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Analysis of the impact of grain production changes on society

By CnAgri 2019-11-06 11:23:33 Print Tel:861064402118-822 Email: chen.wang@boabc.com

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3.1 Analysis and study of the impact on employment: In 2018, the per capita income of rural residents was 14,617 yuan, while that of urban residents was 39,251 yuan. To reach the average per capita income levels of rural and urban residents, 3.18 hectares and 8.54 hectares need be cultivated respectively. To achieve the average income levels of rural and urban households, 12.41 hectares and 33.32 hectares should be planted respectively.
According to the growth of residents’ income in the first three quarters of 2019, the disposable income of rural residents and urban residents respectively reached 15962 yuan/person and 42077 yuan/person. Each laborer need plant 3.96 hectares and 10.45 hectares of food crops to reach the average disposable income of rural residents and urban residents respectively. To achieve the average income levels of rural and urban households, 15.45 hectares and 40.74 hectares of grain are required to be planted respectively.
 
3.2 Analysis of the impact on overall economy and society
China's arable land area is 135 million hectares, which can afford 34.110 million rural workers or 12.939 million urban workers to achieve full employment, which decreased by 4.5% and 12.9% from the previous year, respectively.
Impact analysis for 2018: In 2018, farmers suffered a loss of 206.6 billion yuan for planting grain crops, and their disposable income fell by 185.5 billion yuan compared with the previous year. Rural residents’ annual consumption propensity hit a record high of 0.83.  The decrease in grain income made the total social demand dropped by 10911 billion yuan, which was 1.21% of the annual GDP and 1.07% of the annual social demand.
State revenue was reduced by 195.7 billion yuan, profits of related non-agricultural industries decreased by 72.4 billion yuan, and the quantity of non-agricultural employment fell by 847,800. Taking into account the impact of agricultural industry, it brought about a drop of 14.77 million people in employment and a decrease of 453.7 billion yuan in net income.
Impact analysis for 2019: In 2019, farmers suffered a loss of 257.2 billion yuan for planting grain crops, and their disposable income fell by 50.6 billion yuan compared with the previous year. Rural residents’ annual consumption propensity registered at 0.83 in the first three quarters of 2019. The changes in grain income made the total social demand dropped by 253.1 billion yuan, which was 0.26% of the annual GDP and 0.25% of the annual social demand.
State revenue was reduced by 49.9 billion yuan, profits of related non-agricultural industries decreased by 15.7 billion yuan, and non-agricultural employment decreased by183,700 people. The changes in grain planting brought about a drop of 4.43 million people in employment and a decrease of 116.2 billion yuan in net income.
Full employment can achieve social income and output of 6.10 trillion. In fact, the number of newly increased farmers in the first three quarters of 2019 was only 2.01 million, the hidden unemployment of the whole society increased by 2.42 million people, and the social output fell by 
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