Research Report on China Beef Cattle Industry 2016 meat beef cow cattle

By CnAgri 2016-05-24 15:49:03 Print Tel:861064402035 Email: [email protected]

Price: RMB40000(English Version) RMB30000(Chinese Version)

Research Report on China Beef Cattle Industry

Brief Introduction:

Since 2013, the state paid high attention to the development of beef cattle industry, defined the policy that beef production should base on domestic and basically realize self-sufficiency and insisted in the general requirement of stabilizing and developing pastoral area. The state introduced multiple policies in stock breeding, standardized scale breeding, improved breed farm building and other aspects to support the development of domestic beef cattle industry. In 2015 the state continuously increased support to the development of beef cattle industry and issued document within the year, namely “MOA’s Opinions on Completing 2015 Agricultural and Rural Economic Work Well” which points out that the state would vigorously develop herbivorous livestock industry, increase support to standardized scale beef cattle farm (breeding area) and implement projects of expanding group and increasing quantity of basic cows mainly in Hebei, Shandong and Henan.

Basic Information:

For the differences of competitive situation and voice, the income level of various links of China’s beef industrial chain is different. From the perspective of industrial chain, deep processing link of beef still is lacked now, high profit links include breeding cattle breeding in upstream and preliminary processing and beef sales in downstream.

Table of Contents:

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Contents
1 Report Summary. 1
2 Development of China’s Beef Cattle Industry. 5
2.1 China’s Macro-economic Situation. 5
2.2 China’s Relavent Policies for Beef Cattle . 5
3 Analysis of China’s Beef Supply. 7
3.1 China’s Beef Output 7
3.2 Beef Production Is Frozen Beef-dominated. 8
3.3 High-end Beef Market Is Black Cattle-dominated. 8
3.4 Beef Output Is Hopeful to Increase Slightly in Next Five Years. 10
3.5 High-end Beef Supply Will Increase Continuously in Next Five Years. 10
4 Analysis of China’s Beef Consumption. 11
4.1 Inhabitants’ Meats Consumption Trend . 11
4.2 Consumption Structure of Beef 12
4.2.1 Beef Consumption. 12
4.2.2 Beef Consumption Structure of Different Ways. 12
4.2.3 Urban and Rural structure of Beef Consumption. 13
4.3 Beef Market Size is Enlarged Rapidly. 13
4.4 China’s Beef Consumption Maintains Growth Momentum in Next Five Years. 14
4.5 Growth of China’s Beef Market Size Slows Down in Next Five Years . 15
5 Analysis of China’s Beef Trade. 16
5.1Beef Import 16
5.1.1 Import Volume and Import Price. 16
5.1.2 Distribution of Source Countries. 18
5.1.3 Importing Enteprises. 19
5.1.4 Analysis of Import Volume in the Future. 19
5.2 Beef Export 20
5.2.1 Export Volume and Export Price. 20
5.2.2 Distribution of Export Destinations. 21
5.2.3 Exporting Enterprises. 22
5.2.4 Analysis of China’s Beef Export Trade in theFuture. 22
6 Analysis of China’s Beef Cattle Industrial Chain. 22
6.1 Breeding Bull Raising . 23
6.1.1 Development Situation of Propagating Industry of Breeding Bull 23
6.1.2 Development Models of Breeding Bull Enterprises. 25
6.1.3 Cost-benefit Analysis of Breeding Bull Enterprises. 26
6.1.4 Five Forces Analysis of Propagating Link of Breeding Bull 27
6.2 Beef Cattle Raising. 27
6.2.1 General Situation of Beef Cattle Raising Industry. 27
6.2.1.1 Beef Cattle Inventory Shrinks Continuously. 27
6.2.1.3 Beef Cattle Slaughter Declines Gradually . 30
6.2.1.4 Scale Development of Beef Cattle Raising. 31
6.2.1.5 Development Situation of Superior Regions . 31
6.2.1.6 China’s Beef Cattle Slaughter Will Increase at Low Speed in Next Five Years   32
6.2.2 Analysis of Typical Model of Beef Cattle Breeding. 33
6.2.3 Cost-benefit Analysis of Beef Cattle Breeding. 35
6.2.4 Five Forces Analysis of Beef Cattle Breeding Industry. 37
6.3 Beef Cattle Slaughtering. 38
6.3.1 General Situation of Beef Cattle Slaughtering and Processing Industry. 38
6.3.2 Main Business Types of Beef Cattle Slaughtering and Processing Enterprises  39
6.3.3 Cost-benefit Analysis of Beef Cattle Slaughtering and Processing. 39
6.3.3.1 Beef Cattle Slaughtering Workshop. 39
6.3.3.2 Scale Slaughtering and Processing Enterprises. 39
6.3.4 Five Forces Analysis of Slaughtering and Processing Industry. 41
6.4 Beef Circulation. 41
6.4.1 Circulation of Domestic Beef 41
6.4.2 Circulation of Imported Beef 42
6.4.3 Differences among Factory Price,Wholesale Price and Retail Price . 42
6.4.4 Circulation of Beef and Beef Products of Typical Enterprises. 43
6.5 Benefit Distribution of Various Links of Industrial Chain. 44
7 Analysis of Typical Business Model 44
7.1 Business Model of Domestic Beef Cattle Enterprises. 44
7.2 Whole Industrial Chain Model 45
7.3 Reseach on Benchmarking Enterprises(King Bull, etc.) 45
7.3.1 Company Profile. 45
7.3.2 Business Segments and Position. 45
7.3.3 Operation Situation. 46
7.3.4 Analysis of Business Model 46
7.3.5 Analysis of Profit Model 47
8 Analysis of Investment Attractiveness of Domestic Beef Cattle Industry. 47

