Special Report on China's Rapeseed Oil Market
By CnAgri 2011-05-13 15:23:25
Print Tel:861064402118-822 Email: chen.wang@boabc.com
Price: RMB30000(English Version) RMB20000(Chinese Version)
Brief Introduction:
1 What is the policy environment prospect of vegoil processing industry in China?
2 How much potential will rapeseed oil demand grow further?
3 What is the production capacity of rapeseed oil like in the future in China?
4 What is the future processing scale of rapeseed oil under the background of the overall oil processing
industry?
5 What is the future trend of import and export of rapeseed oil in China?
Table of Contents:
1. Introduction to Quality of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal 12
1.1 Analysis of Nutrition Quality of Rapeseed Oil 12
Figure1, Comparison of Dietary Fat 12
Table1, Comparison of Dietary Fat 13
1.2 Analysis of Nutrition Quality of Rapeseed Meal 13
Table2, Comparison of canola meal nutrient composition between China Canada and Europe 14
Table3 Digestibility coefficients of essential amino acids for pigs and poultry 14
2. Policy Environment of China’s Rapeseed oil Industry 15
2.1 Evolvement of Policies for Growing Oilseeds in China 15
2.2 Assessment of Policy Guidance for China’s Oil and Fat Industry 16
2.3 Policy Trend for China’s Vegetable Oil Trade 18
2.4 Trend of China’s Bio-energy Development and Policy Guidance 20
Table 4, Changes of Biological Energy Policies in China, 2000-2007 20
2.5 Analysis of National Reserve of Edible Oil and the Rotation Policy 21
2.6 Changes of China’s Rapeseed Oil Quality Standards and Evaluations 23
Table 5, Character Index of Rapeseed Oil in China 24
Table 6, Quality Index of Rapeseed Oil in China 24
Table7, Quality Index of Expelling & Extracted Finished Rapeseed Oil in China 25
3. Analysis of the Prospects of China’s Rapeseed Oil Consumption 26
3.1 China’s Vegetable Oil Consumption and its Position at the World Market 26
3.1.1 The Weight of China’s Vegetable Oil Consumption in the World Market 26
Figure2, Distribution of Vegoil Consumption in the World 26
3.1.2 Analysis of China’s Vegetable Oil Consumption Trend 26
Figure3, Trend of Vegoil Consumption in China, 2000/01-2007/08 27
3.2 Status of Rapeseed Oil in China’s Vegetable Oil Consumption and Future Trend 27
Figure4, Proportion of Vegoil Consumption by Varieties in China, 2006/2007 28
3.3 China’s Rapeseed Oil Consuming Structure and the Trend 28
Figure 5 Trend of Rapeseed Oil Consumption in China, 1993/94-2007/08 29
Figure 6 Change Trend of Consumption Structure of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1993/94-2007/08 29
Figure 7 Consumption Structure of Rapeseed Oil in China, 2006/2007 Corp Year 29
3.4 Analysis of Prospects of Household Consumption of Rapeseed Oil in China 30
3.4.1 Analysis of the Trend of Household Consumption of Edible Vegetable Oil 30
Figure 8 Trend of Household Consumption of VegOil in China, 1999-2006 30
Figure 9 Changes of Per Capita Expenditure of Edible Oil Consumption in China, 1995-2005 31
3.4.2 Household Food Consuming Structure of Residents and the Trend 31
Figure 10 Growth Trend of Food Expenditure in China, 1995-2006 31
Figure 11 Growth Trend of Oil and Fats Expenditure in China, 1995-2005 32
Figure 12 Changes of Proportion of Oil Expenditure by Urban Residents in China, 1995-2005 33
Figure 13 Changes of Structure of Food Expenditure by Urban Residents in China, 1995-2005 33
Figure 14 Structure of Food Expenditure by Urban Residents in China, 2005 34
3.4.3 Income Growth and its Influence on Household Consumption of Vegetable Oil 34
Figure 15 Growth Trend of Resident Income, 1978-2006 34
Figure 16 Comparison of Income Trend and Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents in China, 1995-2006 35
Table 8 Comparison of Per Capita Vegoil Consumption and Income Trend by Urban Residents in China 36
3.4.4 Analysis of the Growth Potential of Vegetable Oil Household Consumption from the Solid Population Growth 36
Figure 17 Comparison of Household Vegoil Consumption and Population Growth in China, 1999-2006 37
Figure 18 Stable Growth of Population in China, 1978-2006 37
Table 9 Comparison of Total Household Vegoil Consumption and Population Growth in China 37
3.4.5 Distribution of China’s Main Rapeseed Oil Consuming Regions 38
3.4.6 Estimates of the Growth Potential of Household Consumption of Rapeseed Oil 38
Figure 19 Growth Trend of Household Rapeseed Oil Consumption in China, 1993/94-2010/11 39
3.5 Analysis of Restaurant Consumption of Rapeseed Oil in China 39
3.5.1 Development of the Restaurant Industry and Influence on Vegetable Oil Consumption 39
Figure 20 Trend of Income of Catering Industry in China, 1994-2007 40
Figure 21 Stable Growth of Outside Dining Consumption by Urban Residents in China, 1995-2005 41
3.5.2 Impact on Vegetable Oil Restaurant Consumption from Urbanization Process 41
Figure 22 Trend of Urbanization Progress in China, 1978-2006 42
Figure 23 Comparison of Vegoil Consumption and Outside Dining Consumption by Urban Residents in Catering Industry in China, 1997-2005 42
3.5.3 Regional Distribution of Restaurant Consumption of Vegetable Oil 42
Figure 24 Distribution of Income of Catering Industry in China, 2006 43
Table 10 Comparison of Catering Industry Development in the West and East Regions 43
3.5.4 Estimates of the Growth Potential of China’s Restaurant Consumption of Rapeseed Oil 43
Figure 25 Consumption Trend of Rapeseed Oil in Catering Industry in China, 1993/94-2010/11 44
3.6 Analysis of the Prospect of Industrial Consumption of China’s Rapeseed Oil 44
3.6.1 Analysis of the Prospect of China’s Vegetable Oil Processing Industry 44
3.6.2 Main Forms of Industrial Consumption of Vegetable Oil and the Trend 44
3.6.3 Demands for Bio-diesel in China and the Trend 45
3.6.4 Prediction of the Growth Potential of China’s Industrial Demands for Rapeseed Oil 45
3.7 Rapeseed Oil Price Fluctuation and the Impact on Demands for Rapeseed Oil 46
Figure 26 Price Ratio of Rapeseed Oil to Soybean Oil in China, 1995-2007 46
3.8 Evaluation and Prediction of China’s Rapeseed Oil Demand Growth 47
Figure 27 Domestic Consumption Growth Trend of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1993/94-2010/11 47
4. Analysis of Supply Situation of Rapeseed Oil in China 48
4.1 Changing Trend of Rapeseed Acreage and Output 48
4.1.1 Change of Acreage 48
Figure 28 Changes of Total Planting Areas of Rapeseed in China, 1990-2007 48
4.1.2 Change of Output 49
Figure 29 Changes of Total Production of Rapeseed in China, 1990-2007 49
4.1.3 Analysis of Growing Potential of Rapeseed Production and Outlook 50
Figure 30 Comparison of Rapeseed Planting Areas and Total Infield Areas in China, 1996-2006 50
Figure 31 Change Trend of Per Yield Acreage of Rapeseed, 1996-2006 51
