Analysis and Forecast on China Sugar Industry (2016-2017)

By CnAgri 2017-03-16 17:30:31 Print Tel:861064403086 Email: [email protected]

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Brief Introduction:

After four campaigns of oversupply in a row, the global sugar market saw insufficient supply in 2015/16. The shortage is predicted to be 5.20 million tons, the insufficiency shall be larger than 5 million tons in the new campaign. Affected by this, the international raw sugar price quickly bounced after hitting a historical low. The average futures price for No. 11 raw milk in New York hit 23.07 US cents/pound by October 2016, up 63% year on year. At the domestic market, there is a serious shrinkage of the acreage of sugar crops due to the continual slip of sugar price and falling profit from farming during the previous two campaigns. The national sugar production stood at 8.702 million tons in 2015/16 campaign, the lowest level in the past decade. However sugar consumption has been growing steadily and it is predicted to be about 15 million tons, the shortage of supply is over 6 million tons, dependence on import could be normal. Since the Government included sugar into the Import Automatic Permission Management, the industry is more disciplined. 2015/16 campaign witnessed 3.728 million tons sugar import, 1.084 million tons less than in 2014/15. However the strict control over sugar import resulted to rampant smuggling across the boarder. The smuggled amount should be 2 million tons during the campaign. The Ministry of Commerce carried out an investigation into the sugar import guarantee measures in September 2016 and this shall last for six months. Domestic sugar price rose steadily during the campaign. The wholesale price index rose from 5300 yuan/ton in the beginning of the year to 6650 yuan/ton in the end of October, up 25.5%. The weighted average selling price for sugar of some producers in certain consuming regions was 5609 yuan/ton, the industry turned losses into gains. In order to ease supply and stabilize sugar price, there was the first auction of the national sugar reserve after five years. The first batch of listed amount was 200,000 tons and the bidding price was about 6900 yuan/ton. Both the domestic and foreign sugar industry went through numerous changes in 2016, which have profound impacts on the market in the future. So in 2016/17 campaign: (1) What shall be the sugar supply and demand situation at the international market and what shall be the price trend? (2) How shall be China’s policy on the sugar industry? (3) Will the reduction of sugar crop harvest be reversed in the new campaign? (4) Will sugar import continue to grow in the new campaign? (5) What are the effects of the release of the national sugar reserve? (6) How is sugar consumption in China? (7) How shall starch sugar replace sugar? (8) How shall the competition pattern of the domestic sugar industry evolve? Centering on these issues, starting from the current overall status of the domestic policy, crop growing, processing, consumption and trade and combining the international sugar supply and demand status, there is systematic analysis and combing, and there is summery and prediction on the trend of domestic sugar market. This Report is a reference for decision makers that pay attention to China’s sugar industry.

Table of Contents:

