; the international price of raw sugar was USD274/ton, up 4.9% year-on-year. The import value of sugar accounted for 1.0% of that of agricultural products.  
From January to May, the cumulative import volume of sugar was 930,000 tons, down 15.5% year-on-year, accounting for 9.0% of domestic output of the same period.
6) Overall analysis of edible agricultural product import
The total import value of main food including grain, meats, dry and fresh fruits, sugar, and edible animal products was 6.96 billion dollars in May, down 14.60% year-on-year, accounting for 54.3% of that of all agricultural products, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. From January to June, the import value totaled 32.08 billion dollars, up 0.65% year-on-year, accounting for 53.3% of that of agricultural products, down 3.41% from the previous year.  
From the perspective of import volume, in May, the import volume of food materials was 12.58 million tons, down 22.39% year-on-year, accounting for 5.05% of that of all commodities. In the first five months of 2019, the import volume of food materials amounted to 56.93 million tons, down 10.67% year-on-year, accounting for 4.70% of that of all commodities, a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%.
The average price of food materials was USD553/ton in May and USD563/ton in the first half of 2019, which increased by 10.03% and 12.67% year-on-year respectively.