Figure 32 Analysis & Forecast of Growth Potential of Rapeseed Production, 1990-2012 52
4.2 Layout of Rapeseed Production 52
4.2.1 Layout 52
Figure 33 Regional Layout of Planting Areas of Rapeseed in China, 2006 54
4.2.2 Changes of Rapeseed Production of Main Provinces 54
Figure 34 Changes of Planting Areas of Rapeseed in Main Producing Provinces, 1990-2006 55
Table 11 First Ten Provinces with Largest Rapeseed Acreage, 1990-2006 55
Figure 35 Changes of Yield Per Acreage of Rapeseed in Main Producing Provinces 56
Figure 36 Changes of Production of Rapeseed in Main Producing Provinces 57
Table 12 First Ten Provinces with Largest Rapeseed Production, 1990-2006 57
4.3 Basic Situation of Rapeseed Processing in China 58
4.3.1 Quantity, Scale and Layout of Processing Companies 58
Figure 37 Regional Layout of Rapeseed Processing Areas 60
Figure 38 Regional Layout of Rapeseed Purchase Quantity in China (Top 100) 61
4.3.2 Processing Chain of Rapeseed and Main Products 61
4.3.3 Output of Rapeseed Processed Products 61
Figure 39 Trend of Rapeseed Oil & Rapeseed Meal Output in China, 1993/94-2007/08 62
4.4 Analysis of Processing Efficiency of Rapeseed 62
4.4.1 Status of Rapeseed Processing Efficiency in Oilseed Processing 62
Figure 40 Comparison of Different Oilseeds Processing Profit in China 63
4.4.2 Analysis of Rapeseed Processing Efficiency and Trend 63
Figure 41 Comparison of Processing Profit of Rapeseed and Soybean, 2002-2007 64
4.5 Changes of Rapeseed Oil Production and Trend 64
4.5.1 Total Output and Trend of Rapeseed Oil 64
Figure 42 Changes of Output of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1993/94-2006/07 65
4.5.2 Changes of Rapeseed Oil Output of Main Producing Regions 65
Figure 43 Output of Rapeseed Oil by Provinces in China, 1996/97-2007/08 65
4.5.3 Changes of Supply of Substitutes 66
Figure 44 Comparison of Vegoil Supply Structure by Varieties in China, 1998 vs 2006 66
Figure 45 Trend of Total Vegoil Supply in China, 1998-2006 67
Figure 46 Trend of Vegoil Supply Structure in China, 1998-2006 67
Figure 47 Trend of Imported Vegoil Supply Structure by Varieties in China, 1998-2006 68
Figure 48 Trend of Domestic Oilseeds Nutrition Supply Structure in China, 1998-2006 69
4.6 Analysis of Import and Export Trend of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed 69
4.6.1 Import and Export of Rapeseed 69
Figure 49 Imports of Rapeseed in China, 1992-2006 70
Figure 50 Proportion Changes of Imported Rapeseed from Main Original Countries, 1992-2006 71
Figure 51 Exports of Rapeseed in China, 1995-2006 71
Figure 52 Comparison of Imports and Exports of Rapeseed in China, 1995-2006 72
4.6.2 Import and Export of Rapeseed Oil 72
Figure 53 Imports of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1992-2006 73
Figure 54 Proportion Changes of Imported Rapeseed oil from Main Original Countries, 1992-2006 73
Figure 55 Exports of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1995-2006 74
Figure 56 Comparison of Imports and Exports of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1998-2006 75
4.7 National Reserve of Rapeseed Oil 75
4.7.1 Changes of National Reserve 75
4.7.2 Layout of National Reserve Depots and Capacity 75
Figure 57Distribution of Rapeseed Oil State Reserve in China 76
4.7.3 Rotation Speed and Outlet of Rapeseed Oil 76
Table13, Rotation of State Reserve of Rapeseed Oil, 2003-2007 77
5. Forecast of Supply and Demand of Rapeseed Oil and Price 78
