China Grain Production Estimate by BOABC in 2013

By CnAgri2013-12-17 09:26:29 Print

According to BOABC’ monitoring, grain comprehensive price index increased slightly in November, promoting grain production in new year.

In Nov. grain comprehensive price index increased to RMB2588/MT by 3.32% YOY and 0.03% MOM. Average price was RMB2556/MT in May-Nov., up 5.16% YOY and 0.21% MOM deducting value change of RMB. Actual price increase is favorable for rising of farmers’ income and production stability in next year. In addition, fertilizer price declined 6.19% on year-on-year basis in Oct. 2013.

For different varieties: monthly wholesale price for wheat, paddy, corn and barley was RMB2548/MT, RMB2801/MT, RMB2373/MT and RMB1889/MT respectively, up 2.01%, 1.74%, 0.09% and 1.49% MOM and up 14.23%, 2.36%, 2.01% and 0.03% YOY respectively, deducting value change of RMB.

Grain price index rose and fertilizer price declined, favorable for planting income. In view of direct subsidy increase, farmers’ income is guaranteed, favorable for domestic grain production.

Grain Production:
According to preliminary data from National Bureau of Statistics and BOABC’s monitoring, agricultural planting acreage is estimated to be 165.5 million hectares in 2013 and the multiple cropping index is 136.0%, in which, grain planting acreage is 111.952 million hectares, up 0.67% from last year and the multiple cropping index is 91.48%. Grain production is expected to total 601.2 million MT in 2013 and the average unit yield is expected to reach 5377kg/hectare. The difficulty for grain planting acreage increase lies in the large occupation of arable land.
　　
Production by variety
In 2013, wheat planting acreage is 24.163 million hectares, down 0.44% from last year. Total production and unit yield register 118.2 million MT and 4892kg/hectare respectively, down 2.33% and 1.29% YOY, but still at a high level. Harvest acreage of winter wheat and spring wheat is 22.538 million and 1.625 million hectares, up 0.11% but down 7.40% respectively, total production is 112 million and 6.479 million MT respectively, down 2.31% and 2.61% respectively YOY and unit yield if 4957kg/hectare and 3987kg/hectare respectively, down 2.42% but  up 5.18%  respectively YOY. Adequate precipitation in NW is favorable for increase of unit yield, which restrains winter wheat production from excessive decline.
　　
But production of quality wheat sees significant decrease to 69.522 million MT, down 14.63% from last year.
　　
As for winter planting in 2014, significant growth of what price gives rise to planting income and price decline of fertilizer lowers down planting cost to a great extent.
　　
According to BOABC’ monitoring, winter wheat planting acreage shall increase to 22.639 million hectares, up 0.45% from last year, highest growth rate since 2009. The unit yield increases by 4.47% to 5179kg/hectare and total production reaches 117 million MT. As for spring wheat, price is predicted to increase greatly in Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. Spring wheat planting acreage sees significant growth to 1.729 million hectares, up 6.38% from last year. Total production is estimated to be 7.209 million MT and unit yield 4170kg/hectare, up 11.26% and 4.59% respectively. Wheat planting acreage is predicted to be 24.367 million hectares, up 0.85% YOY. Total production reaches 124 million MT and unit yield, 5107kg/MT, up 5.28% and 4.40% respectively YOY.
　　
Quality wheat planting acreage is predicted to soar to 85.426 million MT, up 22.88% from 2013/14.
　　
Corn production: corn harvest acreage is 36.403 million hectares, total production is 214 million MT and unit yield is 5868kg/hectare, up 3.92%, 3.89% and -0.03% respectively YOY. Spring corn planting acreage is 2.4174 million hectares, total production, 143 million MT and unit yield, 5924kg/hectare, up 4.36%, 5.48% and 1.07% respectively; summer corn planting acreage is 12.229 million hectares, total production, 70.41 million MT and unit yield, 5758kg/hectare, up 3.06%, 0.79% and -2.20% respectively YOY.
　　
Paddy production: paddy planting acreage is 30.73 million hectares in 2013, total production, 205 million MT and unit yield, 6678kg/hectare, up 1.97%, -1.47% and 0.47% respectively YOY.
　　
For paddy in different seasons: planting acreage for early rice is 57.92 million hectares and total production 34.074 million MT, up 0.47% and 2.34% respectively YOY; planting acreage for single-crop rice is 18.536 million hectares and total production 134 million MT, up 2.87% and 0.57% respectively YOY; planting acreage for late rice is 6.402 million hectares and total production 36.797 million MT, up 0.77% and-1.55% respectively YOY.
　　
For different rice varieties: planting acreage for keng rice is 10.41 million hectares and total production 72.597 million MT, up 7.18% and4.30% respectively YOY;planting acreage for indica rice is 20.32 million hectares and total production 133 million MT, with the latter down 1.51% YOY
　　
Planting acreage for coarse grain is 20.656 million hectares and total production 64.929 million MT, up -5.11% and10.61% respectively YOY, in which, planting acreage for barley is 0.5606 million hectares, total production 1.959 million MT and unit yield, 3495kg/hectare, down 8.95%, 9.97% and 1.11% respectively YOY. In 2014 winter, barley planting acreage is predicted to decline further more with price dropping and less policy support. Wheat, rape and winter vegetables’ planting acreage will increase with well profit and government support. Barley planting acreage is predicted to decline to 0.538 million hectares, total production, 1.799 million MT and unit yield, 3342kg/MT, down 4.01%, 8.21% and 4.37% respectively YOY.



From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”