BOABC Viewpoint

In October 2019，average hog price is 36.46 yuan/kg nationwide, increasing by 31.52% month on month; piglet price is 63.46 yuan/kg, increasing by 19.01% month on month. In this month, domestic feeding profit of hogs slides down rapidly, of which, the profit of feeding self-produced pigs and outsourcing pigs respectively is 2637.95 yuan/head and 1975.24 yuan/head.
 
At present, local cities and provinces have issued policies to control pork prices, but they actually have little effect due to short supply of pigs. The national pig price has increased to 36.46yuan/kg in October, a month-on-month growth of 31.52% and a year-on-year growth of 161.78%. In many southern provinces, pig prices have broken through 40yuan/kg.
Prediction on pig price in November:
The retail price of pork in China has increased to 55yuan/kg at the end of October, which has exceeded the acceptable price of most residents. According to our survey, most pork vendors said that pork consumption has started to decline recently. In a short time, pork consumption  is expected to fall continuously. In a longer term, pork consumption will rebound in late November as the Spring Festival is coming and residents may accept the high pork price to some extent, driving up pig prices.
It’s estimated that pig prices will further rise to 41-43yuan/kg, averaging over 40yuan/kg in November.
 
BOABC estimates that China’s slaughter of hog was about 500 million heads in 2019, decreasing by 30% year on year, pork output was 37 million tons, decreasing by 32% year on year and the average price of hog will be 20yuan/kg. The detail data are as follow: