BOABC Viewpoint: The outbreak of ASF led to the increase in production and price of poultry eggs

Affected by the outbreak of African swine fever, the annual inventory of reproductive sows fell by 9.5% from the previous year to about 32.2 million heads, the production of hogs was 652 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. It’s expected that the decrease in pig numbers will peak 50%-60%. It’s estimated that pork production in 2020 will decline about 25 million tons from 2018, there will be a huge gap in pork supply, which will result in a growth in the consumption of beef, mutton, poultry meat, aquatic products, poultry eggs and other substitutes. What impact will African swine fever have on poultry egg industry?
 
On the one hand, the production of poultry eggs will increase slightly. From 2010 to 2018, China’s production and consumption of poultry eggs basically kept stable with some rise. Poultry egg production increased to 31.28 million tons in 2018 from 27.63 million tons in 2010, realizing a CAGR of 1.56%. From 2010 to 2018, the per capita consumption of poultry eggs in China rose from 18.54 kg/person to 20.18 kg/person, and it is at the world's leading level. Under the current consumption habits, the growth of poultry egg consumption is limited. It is expected that the output of poultry eggs increase slightly, and will reach 34.16 million tons in 2020, which is equivalent to 21.94 kg/ person.
 
On the other hand, the price of poultry eggs will rise. The outbreak of African swine fever has led to a sharp growth in pork prices, which will drive up the price of eggs. Taking laying hens as an example, in October 2019, the purchase price of eggs was 9.99 yuan/kg, up 27.16% year-on-year. From January to October 2019, the average purchase price of eggs was 8.18 yuan/kg, up 9.50% over the same period last year. It is expected that the price of eggs will rise continuously in 2020.
 
At the same time, the size of newly-built layer farms is large, which will improve the development of scale farming nationwide. China's investment projects in egg industry have gradually increased since 2015, and the investment heat has continued to now. A large number of layer farms with an inventory of 1 million birds are built, and the scale of layer farming has improved. It is estimated that the number of layers of farms with more than 500,000 birds on hands will account for 23.75% of the total number in 2019, which is 5.9% higher than that in 2018.