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Analysis and Forecast on China Feed Industry (2015-2016)

By CnAgri 2016-04-13 11:15:00 Print Tel:861064402118-822 Email: chen.wang@boabc.com

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Keywords:Analysis and Forecast on China Feed Industry (2015-2016)
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Brief Introduction:

In 2015, due to a downturn of livestock and poultry farming sectors such as a drop in hog stocks and a continuous loss for poultry farming, feed output dropped slightly. China’s macroeconomic growth entered a middle-high-speed growth period instead of a high-speed growth and the development of feed for livestock and poultry also represented new features. Although China’s feed output kept stable with some decline, yet production profit improved. Influenced by an increase in supply at home and abroad, the prices of feed materials such as corn and soybean meal kept falling, of which corn price decreased by 20% year on year; soybean meal price has approached to a low level during the period of financial crisis in 2008, and many listed feed companies’ profits all increased greatly. Economic structural transformation will continue in 2016 and feed producers and livestock/poultry farming companies also will have good developmental opportunities and challenges. This report will represent: main feed materials’ production, consumption and trade; changes in market price in main feed materials; operational situation of feed sector and competitiveness trends about feed sector; operating performance and investment situation of key feed companies; forecast on developmental trends of feed sector in 2016. BOABC has been paying attention to China’s feed sector for 20 consecutive years and also has been maintaining good relations with governmental departments, associations and key feed companies. Based on accurate and authoritative data, this report will represent scientific forecasts. BOABC’s report will provide important decision-making to domestic and foreign feed material producers, traders, feed producers and investment companies and also will provide important reference for industrial associations and research institutions.

Table of Contents:

