Analysis and Forecast on China Vegoils & Oilseeds Industry (2016-2017)

In 2016, China’s vegetable oil industry showed the following main characteristics and changes: 1 Domestic oilseeds production continued to decline while import increased sharply, vegetable oil supply abundant. In 2016, the domestic output of oilseeds continued decline while oil and oilseeds imports increased largely, especially the soybean imports reached about 83 million tons. Meanwhile, the consumption needs of vegetable oil increased slowly and slightly, estimated around 31 million tons, but the supply volume more than 32 million tons. 2 Oilseeds crushing overcapacity and serious losses; Industry consolidation speed up, industry concentration ratio and scale both further improve. At the same time, small varieties of edible oil demand continue to increase, with the continuous injection of social funds, the small varieties of edible oils industry scale from planting to processing will have significantly increased in the next few years. 3 Both prices of protein and vegetable oil increased, made oilseeds crushing margin were relatively good. Overall, both prices of protein and oil continued went up, especially protein prices went up sharply from April. The soybean meal price reached 6,700 RMB yuan/ton in the end of November, almost flat with the price of May 2014; soybean meal price went up to 3,300 RMB yuan/ton, flat with the end of 2014, so the margin of soybean processing gradually increased from April and reached more than 200 RMB yuan/ton, rapeseed crushing margin up to 280 RMB yuan/ton in South China. 4 In the future, China vegetable oil processing industry will present the following trends: (1) Industry concentration ratio and scale both further improve. (2) Soybean and rapeseed crushing industry consolidation speed up, small varieties will become the new investment direction. (3) The single oilseed crushing has lower profits even losses seriously, deep processing, packaging, warehousing and logistics and so on will become the enterprise necessary competition ability. (4) The brand construction and marketing will be the key of enterprises’ future development and expansion. Based on detailed and accurate data, this report will analyze the changes of industry in 2016 and make the predications in 2017, from the angles of production, processing, consumption, trade, etc.

Part One: China Vegetable Oil & Oilseed Industry Policy and Analysis
1.1 Soybean Target Price Subsidy Policy Analysis
1.1.1 Soybean Target Price Subsidy Policy Implementation
1.1.2 Target Price Policy Impact on Soybean Production
1.2 Rapeseed Temporary Storage Policy Analysis
1.2.1 Major Producing Area Government Subsidies for Rapeseed Produce in 2016
1.2.2 Temporary Storage Rapeseed Oil May be Pooled Sold in 2017
1.3 Other Policies and Impact
Part Two: 2016 China Soybean Oil Supply-Demand Analysis & 2017 Forecast
2.1 China Soybean Production Restored Slightly in 2016
2.1.1 Estimate Soybean Planting Acreage Inclined to around 5.9 million ha
2.1.2 Estimate Soybean Output Increased to 10.5 million tons
2.1.3 Soybean Planting Margin was Low in Producing Area Due to Price went down
2.2 Soybean Import Continued Increased While Soybean Oil Import Shrink
2.2.1 Soybean Cast Went down Sharply, Import Volume Continued to Increase in 2016
2.2.2 Major Soybean Import Enterprise Analysis
2.2.3 Both Soybean Oil Import Volume and Price Went down in 2016
2.2.4 Major Soybean Oil Import Enterprise Analysis
2.3 Analysis on Soybean Crushing Industry
2.3.1 Soybean Crushing Capacity Growth Slowly down, and Focus on Structural Adjustment and Industrial Layout
2.3.2 Soybean Crushing Volume Up to 80 million tons, Soybean Oil Output More than 16 million tons
2.3.3 Soybean Crushing Capacity Distribution and Major Enterprise Analysis
