Walnut grower Dan Cummings located near Chico is more optimistic.

“Generally, I think walnut yields are better than last year. The edible meat yields and color are better. The nut sizes are smaller and the jumbo count is not as great as the last several years.”

During most years, Cummings says bloom toward the end of pollination does not set a crop. But this year favorable conditions occurred throughout the entire blossom period. Even the later blooms set nuts.

Cummings, who also grows almonds, says almond growers have reported wide yield variations across California based on orchard locations. He does not believe walnut yields experienced as wide of swings.

Cummings believes the USDA walnut estimate is close to accurate.

As of the last day of the 2014-15 marketing season (Aug. 31), walnut handlers reported receipts totaling about 562.5 million pounds, just short of last year’s USDA objective estimate (570 million pounds)

U.S. exports of shelled walnuts for the 2014-2015 season (Sept. 1, 2014 -Aug. 31, 2015) was 31 percent higher, compared to the 2013-2014 season - reaching 529 million inshell equivalent pounds, according to the California Walnut Board.

Of the total shipments, about 333 million inshell equivalent pounds were exported while nearly 200 million pounds were sold domestically.

Although the 2015-2016 marketing year has just begun, many growers expect walnut prices to fall.

Wenger said, “What I’ve been hearing suggests that walnut prices could be lower – perhaps around $1.25 per pound for Chandlers which is down significantly from last year.”

He added, “It's still early to say but I think everyone can expect a pretty big drop off from last year. Last year’s prices were astronomical.”

Barton agrees, and sees long-term opportunities for walnuts. He points to increasing walnut demand by consumers. Research suggests that walnuts are a ‘super food.’

On the price side, Barton said, “There’s a new reality beginning to set in with grower prices. Prices are down now compared to two months ago so we expect the farm gate value to drop considerably.

“We're no doubt in a correction right now,” he concluded.