Chapter I The General Situation of Global Market for Sugar
1.1 Overview of Global Sugar Manufacturing Industry
1.2 Analysis of Global Sugar Production and Demand
1.2.1 Global Sugar Production Analysis and Forcast
1.3 Analysis of Consumption of Global Sugar
1.4 Sugar Supply and Demand of Key Producing Countries and Forecast
1.4.1 Brazil
1.4.2 India
1.4.3 USA
1.4.4 European Union
1.4.5 Thailand
1.4.6 Russian
1.5 Global Price Trend and Forecast
Chapter II Analysis of Policy Environment of China’s Sugar Industry
2.1 Development Plan of China’s Sugar Industry
2.1.1 Production and Development Plan on Sugar Cane Growing Regions (2015-2020)
2.1.2 Special Plan for the 5 Million Mu “Four-goal” Sugar Cane Growing Land Rectification Project in Guangxi
2.1.3 Protection Zones for Sugar Crops
2.2 Analysis of Sugar Purchasing and Storage Policy of China’s Sugar Industry
2.3 Analysis of China’s Sugar Materials Purchasing and Pricing Policies
2.4 China’s Trading Polices on Sugar Import & Export
2.4.1 Sugar Import Quota Policy to Continue
2.4.2 Sugar Included into Automatic Import Approval Management
2.4.3 Ministry of Commerce “On Investigation over Protection Measures for Sugar Import”
2.5 Forecast on Policy Change
2.5.1 Targeted Sugar Price Management
2.5.2 Sugar Import Management
2.5.3 Threshold of Sugar Manufacturing Industry
Chapter III General Situation of China’s Sugar Manufacturing Industry
3.1 Industrial Scale
3.2 Revenue from Core Business Sector
3.3 Cost and Profit of Core Business Sector
3.4 Number of Companies Running in Red and Total Loss
Chapter IV Analysis and Forecast of China’s Sugar Crops Production
4.1 Sugarcane Production in China
4.1.1 Sugarcane Planting Area and Yield in China
4.1.2 Distribution of China’s Sugarcane Planting Regions
4.1.3 Sugarcane Planting Varieties in China
4.1.4 Mechanized Planting and Harvesting of Canes in China
4.1.5 Sugarcane Purchasing Price in Main Producing Province
4.1.6 Planting Cost and Benefit from Canes
4.1.7 Cane Farming Trend in China
4.2 Sugar Beet Production in China
4.2.1 Sugar Beet Planting Area and Yield in China
4.2.2 Distribution of China’s Sugar Beet Planting Regions
4.2.3 Sugar Beet Planting Varieties in China
4.2.4 Mechanized Planting and Harvesting of Sugar Beet in China
4.2.5 Sugar Beet Purchasing Price in Main Producing Province
4.2.6 Planting Cost and Benefit from Sugar Beet
4.2.7 Sugar Beet Farming Trend in China
Chapter V Analysis and Forecast of China’s Sugar Production
5.1 China’s Sugar Output
5.1.1 China’s Sugar Total Output and Trend
5.1.2 China’s Sugar Output and Trend by Province
5.2 Distribution and Production Capacity of China’s
5.2.1 Quantity of China’s Grinding Sugar Mills
5.2.2 Daily Grinding Capability of China’s Grinding Sugar Mills
5.3 Other Production Technological and Economic Indicators of China’s Grinding Sugar Mills
5.3.1 China’s Sugar Product Cost
5.3.2 China’s Mixed Sugar Production Ratio by Province
5.4 Raw Sugar Processing Capacity and Layout in China
Chapter VI Analysis and Forecast of China’s Sugar Consumption
6.1 Analysis on China’s Total Sugar Consumption and Prospect
6.1.1 China’s Total Sugar Consumption and Forecast
6.1.2 China’s Sugar Consumption Per Capita
6.2 Analysis on China Food Industry Sugar Consumption
6.3 Sugar Consumption of Chinese Residents
Chapter VII Analysis and Forecast of China’s Sugar Trade
7.1 China’s Sugar Imports
7.1.1 China’s Sugar Imports and Trend
7.1.2 China’s Granulated Sugar Imports by Country
7.1.3 China’s Raw Sugar Imports by Country
7.2 China’s Sugar Imports by Enterprise
7.2.1 China’s Granulated Sugar Imports by Enterprise
7.2.2 China’s Raw Sugar Imports by Enterprise
7.3 China’s Sugar Imports by Port
7.4 China’s Sugar Imports by Province
7.5 China’s Sugar Exports
7.5.1 China’s Sugar Exports and Trend
7.5.2 China’s Raw Sugar Exports by Country
7.5.3 China’s Granulated Sugar Exports by Country
7.6 Analysis and Prediction of China’s Net Import of Sugar
7.6.1 Changes in Net Imports of Sugar
7.6.2 China’s Sugar Imports to Reduce
Chapter VIII Analysis and Forecast of the Production, Consumption of China’s Sugar Substitutes
8.1 Analysis on China’s Starch Sugar Output and Trend
8.1.1 China’s Starch Sugar Output
8.1.2 China’s Starch Sugar Consumption and Prospect
8.2 Analysis on China’s Saccharin Production and Consumption
8.3 Impact of Sugar Substitutes on the Sugar Industry
8.3.1 Starch Sugar
8.3.2 Saccharin
8.3.3 Other Main sugar substitute
Chapter IX Analysis and Forecast of Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Chapter X Analysis and Forecast of Sugar Price
10.1 China’s Domestic Sugar Price
10.1.1 Price Index of Sugar Wholesale Markets in China
10.1.2 The Wholesale Price of White Granulated Sugar of China’s Major Producing Areas
10.1.3 The Wholesale Price of White Granulated Sugar of China’s Major Selling Areas
10.1.4 China’s Imported Sugar CIF
10.1.5 China’s Imported Raw Sugar CIF
10.2 International Sugar Price
10.2.1 Futures Prices of New York No. 11 Raw Sugar in Recent Months
10.2.2 Comparison of Domestic Sugar Price and Imported Sugar Price
10.3 Factors Affecting Sugar Price Trend in China
Chapter XI China’s Major Sugar Enterprise (Groups)
11.1 Bright Food (Group)
11.1.1 Business Movement
11.1.2 Industrial Distribution
11.2 COFCO Tunhe
11.2.1 Business Movement
11.2.2 Industrial Distribution
11.3 Guangxi Nanhua Sugar Industry Group
11.3.1 Business Movement
11.3.2 Industrial Distribution
11.4 Guangxi Nanning Dongya Sugar Industry Group
11.4.1 Business Movement
11.4.2 Industrial Distribution
11.5 Guangxi Donta Group
11.5.1 Business Movement
11.5.2 Industrial Distribution
11.6 Guangxi State Farms Sugar Industrial Group
11.6.1 Business Movement
11.6.2 Industrial Distribution
11.7 Nanning Sugar Industry Co. Ltd.
11.7.1 Business Movement
11.7.2 Industrial Distribution
11.8 Guangxi Guitang Group
11.8.1 Business Movement
11.8.2 Industrial Distribution
11.9 Guangdong Hengfu Sugar Industry Group
11.9.1 Business Movement
11.9.2 Industrial Distribution
 
