Grain Production & Consumption in October 2013

By CnAgri2013-12-13 09:19:15 Print

According to historical data released by National Bureau of Statistics, grain consumption in October increased year-on-year,driven by recovery of feed consumption and industrial consumption. The consumption growth rate is not great. Domestic grain stocks increased month-on-month. The consumption coefficient declined slightly.
　　
Grain consumption for food use was 25.860 million MT in Oct., including 9.177 million MT consumed by rural households, 7.291 million MT by urban households and 9.144 million MT by the catering industry, up 0.38%, down 1.64%, up 2.90% and up 0.48% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Grain consumption for food use totaled 234.2 million MT in Jan. ~ Oct., a growth of 2.77% on the year-on-year basis.

In the first half year, avian flu influenced meat poultry products’ supply, grain consumption increased in genera. In recent, with recovery of meat and egg consumption, grain consumption declined.
　　
　　Grain consumption for feed: according to National Bureau of Statistics, meat production totaled 58.03 million MT in Jan-Oct, up 1.30% YOY and is estimated to be 83.68 million MT in the whole year. Live hog slaughtered by scaled enterprises registered 19.235 million heads, up 2.1% from last year. Based on meat production and slaughter in Jan-Sept., meat production is forecast at 7.8253 million in October, up 0.86 YOY. Live hog slaughter registered 60.09 million MT. According to China Ministry of Agriculture, live hog inventory of monitoring enterprises in Oct. increased 0.6% YOY. Social live hog inventory is forecast at 475.4 million heads, up 1.43% YOY. Annual growth rate of meat production is predicted to be 1.5%.
　　
Based on meat production, live hog inventory and classified feed consumption by scaled enterprises, feed consumption is forecast at 23.252 million MT, up 3.57% YOY; excluding consumption of imported soybean and other oil meal, actual grain consumption for feed  is 17.69 million MT, up 5.37% YOY. Feed consumption totaled 199 million MT in Jan-Oct., up 2.00% YOY, among which, grain consumption for feed registered 147 million MT, up 2.58% YOY.
　　
Asa for breeding profit, live hog price was RMB16.18/kg in Oct., up 9.19% YOY and down 0.06% MOM; monthly ratio between pork and grain is 6.66, the same with last month and up 12.16% YOY, stable at a high level.
　　
Later feed consumption: according to monitoring data by Ministry of Agriculture, inventory of fertile sow in Oct. declined 02% YOY and 1.4% MOM. In later period, livestock inventory and production shall decline after being stable for a while. Annual growth rate of live hog inventory and feed consumption both registered 1.5%. Grain consumption for by-products shall see significant growth and for feed is predicted to be 178 million MT, up 1.23% YOY, basically the same with last year.
　　
Grain consumption for alcohol production: as for fermented alcohol, the production of scaled enterprises, according to National Bureau of Statistics, registered 735.2 million jin in October with monthly growth rate of 10.29% and totaled 7.2997 billion jin in Jan-Oct. With annual growth rate of 5.34%; according to historical data, the production growth rate in Oct. was 4.4% YOY and 2.3% MOM and production in Jan-Oct. totaled 7.334 billion jin, up 7.94% YOY.
　　
As for white spirit, according to National Bureau of Statistics, the production registered 1.143 billion jin in Oct., up 8.26% YOY and totaled 9.6209 billion jin in Jan-Oct., up 7.36% YOY; according to historical data, the growth rate of production in October was 7.61% YOY, 2.8% MOM and production in Jan.-Oct. registered 10.109 billion jin, up 7.38% from last year.
　　
Calculated by 65% concentration of white spirit, alcohol production registered 742.8 million liters. Calculated by the direct fermentation ratio of 60%, production of alcohol produced by grain registered 1.1809 billion liters. Since producing 1 MT alcohol needs 3.2 MT grain, grain consumption for alcohol was 3.0231 million MT, up 11.81% YOY and 2.48% MOM; grain consumption for beer registered 0.6651 million MT. Grain consumption for liquor registered 3.6882 million MT in October, up 10.34% YOY and down 3.30% MOM and totaled 37.2612 million MT in Jan.-Oct., up 6.62% YOY.
　　
　　
Grain deep processing: starch price was RMB2881/MT in October, down 4.89% YOY and 1.84% MOM, without regard for RMB value change, down 3.17% YOY and 1.93% MOM. Price for alcohol rebounded in October, down 9.21% YOY and up 0.85% MOM, without regard for RMB value change, down 6.24% YOY and up 0.47% MOM.
　　
Domestic corn price was RMB2401/MT in October, down 0.58% YOY and 0.49% MOM,without regard for RMB value change, down 1.81% YOY and up 2.38% MOM. As for starch processed by domestic corn, the profit was RMB96/MT, profit of alcohol, RMB-396/MT and the profit margin was 3.32% and -6.84% respectively. Poor profit and loss in deep processing industry limit domestic corn’s consumption.
　　
Recently, corn reduction restrained its consumption in deep processing industry as well. Substantial import of dry cassava promoted increase of fermented alcohol production. Starch production is predicted to be 2.2184 million MT and grain consumption to be 3.31 million MT.

In comprehensive, grain consumption for industrial use registered 6.999 million MT in October, up 10.65% YOY and up 0.67% MOM, and 70.2528 million MT in Jan-Oct.. Import cease of American low-cost corn will influence deep processing but import of cheap cassava from southeastern Asia shall promote the production.

In overall, grain consumption totaled 56.58 million MT in Oct., grain stocks by month-end was 536.3 million MT and monthly consumption coefficient was 9.49%.

Fall grain harvest started in October and the quantity registered 181 million MT. In 2013, grain production accumulated to 517 million MT, including rice 194 million MT, corn, 19800MT, wheat, 98.53 million MT, barley, 1.523 million MT and other grains, 44.49 million MT.

In view of grain purchase in 2013, it registered 76.73 million MT by the end of October, of which 50.84 million MT was purchased by state-owned enterprise. Major grain stocks registered 490 million MT and 140 million MT in state-owned enterprises, 292 million MT in farmers and 58.61 million MT in other stocks.

According to national grain bureau, direct grain purchase by state-owned enterprises totaled 9.483 million MT in Aug., among which, Jiangxi and Hunan ranked top 2 with purchase of 1.911 million MT and 1.254 million MT respectively. Grain sale by state-owned enterprises totaled 17.262 million MT in Aug., among which, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang and Shandong ranked top 3 with sales of 2.088 million MT, 1.702 million MT and 1.413 million MT respectively.

In 2013/14, farmers’ grain sale ratio is 51.1%, basically the same with last year.

Grain safety index: in 2013, planting acreage of grain crops registered 112 million hectares and production is predicted to be 601.9 million MT, slightly up from last year. Grain import continued exceeding 15 million MT. Grain supply increased obviously, growth rate of total consumption slowed down and grain consumption for feed increased with livestock industry recovering, based on which, year-end stocks and safety index of stocks shall increase to 255 million MT and 42.5% respectively. 

From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”