5.1 Equilibrium of Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand 78
Figure 58 Price & Stock of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1994/95-2006/07 78
Figure 59 Changes of Rapeseed Oil Stock in China, 1993/94-2007/08 79
Table 14 Rapeseed Oil Supply & Demand Balance Sheet in China, 2002/03-2007/08 79
5.2 Trend of Spot Price of Rapeseed Oil and Forecast 79
Figure 60 Trend of Spot Price of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1995-2007 80
6. Case Study of Typical Rapeseed Enterprises 81
6.1 Analysis of Vertical Development of Key Rapeseed Enterprises 81
6.1.1 COFCO Ruixiang Grain and Oil Industry (Jingmen) Co., Ltd. 81
Table 15 Profit Statement of COFCO Xiangrui Oils & Grains Industries (Jinmen) Co., ltd 82
6.1.2 Xinyuan Grain and Oil (Wuhan) Co., Ltd. 82
Table 16 Profit Statement of Yueyang Xinyuan Oils & Grains Industries Co., ltd 84
6.1.3 Anhui Fengyuan Oil and Fat Co., Ltd 84
Table 17 Profit Statement of Anhui Fengyuan Oils Co., ltd 86
6.1.4 Zhejiang Xinshi Oil and Fat Holding Co., Ltd. 86
Table 18 Profit Statement of Zhejiang Xinshi Oils Co., ltd 87
6.2 Horizontal Comparison of the Competitiveness of Key Rapeseed Enterprises 88
Figure 61 Comparison of Profitability & Cost between Different Enterprises 89
7. Supply and Demand for Rapeseed Oil in the World 90
7.1 Global Output of Rapeseed Oil 90
Figure 62 Total Output & Planting Areas of Rapeseed in the World, 1994/95-2007/08 90
7.2 Output of Rapeseed by Main Producing Countries 90
Figure 63 Layout of Main Rapeseed Producing Countries, 2006-2007 91
Figure 64 Proportion Changes of Main Rapeseed Producing Countries, 1994/95-2007/08 91
Figure 65 Changes of Output of Rapeseed in Main Producing Countries, 1994/95-2007/08 92
7.3 Global Output of Rapeseed Oil 92
Figure 66 Trend of Output of Rapeseed Oil in the World, 1994/95-2007/08 92
7.4 Status of Rapeseed Oil in World Vegetable Oil 93
Figure 67 Proportion Change of Different VegOil Output in the World, 1994/95-2007/08 93
Figure 68 Comparison of Different VegOil Output in the World, 2006-2007 93
7.5 Output of Rapeseed Oil of Main Producing Countries 94
Figure 69 Output of Rapeseed Oil in Main Producing Countries in the World, 1996/97-2005/06. 94
7.6 Rapeseed Oil Consumption in the World 94
Figure 70 Consumption of Rapeseed Oil in the World, 1994/95-2007/08 95
7.7 Consumption of Rapeseed Oil of Main Countries 95
Figure 71 Consumption of Rapeseed Oil in Main Consuming Countries in the World, 1997/98-2005/06 95
7.8 Export of Rapeseed Oil in the World 96
Figure 72 Changes of Exported VegOil by Varieties, 1994/95-2007/08 96
Figure 73 Comparison of Rapeseed Oil Export and Vegoil in the world, 1994/95-2007/08 96
Figure 74 Exports of Rapeseed Oil by Countries in the World, 1997/98-2005/06 97
7.9 Import of Rapeseed Oil in the World 97
Figure 75 Imports of Rapeseed Oil in Main Importing Countries, 1996/97-2005/06 97
7.10 Equilibrium of Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand in the World 98
Figure 76 International Rapeseed Oil Price and its Stock in the World, 1994/95-2007/08 98
Figure 77 Changes of Stock of Rapeseed Oil in the World, 1994/95-2007/08 98
Table 19 Rapeseed Oil Supply & Demand Balance Sheet in the World, 1994/95-2007/08 99
8. Supply in Canada 100
8.1 Supply and Demand of Rapeseed Oil in Canada 100
8.1.1 Output of Rapeseed Oil and Forecast of Canada 100