2.4 Soybean Crushing Margin
2.4.1 Soybean Import Cast Went down Sharply
2.4.2 Driven by International and futures market, Soybean Oil Price Increased Significantly
2.4.3 Affected by International market, Soybean Meal Price Went up Sharply and Remained High for a Long Term
2.4.4 Soybean Crushing Margin was good Due to Its Products Price Went up Sharply
2.5 Soybean Oil Supply-Demand Analysis and Forecast in 2016/17
2.5.1 High rate of Company Crush Operate, Soybean Oil Output More than 16 million tons
2.5.2 Soybean Oil Consumption Increased and Market Share Enlarged
2.5.3 Soybean Stock Remain High Level, and Oil Supply Still Excess
2.6 Forecast of Soybean and Its Products Market in 2016/17
2.6.1 Forecast Soybean Production is Difficult to Significantly Restored in 2017
2.6.2 Estimate 2017 Soybean Oil Imports Growth Amplitude Shrink, Contain Soybean Imports Calculated as Oil
2.6.3 Soybean Crushing Industry Consolidation Speed up
2.6.4 2017 Soybean and Its Products Prices May Fall Sharply, Due to Abundant Supply and Slowly Increase of Consumption
2.6.5 Soybean and Oil Supply-Demand Balance
Part Three: 2016 China Rapeseed Oil Supply-Demand Analysis & 2017 Forecast
3.1 Rapeseed Planting Acreage and Production Declined Sharply
3.1.1 Estimated Rapeseed Acreage Decreased to 5.1 Million ha
3.1.2 Estimated Rapeseed Production Declined to 8.8 Million tons
3.1.3 The Purchase Price was Relatively high, but Rapeseed Planting Benefit still Deviation
3.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Imports
3.2.1 Both Rapeseed Import Volume and Price Went down in 2016
3.2.2 Major Rapeseed Import Enterprise Analysis
3.2.3 Both Rapeseed Oil Import Volume and Price Decreased
3.2.4 Major Rapeseed Oil Import Enterprise Analysis
3.3 Analysis on 2016 Rapeseed Crushing Industry  
3.3.1 South China Rapeseed Crushing Capacity Tends to Saturation due to New-built Capacity Gradually put into use
3.3.2 Rapeseed Crushing Volume Up to around 14.6 million tons, Rapeseed Oil Output more than 5.8 Million tons
3.3.3 Distribution of Rapeseed Crushing Capacity and Analysis on Main Enterprise Groups
3.4 2016 Rapeseed Crush Margins
3.4.1 Domestic Rapeseed Price went up Y-O-Y While Import Rapeseed Price Drop Slightly
3.4.2 Rapeseed Oil Prices Increased Due to Vegetable Oil Overall Went up
3.4.3 Rapeseed Meal Price Went up then down, the Average Price Higher than last Year
3.4.4 Rapeseed Crush Margin was Good, profitable Reached 600 RMB yuan/ton in June
3.5 Rapeseed Oil Supply-Demand Analysis and Forecast
3.5.1 High rate of Company Crush Operate, Rapeseed Oil Output More than 6 million tons
3.5.3 Rapeseed Consumption Increased Slowly, and has Strong Regional Characteristics
3.5.4 Other Vegetable Oil and Protein Meal Grab Rapeseed Products Market Share
3.6 Forecast of Rapeseed and Its Products Market in 2016/17
3.6.1 Forecast Rapeseed Production Continue to Shrink in 2017
3.6.2 Estimate 2017 Rapeseed Oil Imports Growth Due to Decrease of Domestic Production
3.6.3 South China Gradually Become the Main areas of Rapeseed Crushing, Major Producing Area Speed up Consolidation and Weed out
3.6.4 2017 Rapeseed and Its Products Prices Will Low
3.6.5 Rapeseed and Oil Supply-Demand Balance
Part Four: 2016 China Palm Oil Supply-Demand Analysis & 2017 Forecast
4.1 Palm Oil Imports
4.1.1 Estimated Palm Oil Import Slightly Increase to 4.6 Million tons
4.1.2 Palm Oil Import Prices Continued Fell
4.1.3 Main Import Products: BD and Stearin, Crude Palm Oil Imports Continued to Reduce
4.1.4 Major Palm Oil Import Enterprise
4.2 Analysis on Palm Oil Processing Industry and Major Processing Enterprise
4.2.1 Palm Oil Processing Loss Seriously, Made Some Small and Medium-sized Company to Exit
4.2.2 Analysis on Main Enterprise Groups
4.3 2016 Palm Oil Market Changes
4.3.1 Palm Oil Stocks Remained Low for a Long Time
