Fetilizer Price Trends on Dec.9-16

By CnAgri2013-12-17 09:51:53 Print Urea: urea had price but no market this week. Winter storage is not likely to start widely in short terms. Nevertheless, urea market may increase slightly next year driven by loosen export tariff policy, tight railway transportation and international market. (Figure 1) 

ABC: ABC market remained stable with basically unchanged retail price. (Figure 2)
　
DAP:  many deals were made in recent and deliveries of previous orders are urged, but railway transportation is not smooth in year-end, based on which manufacturers announce that the supply is tight.  But demand from terminal market is still weak and arrivals basically centralize in large traders. In overall, DAP market is well supported by raw materials prices increase and decline of export tariff next year and its price is more likely to increase in the long run. But traders’ scrupulosity developed in the long-term gloomy market cannot be changed immediately, so DAP market shall remain stable in short terms. (Figure 3)

NPK: with winter storage starts and raw materials prices increase, many dealers begin purchasing with no more waiting. Operating rate of NPK manufacturers is improved and many large plants even produce with full capacity. Some manufacturers raise quotation mostly by RMB50-70/MT  or highly to RMB100/MT. Those manufacturers are either those whose quotation was low before or those who have many new orders to increase profit by raising quotation. But quotation from most manufacturers still remain stable and the trend shall be kept in short terms. (Figure 4)

MOP: favorable factors increased in domestic MOP market recently, such as loosen export tariff and inadequate supply. NPK manufacturers resumed production gradually in downstream, which increased demand. In international market, Russian Uralkali Group is likely to reconcile with Belaruskali after stock restructure. Canadian Potash Group lay off staff and reduce production, which to some extent supports international MOP market. Under such conditions, domestic MOP price continues going steady and price for new arrival may see slight increase. (Figure 5)

SOP: SOP supply will continue be tight until Spring Festival but price shall see no great increase. Potential risk hidden behind the high price and new supply shall restrain SOP price from increasing. (Figure 6) 




From “China Fertilizer Market Weekly Report”