Figure 78 Changes of Output of Rapeseed and Mustard Seed in Canada, 1990-2005 100
8.1.2 Oil Crushing of Rapeseed in Canada 101
Figure 79 Weekly Crush of Rapeseed in Canada, 2005/06-2007/08 101
8.1.3 Export of Rapeseed from Canada 101
Figure 80 Exports of Rapeseed and Mustard Seed in Canada, 1990-2005 102
8.1.4 Equilibrium of Supply and Demand of Rapeseed in Canada 102
Figure81，Stock & its Changes of Rapeseed in Canada, 2004/05-2007/08 102
Table20，Canada Rapeseed Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 2004/05-2007/08 103
8.2 Supply and Demand of Rapeseed Oil in Canada 103
8.2.1 Output of Rapeseed Oil in Canada 103
Figure 82 Output of Rapeseed Oil in Canada, 1994/95-2007/08 103
8.2.2 Export of Rapeseed Oil from Canada 104
Figure 83 Exports of Rapeseed Oil in Canada, 1994/95-2007/08 104
8.2.3 Equilibrium of Supply and Demand of Rapeseed Oil in Canada 104
Figure 84 Stock & its Changes of Rapeseed Oil in Canada, 2004/05-2007/08 104
Table 21 Canada Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 2004/05-2007/08 105
8.3 Policy Analysis of Rapeseed and Oil in Canada 105
8.3.1 Agricultural Policy on Rapeseed Oil in Canada 105
8.3.2 Policy on Import and Export of Rapeseed and Oil of Canada 106
9. Supply in EU 107
9.1 Supply and Demand of Rapeseed Oil in EU 107
9.1.1 Output of Rapeseed Oil in EU and Forecast 107
Figure 85 Output of Rapeseed in the EU, 1996/97-2007/08 107
9.1.2 Export of Rapeseed from EU 107
Figure 86 Exports of Rapeseed in the EU, 1996/97-2007/08 108
9.1.3 Equilibrium of Rapeseed Supply and Demand in EU 108
Figure 87 Stock & its Changes of Rapeseed in the EU, 2004/05-2007/08 108
Table 22 EU Rapeseed Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 2004/05-2007/08 109
9.2 Supply and Demand of Rapeseed Oil in EU 109
9.2.1 Output of Rapeseed Oil in EU 109
Figure 88 Growing Trend of Output of Rapeseed Oil in the EU, 1994/95-2007/08 109
9.2.2 Demand for Rapeseed Oil in EU 109
Figure 89 Domestic Demand for Rapeseed Oil in the EU, 1994/95-2007/08 110
Figure 90 Structure Changes of Domestic Demand for Rapeseed Oil in the EU, 2002/03-2007/08 110
9.2.3 Export of Rapeseed Oil from EU 111
Figure 91 Exports of Rapeseed Oil in the EU, 1994/95-2007/08 111
9.2.4 Equilibrium of Supply and Demand for Rapeseed Oil in EU 111
Figure 92 Changes of Stock of Rapeseed Oil in the EU, 2002/03-2007/08 111
Table 23 EU Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 2002/03-2007/08 112
9.3 Analysis of Policy on Rapeseed and Oil in EU 112
9.3.1 Agricultural Policy on Rapeseed in EU 112
9.3.2 Policy on Import and Export of Rapeseed and Oil of EU 114
10. Supply in Australia 116
10.1 Supply and Demand for Rapeseed in Australia 116
10.1.1 Rapeseed Output and the Estimate 116
Figure 93 Changes of Output of Rapeseed and Mustard Seed in Australia, 1990-2005 116
10.1.2 Rapeseed Export 116
Figure 94 Changes of Exports of Rapeseed and Mustard Seed in Australia, 1990-2005 117
10.1.3 Domestic Demands for Rapeseed 117
Figure 95 Changes of Domestic Demand for Rapeseed and Mustard Seed in Australia, 1990-2005 117
10.1.4 Demand-supply Equilibrium of Rapeseed 118
Figure 96 Changes of Stock of Rapeseed & Mustard Seed in Australia, 1990-2005 118
Table 24 Australia Rapeseed & Mustard Seed Supply and Demand Balance Sheet, 1990-2005 118
11. World Futures Market for Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil 119
11.1 Canadian Rapeseed Futures Market 119