List of Figures
Figure 1.1, Global Sugar Output and Growth Rate, 2004/05-2016/17
Figure 1.2, Top 10 Largest Sugar Producing Countries (Regions)
Figure 1.3, Sugar Output of Main Producing Countries and Proportion in the Global Output, 2015/16
Figure 1.4, New York No.11 Sugar Futures Prices in Recent Month, 2004-2016
Figure 2.1, The state reserve sugar auction bid price and quantity
Figure 3.1, Number of China’s Sugar Producers, 2000-2016
Figure 3.2, Revenues from Core Business of China’s Sugar Producing Sector, 2000-2016
Figure 3.3, Cost and Profit Rate of Core Business of China’s Sugar Producing Sector, 2000-2016
Figure 3.4, Proportion of Companies Running in the Red and Total Loss, 2000-2016
Figure 4.1, Sugarcane Planting Area and Yield in China, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.2, Sugarcane Planting Area by Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.3, Sugarcane Output by Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.4, Sugarcane Per Unit Yield by Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.5, Planting Proportion of Main Sugarcane Varieties
Figure 4.6, Sugarcane Purchasing Price in Main Producing Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.7, Planting Cost and Benefit from Canes, 2005-2017
Figure 4.8, Sugar Beet Planting Area and Yield in China, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.9, Sugar Beet Planting Area by Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.10, Sugar Beet Output by Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.11, Sugar Beet Per Unit Yield by Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.12, Planting Proportion of Main Sugar beet Varieties
Figure 4.13, Sugar Beet Purchasing Price in Main Producing Province, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 4.14, China’s Sugar Beet Planting Cost and Benefit, 2005-2017
Figure 5.1, China’s Sugar Output, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 5.2, Cane Sugar Output by Province and Proportion
Figure 5.3, Beet Sugar Output by Province and Proportion
Figure 6.1, China Sugar Consumption, 2004/05-2016/17
Figure 6.2, Sugar Consumption Per Capita in China, 2005/06-2016/17
Figure 6.3, Proportion of Industrial Consumption of Sugar
Figure 7.1, Changes in China’s Sugar Imports
Figure 7.2, Proportion of Sugar Import Varieties, 2016
Figure 7.3, Quantity of China’s White Granulated Sugar Imports, 2005-2016
Figure 7.4, Proportion of China’s White Granulated Sugar Imports by Country, 2016
Figure 7.5, Quantity of China’s Raw Sugar Imports, 2005-2016
Figure 7.6, Proportion of China’s Raw Sugar Imports by Country, 2016
Figure 7.7, China’s Granulated Sugar Imports by Enterprise, 2016
Figure 7.8, China’s Raw Sugar Imports by Enterprise, 2016
Figure 7.9, Raw Sugar Imports by Customs in China, 2016
Figure 7.10, Granulated Sugar Imports by Customs in China, 2016
Figure 7.11, Raw Sugar Imports by Province in China, 2016
Figure 7.12, Granulated Sugar Imports by Province in China, 2016
Figure 7.13, Changes in China’s Sugar Exports
Figure 7.14, Proportion of China’s Granulated Sugar Imports by Country, 2016
Figure 7.15, Changes in Net Imports of Sugar, 2005-2017
Figure 8.1, China’s Starch Sugar Output and Consumption, 2005-2017
Figure 8.2, Proportion of Production of Different Varieties of Starch Sugar in 2016
Figure 8.3, Changes of High Fructose Syrup Production and Consumption , 2011-2016
Figure 8.4, China’s Saccharin Output and Domestic Sales, 2005-2017
Figure 10.1, China’s Sugar wholesale price index
Figure 10.2, Nanning Wholesale Price of White Granulated Sugar, 2000-2016
Figure 10.3, Wholesale Price of White Granulated Sugar of China’s Major Selling Areas, 2000-2016
Figure 10.4, China’s Granulated Sugar CIF Price by Month, 2006-2016
Figure 10.5, China’s Raw Sugar CIF Price by Month, 2006-2016
Figure 10.6, Futures Prices of New York No. 11 Raw Sugar in Recent Months, 2000-2016
Figure 10.7, White Sugar Prices, Domestic vs. ICE
Figure 10.8, Price Gap between Domestic Made Granulated Sugar and Processed Product from Imported Raw Sugar within Quota
Figure 11.1, Expansion of Bright Food (Group) Sugar Sector
 