Logical frame of research
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1 Report Summary

²  Industry Policy
Since 2013, the state paid high attention to the development of beef cattle industry, defined the policy that beef production should base on domestic and basically realize self-sufficiency and insisted in the general requirement of stabilizing and developing pastoral area. The state introduced multiple policies in stock breeding, standardized scale breeding, improved breed farm building and other aspects to support the development of domestic beef cattle industry.
 
In 2015 the state continuously increased support to the development of beef cattle industry and issued document within the year, namely “MOA’s Opinions on Completing 2015 Agricultural and Rural Economic Work Well” which points out that the state would vigorously develop herbivorous livestock industry, increase support to standardized scale beef cattle farm (breeding area) and implement projects of expanding group and increasing quantity of basic cows mainly in Hebei, Shandong and Henan.
²  Beef Supply
China’s slaughter of beef cattle was 24.7 million head in 2015, the slaughter of top five provinces including Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shandong, Hebei and Jilin accounted for 48% of national slaughter. Currently, beef cattle breeding is individual breeding dominated, but the ratio of scale breeding is raising year by year, the proportion of scale breeding (farm with annual slaughter of 50 head is defined as scale farm) reached 31% in 2015.
 
China’s beef output was 5.46 million tons, down by 2% year on year, realizing a compound growth rate of -1.44% from 2009 to 2015. It’s estimated that beef output will reach about 6.00 million tons in 2020, increasing by 546,000 tons from 2015, realizing a compound growth rate of 1.92%.
²  Beef Demand
Beef consumption(exclude smuggling of meat) was 5.93 million tons in domestic in 2015, and the compound growth rate was -0.11% from 2009 to 2015. Domestic beef market size was 373.7 billion yuan in 2015, and the compound growth rate was 11.26% from 2009 to 2015.
 
In recent years, the market size of beef expands rapidly, and price factor has a more obvious driving effect on the growth of beef consumption market. From 2009 to 2015, the retail price of beef realized a compound growth rate of 11.39%, while the beef consumption did not change in the same period.
 
It’s estimated that China’s beef market size will be about 490 billion yuan in 2020, the compound growth rate will be 5.57% from 2015 to 2020 and much lower than the 11% from 2009 to 2015.
 
As for consumption volume, domestic beef demand still has upside potential, the consumption volume of beef(exclude smuggling of meat) will reach 7 million tons in 2020 and the compound growth rate will be 3.38% from 2015 to 2020.
 
From the view of price, beef price is much higher than that of chicken, pork and other meats, and the compound growth rate of beef retail price reached 14% in domestic from 2009 to 2014, while the compound growth rate of per capita disposable income was 12% in domestic during the same period. BOABC thinks that price growth which is higher than that of disposable income may make beef price facing increase bottleneck, consumers’ will of paying premium further for beef is likely to be limited, it’s estimated that the retail price of beef will be about 70 yuan/kg in 2020.
²  Beef Trade
China imported 473,800 tons beef in 2015, the compound growth rate of beef import volume reached 82.04% from 2010 to 2015 mainly because that the growth of beef consumption was faster than that of beef output in domestic and the price difference between home and abroad stimulated the fast growth of beef import volume.
 
China’s output (supply) and consumption of beef both will increase in the future, but the growth rate of output will be lower than that of consumption, the degree of self-sufficiency of beef shows downward trend, it’s predicted that import volume will increase further. China’s import volume of beef will be about 1,000,000 tons by 2020, accounting for 14.3% of the total consumption.
²  Industrial Chain
For the differences of competitive situation and voice, the income level of various links of China’s beef industrial chain is different. From the perspective of industrial chain, deep processing link of beef still is lacked now, high profit links include breeding cattle breeding in upstream and preliminary processing and beef sales in downstream.
Figure 1 Profit Level of Various Links of Beef Cattle Industrial Chain
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²  Typical Business Model
As for the entry points of the industrial chain, beef cattle industry has three kinds of enterprises, of which, the enterprises adopting whole industrial chain model is the most competitive.
Figure 2 Domestic beef cattle Industrial Chain Cut-in Model
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²  Beef Cattle Industry Investment Analysis
Domestic beef demand is increasing gradually in the future, while supply end is backward relatively, the concentration ratio of large scale enterprises is lower and their operation situation is general, market gap is likely to be enlarged further. Overall, China’s beef cattle industry is an emerging industry, but it has relatively high actual operative difficulty and lacks good business model, problems including large capital, import impact, cattle source shortage, channel building, etc. are hard to be solved.
 
So BOABC thinks the investment attractiveness of domestic beef cattle industry is medium.
Figure 3 Domestic Beef Cattle Industry Investment Attractiveness Analysis
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From the perspective of industrial investment, BOABC thinks that the key success factors of domestic beef cattle industry include breeding in upstream, increasing cattle source, dealer internet, deep processing technology and retail channel.
Figure 4 Key Success Factors of Beef Cattle Enterprises
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