Chapter 1: Chinese Feed Feed Industry Analysis and Forecast
1.1 The Change of Chinese Feed Production in 2015
1.1.1 2015 Industrial Feed Output Recorded 192 Million MT, down 2.5% Year on Year
1.1.2 Large-Scale Feed Companies’ (Groups’) Output Descended
1.2 The Change Of Chinese Feed Product Structure in 2015
1.2.1 Proportion of Compound Feed in Industrial Feed Output Increased To 84.8%
1.2.2 Concentrated Feed Output Went Down 9.2%
1.2.3 Additive Premix Feed Output Decreased
1.3 2015 Feed Production And Structural Changes In Different Poultry Species
1.3.1 Hog Feed Output Dropped 15.2%
1.3.2 Meat Poultry Feed Output Ascended 15.1%
1.3.3 Egg Poultry Feed Output Fell 1.9%
1.3.4 Aqua Feed Output Went Down 17.9%
1.3.5 Ruminate Feed Production Declined Slightly by 2.8%
1.3.6 Prices of Feed for Livestock/Poultry Kept Dropping
1.4 2016 Chinese Industrial Feed Industry Forecast
1.4.1 Industrial Feed Output to Steadily Go up
1.4.2 Corn Price to Be Lower and Protein Feed Price to Maintain a Low Level
1.4.3 Industry Consolidation to Be Further Accelerated and Industrial Concentration to be Further Improved
Chapter 2: China Corn Market Analysis and Forecast
2.1 Chinese Corn Market Policy Analysis
2.1.1 Planting Structure Adjusted, Reducing Corn Planting Areas in Non-dominant Producing Areas
2.1.2 A Drop in Purchase Price for Temporary Storage Corn for the First Time
2.1.3 Subsidies for Corn Further Processing Companies Increased
2.2 2015 Chinese Corn Production
2.2.1 China Corn Output increased by 8.93 million MT in 2015
2.2.2 Corn Planting Areas and Yield both Improved
2.3 2015 China Corn Trade
2.3.1 Corn Imports Amounted To 4.73 Million Tons
2.3.2 Corn Import from US Decreased, while Increased from Ukraine
2.3.3 China Corn Export Continued Declining
2.4 2015 China Corn Demand
2.4.1 Corn Consumption Down 0.4% Year on Year
2.4.2 Feed Output Dropped and Feed Corn Consumption Fell
2.4.3 Increased Demand for Corn Processing
2.5 Temporary Storage Price Decreased, Corn Market Price Went Down
2.6 Replacement Demand for Corn in 2015
2.6.1 Sorghum Imports Reached 10.69 Million MT
2.6.2 Barley Imports Reached 10.73 Million MT
2.6.3 Wheat Price Increased and Substitution Volume Decreased
2.7 2016 China Corn Market Forecast
2.7.1 Temporary Corn Storage Policy to be Further Reformed and Stocks for Temporary Storage to be Alleviated
2.7.2 Corn Planting Structure Adjustment, Acreage Will Be Reduced
2.7.3 Due to Difference on Domestic and Foreign Price, Corn Import to Ascend Steadily
2.7.4 Owing to a Cheap Price, Cereal Alternative Import Volume to Further Ascend
Chapter 3: Plant Protein Feed Market Analysis and Forecast
3.1 Soybean Meal Market Analysis and Forecast
3.1.1 Global Soybean Output Increased and Soybean Meal Output Ascended
3.1.2 Soybean Import Kept Growing
3.1.3 Due to an Increase in Soybean Supply, Soybean Meal Price Kept Decreasing
3.1.4 Proportion of Protein Meal in Feed Increased
3.1.5 Soymeal Meal Exports Fell by 19%
3.1.6 Japan Still as the Largest Destination Country for Soybean Meal
3.2 Rapeseed Market Analysis and Forecast
3.2.1 Rapeseed Sowing Areas Reduced and Rapeseed Meal Output Kept Decreasing
3.2.2 Rapeseed Meal Feed Consumption Fell by 1.37%
3.2.3 Imported Rapeseed Reached 4.46 million MT, down 12%
3.2.4 Rapeseed Import Reduced by 54.7%
3.2.5 Along with a Drop in Soybean Meal Price, Rapeseed Meal Price Fell
3.3 Cottonseed Meal Market Analysis and Forecas
3.3.1 Cottonseed Output Went Down and Supply was Tight
3.3.2 Cottonseed Meal Export Continued Declining
3.3.3 Sustainable Development of Cattle and Sheep Farming, Demand for Cottonseed Meal Rose
3.3.4 Cottonseed Meal Price Fell
3.4 DDGS Market Analysis and Forecast
3.4.1 Owing to a Serious Deficit, Operating Rate of Alcohol Companies Reduced
3.4.2 DDGS Producers are Mainly Located in the Corn Producing Areas of Northeast and Huang-Huai Region
3.4.3 2015 DDGS Imports Volume Reached 6.82 Million MT
3.4.4 Anti-dumping and Anti-subsidy Investigation on DDGS Import
3.5 China Plant Protein Supply and Demand Balance Analysis and Forecast
Chapter 4: Animal Protein Feed Market Analysis and Forecast
4.1 International Fishmeal Market Analysis and Forecast
4.1.1 Global Fish Meal Output Saw a Recovery Growth and Trade Scale Stabilized
4.1.1.1 2015 Peru’s Fishing Quotas Ascended and Global Fish Meal Output Increased by 9%
4.1.1.2 2015 Global Fish Meal Export Was Almost Same as 2014
4.1.2 China’s Fishmeal Output Decreased and Import Reduced
4.1.2.1 Owing to a Reduce in Fish Resource in Costal Areas, China’s Fishmeal Output Decreased by 5%
4.1.2.2 Fishmeal Import Registered 1.025 Million MT, down 1.3% Year on Year
4.1.2.3 Concentration of Fishmeal Import was High and Import Volume from Peru Increased
4.1.3 Feed Fishmeal Demand Reduced Obviously and Consumption in Aquaculture and Hog Farming was More Centralized
4.1.3.1 Fishmeal Demand Decreased down 11.2% to 1.35 Million MT
4.1.3.2 90% Fishmeal for Aqua Feed and Hog Feed
4.1.4 2015 Fishmeal Price Lowered, but Average Price still Was Higher 2014
4.1.5 Along with a Recovery of Livestock/Poultry Farming and Aquaculture, 2016 Fishmeal Demand will Keep Stable with Some Growths
4.2 MBM Market Analysis and Forecast
4.2.1 Domestic Production Decreased, Imported Meat and Bone Meal Rose 45% YOY
4.2.2 China’s Imported Meat and Bone Meal Mainly from Uruguay, Australia and US
4.2.3 A Fall in Fish Meal Price Impacted the Price of Meat and Bone Meal
4.3 Chinese Animal Protein Supply and Demand Balance Analysis and Forecast
Chapter 5: Feed Additives Market Analysis and Forecast
5.1 Vitamin Market Analysis and Forecast
5.1.1 Owing to an Overcapacity, Vitamin A was in an Oversupply
5.1.2 China Vitamin A Export Volume Down 10%, Export Price Down 20%
5.1.3 Vitamin A number of Imports Fell by 10%, Import Price Down 20%
5.1.4 Along with an Oversupply and a Downturn of Downstream Consumption, Vitamin Price Lowered
5.1.5 Thanks to Production Shut down of Major Plants, Vitamin Price to Ascend
5.2 Lysine Market Analysis and Forecast
5.2.1 Due to an Overcapacity, Lysine Price Kept Decreasing
5.2.2 Lysine Export Price Decreased Slightly, Export Volume Increased Greatly
5.2.3 Lysine salts and esters export increased slightly
5.3 Methionine Market Analysis and Forecast
5.3.1 Due to the Depression of Breeding, Lysine Import Dropped
5.3.2 Methionine Import Volume and Price Increased by 26,600 MT and 15.3%
5.3.3 Export Volume of Methionine Increased by 6 Times, Export Price down 53%
Chapter 6: China Feed Industry Enterprise Group Analysis and Forecast
6.1 Main Industrial Feed Groups’ Production and Operation
6.1.1 Along with the Accelerating of Feed Industry Integration, Number of Companies Reduced Sharply
6.1.2 Along with a Slowdown of Capacity Expansion, Number of New Projects Reduced
6.1.3 Large Feed Enterprise Groups’ Operating Performance Differentiated
6.2 Analysis on Large Feed Enterprise Groups
6.2.1 New Hope Liuhe
6.2.2 Wens Group
6.2.3 Twins Group
6.2.4 CP Group
6.2.5 Haid Group
6.2.6 Zhengbang Group
6.2.7 Tongwei Group
6.2.8 Dabeinong Group
6.2.9 Tangrenshen Group
6.2.10 Wellhope Group
6.2.11 TECON
6.2.12 Jinxinnong
6.2.13 Tech-Bank Group
6.3 Analysis and Forecast on Feed companies in 2016
6.3.1 Feed Output to Increase Steadily
6.3.2 Industrial Integration to Be Accelerated and the Strong to be Stronger
6.3.3 Material Prices still to Drop and Feed Companies to Maintain a High Profit