List of Tables
Table 1.1, Annual Per Capita Consumption of Sugar in Some Countries (Regions), 2015/16
Table 1.2, Global Sugar Supply and Demand Balance, 2011/12-2016/17
Table 1.3, Brazil Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Table 1.4, India Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Table 1.5, USA Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Table 1.6, European Union Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Table 1.7, Thailand Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Table 1.8, Russian Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Table 5.1, Quantity of China’s Grinding Sugar Mills in 2015/16 Campaign
Table 5.2, Daily Grinding Capability of China’s Grinding Sugar Mills in 2015/16 Campaign
Table 5.3, Sugar Yield Rate in Main Sugarcane Growing Provinces, 2005/06-16/17
Table 5.4, Sugar Yield Rate in Main Sugar Beet Growing Provinces, 2005/06-16/17
Table 5.5, Raw Sugar Processing Capacity and Layout in China
Table 7.1, Raw SugarExports by Country, 2005-2016
Table 8.1, Top 10 Largest Starch Sugar Producers in China
Table 8.2, China’s Saccharin Production and Consumption, 2006-2017
Table 9.1, Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
Table 11.1, Bright Food Group’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Table 11.2, COFCO Tunhe’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Table 11.3, Yangpu Nanhua Sugar Industry Group’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Table 11.4, Dongya Sugar Industry Group’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Table 11.5, Guangxi Donta Group’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Table 11.6, Guangxi State Farms Sugar Industrial Group’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Table 11.7, Nanning Sugar Industry’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Table 11.9, Guangdong Hengfu Sugar Industry Group’s Sugar Producing Subsidiaries
Attached Table 1, Sugarcane Planting Area and Output in China, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 2, Sugarcane Planting Area in China by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 3, Sugarcane Output in China by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 4, Sugarcane Per Unit Yield by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 5, Sugar Beet Planting Area and Output in China, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 6, Sugarcane Purchasing Price in Main Producing Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 7, Sugarbeet Planting Area in China by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 8, Sugarbeet Output in China by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 9, Sugarbeet Per Unit Yield by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 10, Sugarbeet Purchasing Price in Main Producing Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 11, China’s Sugar Output, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 12, Sugarcane Output in China by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 13, Sugar Beet Output in China by Province, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 14, Sugar Consumption of China, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 15, Sugar Consumption Per Capita in China, 2006/07-2016/17
Attached Table 16, Industrial Consumption of Sugar, 2008-2016
Attached Table 17, Sugar Consumption of Chinese Residents, 2005-2016
Attached Table 18, China’s Sugar Imports, 2006-2017
Attached Table 19, White Granulated Sugar Imports by Country, 2006-2016
Attached Table 20, Raw Sugar Imports by Country, 2006-2016
Attached Table 21, Import of Main Granulated Sugar Importing Companies in 2016
Attached Table 22, Import of Main Raw Sugar Importing Companies in 2016
Attached Table 23, Raw Sugar Imports by Customs in 2016
Attached Table 24, Granulated Sugar Imports by Customs in 2016
Attached Table 25, Raw Sugar Imports by Province in 2016
Attached Table 26, Granulated Sugar Imports by Province in 2016
Attached Table 27, China’s Sugar Exports, 2006-2017
Attached Table 28, China’s Granulated Sugar Exports by Country, 2006-2016
Attached Table 29, China’s Starch Sugar Output and Consumption, 2006-2017
Attached Table 30, Nanning Wholesale Price of White Granulated Sugar, 2006-2016
Attached Table 31, Wholesale Price of White Granulated Sugar of China’s Major Selling Areas, 2006-2016
Attached Table 32, China’s Granulated Sugar CIF Price by Month, 2006-2016
Attached Table 33, China’s Raw Sugar CIF Price by Month, 2006-2016
Attached Table 34, Futures Prices of New York No. 11 Raw Sugar in Recent Months, 2006-2016
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