4.3.2 Palm Oil Port Prices Increased sharply due to Bad Weather
4.4 2016/17 Palm Oil Supply-Demand and Market Forecast
4.4.1 Palm Oil Price will Fall in 2017
4.4.2 Domestic Demand not Strong, Palm Oil Imports Expected Still Under 5 Million Tons in 2017
4.4.3 Palm Oil Price will be Weak in 2017
Part Five: 2016 China Other Oil & Oilseed Industry Analysis & 2017 Forecast
5.1 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Peanut Oil Industry
5.1.1 Price Went Up Difficult to Offset the Increased of Planting Cost, Peanut Planting Acreage Decreased Slightly
5.1.2 Peanut Export Further Fell While Peanut Oil Import Continued to Increase
5.1.3 Both Prices of Peanut and Oil Rose and Remained High, but Crush Margins Drop
5.1.4 Peanut Crushing Capacity Concentration Further Improves, and Luhua Group Speed up the Layout and Expansion
5.1.5 Peanut Oil Demand is Relative good, Support Price Remained High
5.2 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Cottonseed Oil Industry
5.2.1 Cottonseed Supply Declined Due to Planting Area Shrink
5.2.2 Cottonseed and Its Products Prices Increased Due to Vegetable Oil and Protein Meal Prices Overall Went up
5.2.3 Tight Cottonseed and Oil Supply-Demand Situation
5.3 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Sunflower Oil Industry
5.3.1 Sunflower Planting Area and Production Both Increased Slightly
5.3.2 Sunflower Seeds Exports and Sunflower Oil Imports Both Increased Significantly
5.4 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Sesame Oil Industry
5.4.1 Sesame Production Continued to Decrease
5.4.2 Sesame Import Cast Drop and Import Volume Increased
Part Six: 2016 China’s Vegoil Supply-Demand Analysis & 2017 Forecast
6.1 Vegetable oil Aggregate Supply
6.1.1 Vegetable oil Converted from Domestic Oilseed Continued to Shrink
6.1.2 Vegetable oil Imports, Contain Converted from Imported Oilseeds Increased Sharply
6.1.3 Vegetable oil Supply Foreign Dependence would be Reached 75%
6.2 China’s Vegetable oil Consumption
6.2.1 Vegetable oil Consumption Increased Slowly
6.2.2 Vegetable oil Consumption Structure Has Changed Slightly, Small Varieties of Oil Demand Increased
6.3 2016/17 China’s Vegetable oil Market Forecast
6.3.1 Vegetable oil Import Continue to Increase, Mainly are the Oilseeds Import Increase
6.3.2 China Vegetable oil Consumption Tends to Saturation, Consumption Structure Continue to Adjust
6.3.3 China Vegetable oil Supply-Demand Analysis and Forecast
 
FIGURE CONTENTS
Figure 2-1, Changes in China Soybean Planting Acreage, 1979-2016
Figure 2-2, Changes in China Soybean Production, 1979-2016
Figure 2-3, Changes in China Soybean Planting Benefits, 1979-2016
Figure 2-4, Changes in Soybean Import Volume and Price, 2013-2016
Figure 2-5, China Soybean Import Volume by Original Country, 2000-2016
Figure 2-6, China Soybean Import Volume by Province, 2013-2016
Figure 2-7, Main Soybean Import Enterprises, 2014-2016
Figure 2-8, Changes in Soybean Oil Import Volume and Price, 2013-2016
Figure 2-9, China Soybean Crushing Capacity, 2000-2017
Figure 2-10, China Soybean Crushing Volume, 2000-2017
Figure 2-11, Main Enterprises Operating Conditions in 2016
Figure 2-12, Average Prices of Domestic and Ports Soybean, 2012-2016
Figure 2-13, Average Price of Soy Oil in Major Production and Purchasing Areas, 2012-2016
Figure 2-14, Average Price of Soy Meal in Major Production and Purchasing Areas, 2012-2016
Figure 2-15, Average Soybean Crushing Margin, 2014-2016
Figure 2-16, Changes in Soybean Oil Import (Contain Soybean Import Calculated as Oil), 2000-2016
Figure 3-1, Changes in China Rapeseed Planting Acreage, 1979-2016
Figure 3-2, Changes in China Rapeseed Production, 1979-2016
Figure 3-3, Changes in China Rapeseed Planting Benefits, 1979-2016
Figure 3-4, Changes in Rapeseed Import Volume and Price, 2013-2016
