Grain Consumption in June in China

By CnAgri2012-07-30 12:55:45 Print

Grain consumption for industrial uses was 6.073 million MT in June, 0.99% less than the month before but 1.95% more than the same period of last year. grain consumption for industrial uses totaled 37.24 million MT in January ~ June, an increase of 2.8% on the year-on-year basis.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 16.068 million MT grains were consumed in June for the production of 21.26 million MT feed, up 1.81% and 1.48% respectively on the year-on-year basis. 82 million MT grains were consumed in January ~ June for the production of 109.6 million MT feed, up 7.65% and 5.34% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

Distilled spirit and fermentation alcohol production by medium and large mills registered 5.596 million kiloliters and 4.336 million kiloliters in January ~ June, up 19.6% and 3.75% respectively on the year-on-year basis. 3.692 million MT grains were consumed in June for alcohol production, 1.25% more than the month before and 0.96% more than the same period of last year. 21.192 million MT grains were consumed in January ~ June for alcohol production, an increase of 3.28% on the year-on-year basis.

2.38 million MT grains were consumed in June for the production of 1.6 million MT starch.

Starch price was RMB3,049/MT in June, down 1.88% from the month before and down 2.92% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for currency value change, starch price dropped 0.56% in June from the month before but rose 9.6% on the year-on-year basis.

Ethanol price was RMB6,520/MT in June, down 4.50% from the month before and down 7.34% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for price, ethanol price rose 3.18% in June over the month before and 5.22% on the year-on-year basis.

Corn price was RMB2,426/MT in June, up 0.13% over the month before and up 8% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for price, corn price rose 20.56% in June on the year-on-year basis.

Starch and ethanol production generated a gross profit of RMB182/MT and RMB113/MT respectively in June, suggesting a gross profit ratio of 7.16% and 2.46% respectively.

Grain consumption for various uses was estimated to be 49.828 million MT in June, up 4.79% on the year-on-year basis. Exports included, grain consumption was 49.87 million MT in June, up 4.82% on the year-on-year basis.

Grain inventory was 296 million MT at the end of June, suggesting a stock/consumption ratio of 5.94, exceeding the same period of last year by 5.527 million MT and 0.27 respectively.

Grain inventory consisted of 88.962 million MT paddy, 56.703 million MT corn, 142 million MT wheat, 2.505 million MT barley and 5.337 million MT others. In terms of ownership, 113.26 million MT grains were on-farm stock, 95.79 million MT state reserve and 79.26 million MT commercial stock.

In the 2011/2012 crop year, grain consumption is estimated to be 562.1 million MT, including 289 million MT for food use, 71.53 million MT for industrial uses and 166.8 million MT for feed production. Year-end grain inventory is estimated to be 227 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 40.51%.

In the 2012/2013 crop year, grain consumption is predicted to be 567 million MT, including 284 million MT for food use, 75.99 million MT for industrial uses and 172.6 million MT for feed production.

Grain production and imports are estimated to be 571.5 million MT and 10 million MT respectively in 2012. Taking advantage of low grain price in the international market, China imported 8.067 million MT grains in the first half of this year. In view of the rising grain price in the international market in the second half of this year, China may reduce grain imports in this period.

Grain imports and exports are predicted to be 4.82 million MT and 1.86 million MT respectively in 2012/2013. Year-end grain inventory is predicted to be 235 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 41.54%.。

From "China Grains Market Weekly Report"