National Dairy Cattle Industrial Technology System Publishes Information on Dairy Industry in 2018

(1) Dairy cattle inventory: based on a survey of the System, dairy cattle inventory has been shrinking in recent years pursuant to environmental protection pressure, receding of smallholder farming and limit or refusal of milk collection by processing companies when there was seasonal oversupply. The combined number of dairy cattle of all breeds is around 10 million, of which Holstein around 5 million.
(2) Farming size: 4.5-5.0 million dairy cattle were reared on farms of over 100 inventory in 2018, of which 75% of the dairy cattle were on farms of over 500 inventory, which forms the backbone of dairy farming in China.
(3) Raw milk output: as per monitoring data on nearly 200 large modern farms by the System, the productivity of an adult cow is 8.5 tons, and it is estimated the commercial output of raw milk in 2018 should be 21-24 million tons. The System holds the opinion that the raw milk market in China has entered into a tight balance era.
(4) Milk price trend: the price trend of raw milk of nearly 200 large farms as monitored by the System is consistent with the monitoring result of the MOA national monitoring, a seasonal change which declines first and rises later is seen.
 
(5) Milk price level: the milk price of monitored farms was higher than the price monitored by MOA, the yearly average was 3.65 yuan/kg, 0.04 yuan/kg higher than 2017; it rose to 3.82 yuan/kg in December, the highest level since 2016.
Chart 2, MOA Monitored Price, Price of Monitored Farms of the National Dairy Cattle Industrial Technology System 
 
 
(6) Raw milk cost: in light of the monitoring data from the System, raw milk cost of large modern farms has been falling since September 2014 thanks to the improvement of management and technical level. The average cost of a large modern farm was 3.30 yuan/kg in 2018, 2.1% less from 2017.