Analysis on Supply & Demand and Security Coefficient of China’s Corn

By CnAgri2018-06-08 10:26:57 Print In 2017, the total sown area of corn in China was 34.5 million hectares, the lowest level in the past 6 years; the yield was 5,967 kg/ha; the total production was 206 million tons, down 5.84% from the previous year, and was the lowest level since 2011. As for imports, cumulative net imports from August 2017 to April 2018 totaled 2.114 million tons, an increase of 2.9 times year-on-year, and the total imports for the year were 3.763 million tons.
In April, the consumption of corn was 19.124 million tons, the month-end stock was 113 million tons, the security coefficient was 5.93, and the monthly price was RMB1860/ton, which was obviously higher than the import cost of RMB1576 /ton.
In the crop year of 2017/18, the total consumption was 242 million tons, the ending stock  fell to 57.76 million tons, the security coefficient dropped to 23.90%, the annual price reached RMB1864/ton, and the import cost was RMB1546/ton.
In the crop year of 2018/19, domestic corn production will rebound, import volume will increase, the consumption of corn for feed will decline further, industrial consumption will continue to increase, and corn prices will rise continuously. Total domestic consumption will drop to 234 million tons, ending stock will fall to 39.66 million tons, and the security coefficient will decrease to 16.93%. The overall price will be higher than RMB2,200 /ton, and import costs also will increase to more than RMB1,700 /ton.