1. China Grain Production Estimate by BOABC in 2013(2014.6)

By CnAgri2014-06-16 10:11:18 Print According to BOABC’ monitoring, grain comprehensive price index increased slightly in May and fertilizer price continued declining. Deducting currency value, farmers’ cash income is expected to go stable deducting labor cost, promoting grain production in New Year.
 
In Jan. 2014, grain comprehensive price index increased to RMB2593/MT by 2.91% YOY and down 0.25% MOM, up 0.22% MOM but down 0.40% YOY deducting value change of RMB.
In addition, fertilizer price declined 8.37% on year-on-year basis in May. 2014. Specifically, price for ABC, urea,  potassium chloride, NPK, calcium phosphate and diesel oil declined 4.98%, 14.55%, 9.89%, 9.47%, 2,96% and increased 3.94% respectively. Price decline of fertilizer is helpful to control grain production costs, which to some extent offset bad influences of rapid growth of labor cost on grain production, favorable for stability of China economy.
 
For different varieties: wheat monthly wholesale price and average price in May 2014 was RMB2478/MT, up 1.92% and 2.11% on year-on-year basis respectively. Price for new wheat saw decline influenced by price decline of agricultural resources and not start of protective procurement price.
 
Rice monthly wholesale price in May and average price in June 2013-June. 2014 was RMB2833/MT and RMB2792/MT respectively, up 4.55% and 2.25% on year-on-year basis respectively. Price increase is favorable for increase of rice planting areas.
Corn monthly wholesale price in May and average price in Aug.2013-May.2014 was RMB2397/MT and RMB2366/MT respectively, down 1.86% and down 1.93% on year-on-year basis respectively. Corn price saw decline, which would influence corn planting areas.
For other grains, barley monthly wholesale price in Maywas RMB2094/MT and RMB1922/MT respectively, up 3.82% on year-on-year basis and up 1.36 MOM respectively. Domestic barley price continued increasing, a proof of production decline in 2014.
 
Grain price increased and fertilizer price declined, which was good to increase of planting profit. Though influenced by labor cost, farmers’ cash income shall continue increasing. Farmers in major agricultural production areas shall keep promoting grain production. Grain planting acreage and production is predicted to be 113 million hectares and 616 million MT in 2014, up 1.00% and 2.59% respectively on year-on-year basis. Grain production is expected to increase for 11 consecutive years.
 
In 2013, though grain production cost/profit ratio declined significantly, the cash income kept high. As cotton planting saw negative profit, more cotton planting will be replaced by grain planting in eastern areas, promoting planting acreage increase in major producing areas. Grain planting acreage is likely to shrink in NE due to the difficulty in selling fall grains.
 
According to BOABC’ monitoring, winter wheat planting acreage shall increase to 24.342 million hectares in 2014, up 0.69% from last year. The unit yield increases by 3.29% to 5131kg/hectare and total production reaches 125 million MT, up 4.18% from last year. Winter wheat planting acreage sees growth of 0.66% to 22.686 million hectares. Total production is estimated to be 118.3 million MT and unit yield 5215kg/hectare, up 4.33% and 3.65% respectively. As for spring wheat, planting acreage sees slight growth to 1.666 million hectares, up 1.76% from last year. Total production is estimated to be 6.813 million MT and unit yield 4089kg/hectare, up 1.66% and down 0.10% respectively.
 
Quality wheat planting acreage is predicted to soar to 85.594 million MT, up 21.85% from 2013/14. Recover of quality wheat’ planting acreage shall to a large extent restrain wheat import. Corn production: Corn planting acreage is estimated to be 36.711 million hectares in 2014, up 0.31% from 2013, lowest growth rate in recent 5 years. Total production is projected at 220 million MT and unit yield is 6002Kg/Hectare, up 2.60% and 2.28% respectively YOY.
 
In 2014, paddy planting acreage, unit yield and total production is forecast at 30.69 million hectares, 6809Kg/hectare and 209 million MT, up -0.13%, 2.40% and 2.26% respectively. Specifically, the planting acreage and total production of keng rice registered 10.603 million hectares and 74.972 million MT, up 1.85% and 3.94% respectively. For indica rice, the planting acreage and total production registered 20.087 million hectares and 134 million MT, up -1.14% and 1.35% respectively.
 
Barley planting acreage shall continue declining in winter of 2014, as higher yield fields shall be planted wheat, rape and winter vegetables, which generate higher profit. The planting acreage is predicted to decline to 0.532 million hectares, total production, 1.821 million MT and unit yield, 3423kg/MT, down 5.10%, 7.04% and -2.04% respectively YOY. The production records as the lowest level in recent years.
 
In 2014, driven by marketization policy, domestic soybean price saw significant decline. In 2014, soybean planting acreages and total production shall reach 6.509million hectares and 11.575 million MT respectively, down 3.34% and 4.48% respectively, lowest decline rate in recent years. Continuous price increase since October drives increase of Potato planting acreage and production in 2014 to 5.601 million MT and 17.98 million MT, up 3.06% and 4.02% respectively.













From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”