11.1.1 Development of the Canadian Rapeseed Futures Market 119
11.1.2 Dealing in Futures Contracts of Rapeseed in Canada 119
Table 25 Instructions of Futures Contract of Canadian Rapeseed Futures Market 119
11.1.3 Analysis of the Changes of Prices of Canada Rapeseed Futures 121
Figure 97 Monthly Price Changes of Canadian Rapeseed Futures,1998-2007 121
11.2 Pan-European Stock Exchange Rapeseed Futures Market 121
11.2.1 Development of Rapeseed Futures Market at Pan-European Stock Exchange 121
11.2.2 Rapeseed Futures Contracts at Pan-European Stock Exchange 122
Table 26 Instructions of Contract of Canadian Rapeseed Futures 122
Table 27 Instructions of Contract of Canadian Rapeseed Oil Futures 123
11.3 Comparison of Dealing in Rapeseed Futures Contracts between China and other Countries 123
Table28 Comparison of China Rapeseed futures with overseas Rapeseed futures 124
12. Factors Affecting the Price of Rapeseed Oil 126
Figure 98 Influential Factors on Rapeseed Oil Price 127
12.1 Beginning Inventory of Rapeseed Oil and the Impact on Price 128
12.2 Impact on Price from Output of Rapeseed Oil 128
Figure 99 Comparison of Rapeseed Oil Output with Price in China, 1994/95-2006/07 128
12.2.1 Growing Area Affects the Output of Rapeseed 129
12.2.2 Impact of Climate Changes on the Yield of Rapeseed 129
Table29, Influence of Weather on Rapeseed Growth 130
12.3 Import and Export of Rapeseed Oil and the Impact on Domestic Price 130
Figure 100 Rapeseed Oil Price both at Home and Abroad, 1995/96-2006/07 131
12.4 Rapeseed Oil Consumption and its Influence on the Price 131
12.5 Ending Inventory of Rapeseed Oil and Its Influence on Price 131
Figure 101 Price & Stock of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1994/95-2006/07 132
12.6 Impact from Other Oil and Fat Goods on the Price of Rapeseed Oil 132
Figure 102 Comparison of Rapeseed Oil Price with Other Oil in China 132
12.7 Rapeseed Meal Price and its Influence on Rapeseed Oil 133
Figure 103 Price Comparison of Rapeseed Oil with Rapeseed Meal in China 133
13. Analysis of Price Trend of Rapeseed Oil in History 134
Figure 104 Trend of Spot Price of Rapeseed Oil in China, 1995-2007 135
14. Bio-diesel Development in the World 136
14.1 Bio-diesel in Different Countries 136
14.2 Analysis of Future Prospects 139
14.3 Impacts on the Oil and Fat Industry 139
Appendix 141
Appendix
1 Planting Areas of Rapeseed by Provinces in China, 1998-2006 141
2 Output of Rapeseed by Provinces in China, 1998-2006 141
3 Yield Per Acreage of Rapeseed by Provinces in China, 1998-2006 142
4 Import of Rapeseed by Countries in China, 1998-2006 143
5 Output of Rapeseed Oil by Provinces in China, 1997/98-2007/08 143
6 Import of Rapeseed Oil by Countries in China, 1998-2006 144
7 Top 100 of China’s Rapeseed Enterprises in 2007 144
8 Production Capacity and Output of Rapeseed Enterprises in Anhui (2007) 147
9 Daily Handling Capacity of Oilseed Enterprises in Jiangsu (2007) 148
10 Vegoil Consumption by Country in the World, 2003/04-2007/08 149
11 Output of Rapeseed by Countries in the World, 1999/00-2007/08 149
12 Consumption of Rapeseed Oil by Countries in the World, 1997/98-2005/06 150
13 Consumption of Rapeseed Oil by Countries in the World, 1997/98-2005/06 150
14 Import of Rapeseed Oil in Main Importing Countries, 1996/97-2005/06 150
15 Export of Rapeseed Oil in Main Exporting Countries, 1997/98-2005/06 151
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