Attached Figures
Attached Figure 1: Corn Price in Production Area, 2012-2015
Attached Figure 2: Corn Price in Consumption Area, 2012-2015
Attached Figure 3: Corn Price in Ports, 2012-2015
Attached Figure 4: Corn Protein Powder Price, 2012-2015
Attached Figure 5: Corn Germ Meal Price, 2012-2015
Attached Figure 6: DDGS Price, 2012-2015
Attached Figure 7: Lysine Price, 2012-2015
Attached Figure 8: Corn Price Gap between North and South Port, 2011-2015
Attached Figure 9: Profit of Imported Corn, 2011-2015
Attached Figure 10: Hog Inventory, 2011-2015
Attached Figure 11: Fertile Sow Inventory, 2011-2015
Attached Figure 12: Hog Slaughter Volume of Large-Scaled Slaughterhouses, 2008-2015
Attached Figure 13: China Grain import Volume, 2011-2015
Attached Figure 14: Soybean Meal Price, 2013-2015
Attached Figure 15: Rapseed Meal Price, 2013-2015
Attached Figure 16: Cottonseed Meal Price, 2013-2015
Attached Figure 17: Fish Meal Price, 2013-2015
Attached Figure 18: Lysine Price, 2013-2015
Attached Figure 19: Vitamin A Price, 2013-2015
Attached Figure 20: Calcium Hydrophosphate Price, 2013-2015
Attached Figure 21: China Corn Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Figure 22: China Soybean Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Figure 23: China Rapseed Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Figure 23: CIF Price of imported Soybean, 2008-2015
Attached Figure 24: World corn Production and Trade
Attached Figure 25: US Corn Production and Yield, 2001-2015
Attached Figure 26: World Soybean Production and Trade, 2001-2015
Attached Figure 27: US soybean Production and Export, 2001-2015
Attached Figure 28: stocks of Imported Soybean in Port
Attached Figure 29: Crushing Margins of Imported Soybean, 2008-2015
Attached Figure 30: Auction Volume and Average Transaction Price of Temporary Storage Corn
Attached Figure 31: Auction Volume and Average Transaction Price of Trans-province Corn

Attached Tables
Attached Table 1: China Major Grain Import Volume, 2010- 2015
Attached Table 2: China Corn Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 3: China Corn Export by Country of Destination, 2015
Attached Table 4: Corn import by Enterprise 2015
Attached Table 5: Soybean Meal Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 6: Soybean Meal Export by Country of Destination, 2015
Attached Table 7: Soybean Meal Export by Enterprise, 2015
Attached Table 8: Rapseed Meal Export by Country of Destination, 2015
Attached Table 9: Rapseed Meal Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 10: Cottonseed Meal Export by Country of Destination, 2015
Attached Table 11: Barley Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 12: Barley Import by Enterprise, 2015
Attached Table 13: Sorghum Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 14: Sorghum Import by Enterprise, 2015
Attached Table 15: DDGS Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 16: DDGS Import by Enterprise, 2015
Attached Table 17: Fish Meal Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 18: Fish Meal Import by Enterprise, 2015
Attached Table 19: MBM with Cattle and Sheep Ingredients Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 20: MBM-free Cattle and Sheep Ingredients Import by Original Country, 2015
Attached Table 21: Whey Powder Import by Enterprise, 2015
Attached Table 22: Lysine Export by Enterprise, 2015
Attached Table 23: Methionine Import by Enterprise, 2015
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