Figure 3-5, Changes in Rapeseed Import Volume, 1992-2016
Figure 3-6, Changes in Rapeseed Oil Import Volume and Price, 2013-2016
Figure 3-7, Changes in Rapeseed Oil Import Volume, 1992-2016
Figure 3-8, China Rapeseed Crushing Capacity, 2000-2017
Figure 3-9, China Rapeseed Crushing Volume, 2000-2017
Figure 3-10, Average Prices of Domestic and Ports Rapeseed, 2014-2016
Figure 3-11, Average Price of Rap-oil Produced from Imported Rapeseed, 2014-2016
Figure 3-12, Average Price of Rap-meal Produced from Imported Rapeseed, 2014-2016
Figure 3-13, Average Imported Rapeseed Crushing Margin in South Coastal Areas, 2014-2016
Figure 3-14, Changes in Rapeseed Oil Import (Contain Rapeseed Import Calculated as Oil), 2000-2016
Figure 4-1, Palm Oil Import by Original Country, 2000-2016
Figure 4-2, Palm Oil Import Price by Month, 2012-2016
Figure 4-3, Palm Oil Import Species Structure
Figure 4-4, Palm Oil Stocks at Main China Ports
Figure 4-5, Average Price of Palm Oil, 2012-2016
Figure 5-1, Changes in China Peanut Planting Acreage and Production, 1979-2016
Figure 5-2, Changes in Peanut Export Volume, 2000-2016
Figure 5-3, Changes in Peanut Oil Import Volume and Price, 2013-2016
Figure 5-4, Average Price of Peanut and Peanut Oil, 2012-2016
Figure 5-5, Changes in China Cottonseed Planting Acreage and Production, 1979-2016
Figure 5-6, Average Price of Cottonseed in Main Producing Areas, 2012-2016
Figure 5-7, Average Price of Cottonseed Oil in Main Producing Areas, 2012-2016
Figure 5-8, Changes in China Sunflower seed Planting Acreage and Production, 1979-2016
Figure 5-9, Changes in Sunflower seed Import and Export Volume, 2000-2016
Figure 5-10, Changes in Sunflower seed Oil Import Volume, 2000-2016
Figure 5-11, Changes in China Sesame Planting Acreage and Production, 1979-2016
Figure 5-12, Changes in Sesame Import and Export Volume, 2000-2016
Figure 5-13, Changes in Sesame Oil Import and Export Volume, 2000-2016
Figure 6-1, Changes in China Vegetable Production and Import Volume, 2000-2017
Figure 6-2, China Vegetable oil Consumption, 2000-2016
Figure 6-3, China Vegetable oil Consumption Structure in 2016
Map 1, Distribution of Soybean Crushing Enterprises in China
Map 2, Distribution of Rapeseed Crushing Enterprises in China
Map 3, Distribution of Vegetable Oil Enterprises in China
 
Table Contents
Table 1-1,Statistics of Temporary Storage Rapeseed Oil bidding Sale
Table 2-1, Major Soybean Import Enterprises in 2016
Table 2-2, Major Soybean Oil Import Enterprises in 2016
Table 2-3, Soybean Crushing Capacity of Major enterprises
Table 2-4, COFCO Soybean Crushing Capacity
Table 2-5, Yihai Kerry Group Soybean Crushing Capacity
Table 2-6, Jiusan Grain & Oil Industry Group Soybean Crushing Capacity
Table 2-7, Sinograin Corporation Soybean Crushing Capacity
Table 2-8, Shandong Bohi Corporation Soybean Crushing Capacity
Table 2-9, Chinatex Corporation Soybean Crushing Capacity
Table 2-10, Herun Group Soybean Crushing Capacity
Table 2-11, China Soybean Supply and Demand by Month
Table 2-12, China Soybean Oil Supply and Demand, 2011/12~2016/17
Table 3-1, Major Rapeseed Import Enterprises in 2016
Table 3-2, Rapeseed Crushing Capacity of Major Enterprises
Table 3-3, COFCO Rapeseed Crushing Capacity
Table 3-4, Yihai Kerry Group Rapeseed Crushing Capacity
Table 3-5, Chinatex Corporation Rapeseed Crushing Capacity
Table 3-6, China Rapeseed Supply and Demand, 2011/12~2016/17
Table 3-7, China Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand, 2011/12~2016/17
Table 4-1, Major Palm Oil Import Enterprises in 2016
Table 4-2, Palm Oil Processing Capacity of Major Enterprises
Table 4-3, Julong Group Palm Oil Processing Capacity
Table 4-4, Yihai Kerry Group Palm Oil Processing Capacity
Attached Table 1, China Soybean Planting Acreage and Production
Attached Table 2, China Rapeseed Planting Acreage and Production