Big soybean imports, soymeal price to stay at low level

In May, China's soybean imports reached 9.38 million tons, the highest level of the year, including 8.86 million tons from Brazil, the second highest level on record (the all-time high was 9.12 million tons in May 2018). The sharp increase in soybean imports was mainly due to the centralized customs clearance of cargoes delayed by bad weather, as well as the depreciation of the Brazilian currency and increased willingness to export. 
 
According to purchase order estimates, the average monthly arrival of soybeans at ports from June to August could exceed 10 million tons. Currently, soybean stocks at ports are over 7 million tons. At the same time, demand from domestic animal husbandry industry grew slowly, and domestic soybean meal prices continued to fall sharply in June, with the average price falling to 2,763 yuan/ton. According to the forecast of terminal supply and demand, soymeal price in the later period still has a large space to fall. 
 
However, China's General Administration of Customs ask all the local customs to conduct virus tests on part of imported goods from high-risk countries and regions. The United States, Brazil and Argentina, as the main source of imported soybean, are in serious epidemic development. Some Chinese soybean importers and local customs authorities have even began to request the US soybean exporters to guarantee the goods not carrying coronavirus. In addition, the possible impact of the development of the epidemic in these countries and regions on the goods is also unknown, which brings great uncertainty to the normal arrival of soybeans in the later stage and plays a crucial role in the price trend of soymeal.