China Grain Production Over 600 Million MT in 2013

By CnAgri2013-12-12 09:16:10 Print

On Nov. 29th, according to National Bureau of Statistics, China grain production registered 601.94 million MT in 2013, increasing 2.1% by 12.36 million MT from 2012. The increase of summer grain, early rice and fall grain registered 1.96 million MT, 0.78 million MT and 9.62 million MT respectively. It is the first time national grain production exceeds 600 million MT with production increase for consecutive 10 years. Grain planting acreage reached 111.951 million hectares, increasing 0.67% by 747 thousand hectares from 2012, higher than BOABC’s expectation of 0.37%. Meanwhile, farmers actively adjusted planting structure, reducing planting of soybean and spring wheat and increasing planting of corn by 1093 thousand hectares, which laid good foundation for grain production increase. Due to planting acreage increase, grain production increased 3.96 million MT with contribution rate of 32%. The production is higher than 593.653 million MT expected by BOABC in last report but lower than 604.377 million expected by BOABC in early 2013. The estimate difference lies in summer wheat production.

In view of grain production increase for 10 years in a row, Ma Wenfeng, contributing analyst of Xinhua News Agency, thinks there are some worrisome things of the increase.

1. Grain production increase influenced harmony between human beings and soil. China agricultural crops’ planting acreage increased from 155 million hectares in 2005 to 163 million hectares in 2012, with annual growth rate of 0.62%. The multiple cropping index of agricultural crops increased from 127.7% to 134.3% and of grain crops from 85.6% to 90.87%. Proportion of grain crops in agricultural crops raised from 67.1% to 68.1% in 2012, the highest in 2010 of 68.4%. The continuous rising of multiple cropping index showed increasing of farming intensity.

For different regions, the multiple cropping index surpassed 150% in 16 provinces and regions in 2012 and surpassed 170% in Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Fujian registering 224.6%, 195.4%, 179.9%, 173.2% and 170.1% respectively. In annual harvest areas in NE, the multiple cropping index registered 103.4%, 103.1% and 100.1% respectively in Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia in 2012 and is expected to be 104%, 105.8% and 101.2% in 2013. Clearly these regions are over-cultivated, the ecological damage brought by which should be highly noted.

2. The production increase owes to planting structure swift, which causes supply of non-staple grain deficient. As for the planting acreage in 2005-2012, agricultural crop increased 5.10% and grain crop 6.64%. Planting acreage of cereal increased 13.12. The growth rate registered 4.5%, 6.5%, 32.9% and -25.2% respectively for paddy, wheat, corn and soybean. Planting acreage of corse grain declined 18.0%. Planting acreages of soybean and other corse grains brought increase of staple grains, imbalance of corse grain supply and demand, gap increase of brewing grains like barley and kaoliang and imports increase.

3. Compared with world advanced level, domestic grain unit yield is far less, vital factor of restraining grain safety. Unit yield of wheat and rice is higher than world average level, but still has great difference with international advanced level. In 2012, China wheat unit yield was 4987kg/hectare, far lower than 7780kg/hectare in Germany and 7291kg/hectare in French. Rice unit yield, 6777kg/hectare, still far lower than 7780kg/hectare in Japan and 12343kg/hectare in USA. In spite of many years’ research on super rice, the gap between China rice unit and USA continued widening seriously. In 2012, China corn unit yield was 5870kg/hectare, lower than 9343kg/hectare in French and 8592kg/hectare in USA. Suffering a serious drought in 2012, America corn unit yield declined 30%, still far higher than China. In 2013, America corn unit yield registers 11168kg/hectare, but China 6002kg/hectare. In 2012, China soybean unit yield registered 1809kg/hectare, far lower than 2821kg/hectare in Canada and 2772kg/hectare in Brazil. America soybean unit yield still registered 2665kg/hectare in 2012 with the serious drought.

4. Poor planting income seriously influences China grain safety. Influenced by rapid growth of labor cost and soil cost and the small scale of grain planting, farmers’ planting income is seriously low. Corn profit margin, highest among 3 major grain crops,  registered 21.39% in 2012 and unit net profit registered 2719yuan/hectare. Considering labor input and planting profit, farmers’ income can reach average level at least owning 0.93 hectares land. In 2013, the profit margin declined to 12.11% and farmers should at least own 1.16 hectares land to catch up with the average level. As for USA, the profit margin in 2012 registered 25.44% and unit net profit, 2535yuan/hectare. In view of farmland acreage difference between China and USA, China agricultural production income is seriously low, which restricts China’s ability of guaranteeing grain safety.